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Covid-19 and Silicon Valley

   [14]March 26, 2020 [15]matloff

   Here is something you won’t read elsewhere: Silicon Valley leads the SF
   Bay Area in Covid-19 cases — leads by FAR. As of today, Santa Clara
   County has had 459 confirmed cases, and 17 deaths. That case total is
   more than triple the next-highest, 143 in San Mateo County, which
   adjoins Santa Clara County is also is the home to lots of high tech,
   e.g. Oracle. (SM County has only one death so far.)

   Silicon Valley, of course, is home to very large numbers of immigrant
   engineers from China, who have the means to make frequent trips to
   China to visit family, especially during Chinese New Year, when the
   virus started to spread like mad within China and started to do so in
   the US. Many also frequently travel to China on business, e.g. to
   confer on manufacturing operations for US products. This is in contrast
   to, say, San Francisco County, which has a large Chinese-American
   population but who travel much less to China.

   Mind you, the current crisis has had harmful fallout to many Chinese-
   and other East-Asian Americans, who are experiencing abuse ranging from
   mere suspicious looks to outright attacks. These started BEFORE Trump
   started using the term “Chinese virus,” but he certainly isn’t helping
   matters with his language. Trump wrote a tweet the other day in support
   of Asian-Americans, and I hope that means he’ll use a more judicious
   term from now on.

   Nevertheless, the “Chinese connection” is there and is clear as day.
   The Manhattan KS GOP official who [16]got into trouble for claiming the
   city doesn’t have a pandemic problem because there aren’t many Chinese
   people there may have been underestimating the power of the virus but
   his statement did, as the Chinese say 有道理, i.e. have some truth to it.

   To be sure, there is a REASON why I like living in the Bay Area rather
   than Manhattan KS. (Kansas State University, so conceivably I could
   move there). I treasure living in a region with a large Chinese
   population and other types of diversity. But globalization is not free
   of problems.

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13 thoughts on “Covid-19 and Silicon Valley”

    1.
   [20]Norm Matloff: Covid-19 and Silicon Valley – India Inc Blog says:
       [21]March 26, 2020 at 4:13 am
       […] Covid-19 and Silicon Valley […]
       [22]LikeLike
       [23]Reply
    2.
   JRStern says:
       [24]March 26, 2020 at 4:41 am
       Norm, do you have any comments on the statistics, the epidemiology?
       Thanks.
       [25]LikeLike
       [26]Reply
          +
        [27]matloff says:
            [28]March 26, 2020 at 5:42 am
            Yes. Two BIG problems: (a) Just far too many variables to
            account for, esp. in the analyses comparing one region to
            another. (b) The mathematical models are being extended beyond
            their range of validity.
            [29]LikeLiked by [30]1 person
            [31]Reply
    3.
   drgenenelson says:
       [32]March 26, 2020 at 5:49 am
       Dear Norm: Thank you for your reporting. It helps to provide
       context for a Los Angeles Times news story regarding the Kaiser
       Hospital in San Jose with about half of its patients ill with
       COVID-19.
       Nearly half of all patients at one Kaiser hospital believed to have
       Coronavirus
       By RONG-GONG LIN IISTAFF WRITER
       MARCH 25, 2020 1:33 PM
       [33]https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-25/suspected-o
       r-confirmed-coronavirus-patients-fill-up
       Once I had a copy of the article, I immediately forwarded it to
       each of the members of the San Luis Obispo County, California Board
       of Supervisors. I’m also refreshing my knowledge of virology and
       immunology. My suggested reading assignment is to read about the
       1918-1920 influenza pandemic. Wikipedia is a good place to start.
       We have challenging times ahead.
       [34]LikeLiked by [35]1 person
       [36]Reply
          +
        [37]matloff says:
            [38]March 26, 2020 at 7:02 am
            Thanks, Gene, had not seen that. I presume not many cases
            around SLO?
            [39]LikeLiked by [40]1 person
            [41]Reply
               o
             drgenenelson says:
                 [42]March 26, 2020 at 7:23 am
                 Norm: Not yet. There will be as a consequence of
                 infective COVID-19 carriers being asymptomatic. Some
                 carriers will never show symptoms. If the population
                 becomes careless or indifferent regarding “physical
                 distancing” there will be replays of the scenes in Italy
                 where the morgues are being overwhelmed. :-(.
                 In NIH Director Francis Collins’s 03 March 2020
                 “Director’s Blog” entry, he projects it will be at least
                 a year until a COVID-19 vaccine is widely available. As
                 you will see, that is a “best case” scenario.
                 Structural Biology Points Way to Coronavirus Vaccine
                 Posted on March 3rd, 2020 by Dr. Francis Collins
                 [43]https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/03/03/structural-b
                 iology-points-way-to-coronavirus-vaccine/
                 Here’s a somewhat more technical article from 14 years
                 ago.
                 [44]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/
                 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics
                 Jeffery K. Taubenberger * and David M. Morens†
                 Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Jan; 12(1): 15–22.
                 Abstract
                 “Curiouser and curiouser!” cried Alice
                 Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 1865
                 An estimated one third of the world’s population (or ≈500
                 million persons) were infected and had clinically
                 apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 1918–1919 influenza
                 pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe.
                 Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in
                 other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were
                 estimated at ≈50 million (5–7) and were arguably as high
                 as 100 million (7)……
                 [45]LikeLiked by [46]1 person
                 [47]Reply
    4.
   Netmouser says:
       [48]March 26, 2020 at 12:36 pm
       Norm, I wish you and your family well, living and working where you
       do. I did move to PA last October as my retirement state. But in NJ
       I visited Parsippany a couple of days each week. There is a large
       Asian population living there, given all the big corporations in
       north NJ. The town’s senior center was dominated by those with
       Chinese heritage. I had to admire these seniors for their focus on
       health. They socialized at the center, but also played pool and
       ping pong (so popular there are multiple rooms for these), and held
       frequent Tai Chi classes. Some non-Asians joined in. I attended a
       senior fitness class there. So far, in NJ’s papers (I still
       subscribe to two NJ e-papers in part to support the papers), I do
       not see this town having any positive virus cases announced. And NJ
       cases are beginning to soar being next to NYC.
       Linda K.
       [49]LikeLiked by [50]1 person
       [51]Reply
          +
        [52]matloff says:
            [53]March 28, 2020 at 8:06 pm
            Thanks for the comments, some needed good news. However, I
            think you missed this part of my post: “Silicon Valley, of
            course, is home to very large numbers of immigrant engineers
            from China, who have the means to make frequent trips to China
            to visit family, especially during Chinese New Year, when the
            virus started to spread like mad within China and started to
            do so in the US. Many also frequently travel to China on
            business, e.g. to confer on manufacturing operations for US
            products. This is in contrast to, say, San Francisco County,
            which has a large Chinese-American population but who travel
            much less to China.”
            [54]LikeLiked by [55]1 person
            [56]Reply
    5.
   [57]amyinnh says:
       [58]March 26, 2020 at 6:56 pm
       Globalism. The elite get the gold mine, the rest of us get the
       shaft.
       [59]LikeLiked by [60]1 person
       [61]Reply
    6.
   PabloCruise says:
       [62]March 26, 2020 at 7:25 pm
       Calling it the Wuhan Virus or Flu should not be a problem as that
       is specific to the region of origin. So many viruses come out of
       China, calling it the China Flu is confusing with other strains,
       not to mention the offense Chinese people may feel.
       That being said, I’m half-Spanish and never took offense to the
       term “Spanish Flu”.
       Still this epidemic demonstrates the need for secure borders. When
       Trump said he was closing off travel from China in January it was a
       wise move. The SJWs came out of the woodwork with the racist
       accusations. But we’re seeing that other countries that did the
       same, like Russia and Eastern Europe, are experiencing a very low
       number of cases. It is just common sense.
       [63]LikeLiked by [64]1 person
       [65]Reply
    7.
   [66]FutureUser says:
       [67]March 28, 2020 at 1:25 am
       I’ve been watching the trends (not forecasts) at Worldometers, and
       I wish they would break out the stats by state for the U.S. It’s
       possible some states are peaking early due to local rules, but I
       can’t tell from the charts. Would be nice to know who’s doing a
       good job….
       [68]LikeLike
       [69]Reply
    8.
   Rob says:
       [70]March 28, 2020 at 5:41 pm
       Granted the Chinese penchants for a variety of wild life as food is
       a cause, the Spanish flu supposedly started in the American
       mid-west. Globalization has consequences. But we should respond as
       one world to cope, mitigate the dangers and reap the benefits. The
       pandemic illustrates the need for greater world cooperation. It’s
       not the only universal danger we face: cue climate change,
       over-population, pollution of the oceans, etc.
       [71]LikeLike
       [72]Reply
          +
        [73]matloff says:
            [74]March 28, 2020 at 7:53 pm
            Those who say definitively that the Spanish flue started in
            Kansas tend to be the types that would love to say, “See,
            America, you’re not so great either.” Maybe they’re right,
            maybe they’re wrong. See
            [75]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
            [76]LikeLiked by [77]1 person
            [78]Reply

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