[1]Skip to main content Main Menu * [2]Home * [3]Weather * [4]Climate * [5]Ocean & Coasts * [6]Fisheries * [7]Satellites * [8]Research * [9]Marine & Aviation * [10]Charting * [11]Sanctuaries * [12]Education * [13]News and features * [14]Tools & resources * [15]About our agency U.S. flag An official website of the United States government (BUTTON) Here's how you know we're official Dot gov Official websites use .gov A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. SSL Secure .gov websites use HTTPS A lock ( lock icon ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.. Find your local weather Change location: Enter City, State or ZIP code ____________________ GO * [16]News * [17]Tools * [18]About [19]NOAA mobile logo [20]NOAA logo [21]National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [22]U.S. Department of Commerce Enter Search Terms ____________________ Submit Breadcrumb 1. [23]Home 2. [24]News & Features NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season El Nino, above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage Focus areas: [25]Weather [26]Climate Topics: [27]hurricane season [28]hurricanes [29]forecasting [30]climate outlooks Share: [31]Share to Twitter [32]Share to Facebook [33]Share by email [34]Print May 25, 2023 NOAA GOES satellite captures Hurricane Ian as it made landfall on the barrier island of Cayo Costa in southwest Florida on September 28, 2022. NOAA GOES satellite captures Hurricane Ian as it made landfall on the barrier island of Cayo Costa in southwest Florida on September 28, 2022. [35]Download Image RESOURCES IFRAME: [36]/media/oembed?url=https%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DC1WeK1HkGGA &max_width=0&max_height=0&hash=nEHgxs4lt0K9MEDaWBEnuPWhUfXg9CmAZTn-MyJz 1PA Video: 2023 NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Briefing [37]Spanish language infographic: 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook summary [38]Spanish language infographic: List of 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names chosen by WMO NOAA’s [39]summary of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season [40]2023 central Pacific hurricane season outlook [41]NOAA’s new hurricane forecast model: A conversation with the lead modeler A [42]mapping tool for U.S. state and county-level information on a population’s risk for, and vulnerability to, major tropical cyclones An [43]interactive website to track the paths of hurricanes this season Links to [44]hurricane safety and preparedness materials [45]National Hurricane Center homepage for real-time updates on active systems [46]Hurricane season: A resource guide for reporters and media NOAA forecasters with the [47]Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA's 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA's 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (Image credit: NOAA) [48]Download Image “Thanks to the Commerce Department and NOAA’s critical investments this year in scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling, NOAA will be able to deliver even more accurate forecasts, helping ensure communities have the information they need to prepare for and respond to the destructive economic and ecological impacts of Atlantic hurricanes,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. (Image credit: NOAA) [49]Download Image The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year's overall forecast for a near-normal season. After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for [50]El Nino to develop this summer, [51]which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. El Nino’s potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin. Those conditions include the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea which creates more energy to fuel storm development. These factors are part of the longer term variability in Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development — known as the high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes — which have been producing more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995. “With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more crucial,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “To that end, this year we are operationalizing a new hurricane forecast model and extending the tropical cyclone outlook graphic from five to seven days, which will provide emergency managers and communities with more time to prepare for storms.” This summer, NOAA will implement a series of upgrades and improvements. NOAA will expand the capacity of its operational supercomputing system by 20%. This increase in computing capability will enable NOAA to improve and run more complex forecast models, including significant model upgrades this hurricane season: * In late June, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will become operational. HAFS will run this season in tandem with the currently operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model System and Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, but eventually will become NOAA’s primary hurricane model. Retrospective analysis of tropical storms and hurricanes from the 2020-2022 seasons show that this model has a 10-15% improvement in track forecasts over existing operational models. This new model was jointly created by NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory [52]Hurricane Modeling and Prediction Program and [53]NOAA’s National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center. * The Probabilistic Storm Surge model [54]upgrade on May 2, advances [55]storm surge forecasting for the contiguous U.S. and new forecasts for surge, tide and waves for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Forecasters now have the ability to run the model for two storms simultaneously. This model provides forecasters with the likelihood, or probability, of various flooding scenarios including a near worst-case scenario to help communities prepare for all potential outcomes. Additional upgrades or new tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting include: * The National Hurricane Center’s [56]Tropical Weather Outlook graphic, which shows tropical cyclone formation potential, has expanded the forecast range from five to seven days. * Over the last 10 years, flooding from tropical storm rainfall was the single deadliest hazard. To give communities more time to prepare, the Weather Prediction Center is extending the [57]Excessive Rainfall Outlook an additional two days, now providing forecasts up to five days in advance. The outlook shows general areas at risk for flash flooding due to excessive rainfall. * The National Weather Service will unveil a new generation of forecast flood inundation mapping for portions of Texas and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in September 2023. These forecast maps will extend to the rest of the U.S. by 2026. Forecast flood inundation maps will show the extent of flooding at the street level. NOAA will continue improving new and current observing systems critical in understanding and forecasting hurricanes. Two projects underway this season include: * New [58]small aircraft drone systems, the deployment of additional [59]Saildrones and [60]underwater gliders, and [61]WindBorne global sounding balloons. These new [62]technologies will advance our knowledge of hurricanes, fill critical data gaps and improve hurricane forecast accuracy. * The modernization and upgrade of the [63]Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array. The upgrade will provide additional capabilities, updated instruments, more strategic placement of buoys and higher-frequency observations. Data from these buoys are used to forecast El Nino and La Nina, which can influence hurricane activity. “As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials. Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “Visit [64]ready.gov or [65]listo.gov for readiness resources, and get real time emergency alerts by downloading the FEMA App. Actions taken today can save your life when disaster strikes. The time to prepare is now.” NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA also issues [66]seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2023 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season. Media contact [67]Allison Santorelli, (301) 427-9000 Related Features // [68]NOAA predicts a near- or above-normal 2023 central Pacific hurricane season Satellite image of Hurricane Lane, a category 5 hurricane passed within 150 miles of the Main Hawaiian Islands. It set the state record for tropical cyclone rainfall (58 inches) and caused over $7 million in damage. Image from NOAA’s GOES-West satellite, August 22, 2018. [69]What to watch for: El Nino likely to develop this summer This world map shows sea surface temperature anomalies during one of the strongest El Nino events on record in 2016. The red colors indicate warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, while blue values are cooler-than-average temperatures. RESOURCES IFRAME: [70]/media/oembed?url=https%3A//www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DC1WeK1HkGGA &max_width=0&max_height=0&hash=nEHgxs4lt0K9MEDaWBEnuPWhUfXg9CmAZTn-MyJz 1PA Video: 2023 NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Briefing [71]Spanish language infographic: 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook summary [72]Spanish language infographic: List of 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names chosen by WMO NOAA’s [73]summary of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season [74]2023 central Pacific hurricane season outlook [75]NOAA’s new hurricane forecast model: A conversation with the lead modeler A [76]mapping tool for U.S. state and county-level information on a population’s risk for, and vulnerability to, major tropical cyclones An [77]interactive website to track the paths of hurricanes this season Links to [78]hurricane safety and preparedness materials [79]National Hurricane Center homepage for real-time updates on active systems [80]Hurricane season: A resource guide for reporters and media Last updated May 25, 2023 [81]Have a comment on this page? Let us know. [82]NOAA Home Science. Service. Stewardship. * [83]News * [84]Tools * [85]About * [86]Resources for Tribes * [87]Protecting Your Privacy * [88]FOIA * [89]Information Quality * [90]Accessibility * [91]Guidance * [92]Budget & Performance * [93]Disclaimer * [94]EEO * [95]No-Fear Act * [96]USA.gov * [97]Ready.gov * [98]Employee Check-In * [99]Staff Directory * [100]Contact Us * [101]Need Help? * [102]COVID-19 hub for NOAA personnel offsite link [103]Stay connected to NOAA [104]NOAA on Twitter [105]NOAA on Facebook [106]NOAA on Instagram [107]NOAA on YouTube How are we doing? [108]Feedback opens in new window References Visible links 1. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook#main 2. https://www.noaa.gov/ 3. https://www.noaa.gov/weather 4. https://www.noaa.gov/climate 5. https://www.noaa.gov/ocean-coasts 6. https://www.noaa.gov/fisheries 7. https://www.noaa.gov/satellites 8. https://www.noaa.gov/research 9. https://www.noaa.gov/marine-aviation 10. https://www.noaa.gov/charting 11. https://www.noaa.gov/sanctuaries 12. https://www.noaa.gov/education 13. https://www.noaa.gov/news-features 14. https://www.noaa.gov/tools-and-resources 15. https://www.noaa.gov/about-our-agency 16. https://www.noaa.gov/news-features 17. https://www.noaa.gov/tools-and-resources 18. https://www.noaa.gov/about-our-agency 19. https://www.noaa.gov/ 20. https://www.noaa.gov/ 21. https://www.noaa.gov/ 22. https://www.commerce.gov/ 23. https://www.noaa.gov/ 24. https://www.noaa.gov/news-features 25. https://www.noaa.gov/weather 26. https://www.noaa.gov/climate 27. https://www.noaa.gov/topic-tags/hurricane-season 28. https://www.noaa.gov/topic-tags/hurricanes 29. https://www.noaa.gov/topic-tags/forecasting 30. https://www.noaa.gov/topic-tags/climate-outlooks 31. https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook?fbclid=IwAR3CtSe_rqv2-YC1g5agGUk8umMbj2thbIKE8Xzbv_XF6v5URLYt_ID213E_aem_th_AbIs3zR-j0SSTr9FZIrf-yN5I69vez2CxCJPaXr7C8q7Y4SnzMXYZDVnfCnNG5tXw_c 32. https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook?fbclid=IwAR3CtSe_rqv2-YC1g5agGUk8umMbj2thbIKE8Xzbv_XF6v5URLYt_ID213E_aem_th_AbIs3zR-j0SSTr9FZIrf-yN5I69vez2CxCJPaXr7C8q7Y4SnzMXYZDVnfCnNG5tXw_c 33. mailto:?body=https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook?fbclid=IwAR3CtSe_rqv2-YC1g5agGUk8umMbj2thbIKE8Xzbv_XF6v5URLYt_ID213E_aem_th_AbIs3zR-j0SSTr9FZIrf-yN5I69vez2CxCJPaXr7C8q7Y4SnzMXYZDVnfCnNG5tXw_c 34. javascript:window.print() 35. https://www.noaa.gov/media/image_download/260b145e-cf5a-4ee7-9eb4-81ba745a2c72 36. https://www.noaa.gov/media/oembed?url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1WeK1HkGGA&max_width=0&max_height=0&hash=nEHgxs4lt0K9MEDaWBEnuPWhUfXg9CmAZTn-MyJz1PA 37. https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2023-05/IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2023-SPANISH-Pie-052422-NOAA.PNG 38. https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2023-05/IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2023-SPANISH-Names-052422-NOAA.PNG 39. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/damaging-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-draws-to-close 40. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-near-or-above-normal-2023-central-pacific-hurricane-season 41. https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2996/NOAA’s-new-hurricane-forecast-model-A-conversation-with-the-lead-modeler 42. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/mapping 43. https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/real-time-imagery/hurricane-tracker 44. https://www.noaa.gov/hurricane-prep 45. http://www.hurricanes.gov/ 46. https://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/hurricane-season-resource-guide-for-reporters-and-media 47. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ 48. https://www.noaa.gov/media/image_download/f16ad2e3-0ff0-4570-9f98-445c7d990083 49. https://www.noaa.gov/media/image_download/8a809b03-b892-4fd9-b9b9-c1ccb7d07ba1 50. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml 51. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-niño-and-la-niña-hurricane-season#:~:text=In addition to enhanced vertical,and increasing the atmospheric stability. 52. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane-modeling-prediction/ 53. https://emc.ncep.noaa.gov/emc_new.php 54. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-upgrades-model-to-improve-storm-surge-forecasting 55. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/ 56. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php 57. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero 58. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/altius-drone-flies-hurricane-ian/?simply_static_page=8193044 59. https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/saildrone-hurricane/ 60. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane-glider-project/ 61. https://wpo.noaa.gov/windborne-weather-balloon-reaches-new-heights/ 62. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/noaa-research-improves-hurricane-forecasts/ 63. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-tech/landmark-buoys-across-tropical-pacific-ocean-get-makeover 64. http://ready.gov/ 65. http://listo.gov/ 66. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/index.shtml 67. mailto:nws.pa@noaa.gov 68. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-near-or-above-normal-2023-central-pacific-hurricane-season 69. https://www.noaa.gov/news/what-to-watch-for-el-nino-likely-to-develop-summer 70. https://www.noaa.gov/media/oembed?url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1WeK1HkGGA&max_width=0&max_height=0&hash=nEHgxs4lt0K9MEDaWBEnuPWhUfXg9CmAZTn-MyJz1PA 71. https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2023-05/IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2023-SPANISH-Pie-052422-NOAA.PNG 72. https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2023-05/IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2023-SPANISH-Names-052422-NOAA.PNG 73. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/damaging-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-draws-to-close 74. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-near-or-above-normal-2023-central-pacific-hurricane-season 75. https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2996/NOAA’s-new-hurricane-forecast-model-A-conversation-with-the-lead-modeler 76. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/mapping 77. https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/real-time-imagery/hurricane-tracker 78. https://www.noaa.gov/hurricane-prep 79. http://www.hurricanes.gov/ 80. https://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/hurricane-season-resource-guide-for-reporters-and-media 81. mailto:webmaster@noaa.gov?subject=Comment about page at https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook?fbclid=IwAR3CtSe_rqv2-YC1g5agGUk8umMbj2thbIKE8Xzbv_XF6v5URLYt_ID213E_aem_th_AbIs3zR-j0SSTr9FZIrf-yN5I69vez2CxCJPaXr7C8q7Y4SnzMXYZDVnfCnNG5tXw_c&body=I have a comment on the Web page at https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook?fbclid=IwAR3CtSe_rqv2-YC1g5agGUk8umMbj2thbIKE8Xzbv_XF6v5URLYt_ID213E_aem_th_AbIs3zR-j0SSTr9FZIrf-yN5I69vez2CxCJPaXr7C8q7Y4SnzMXYZDVnfCnNG5tXw_c: 82. https://www.noaa.gov/ 83. https://www.noaa.gov/news-features 84. https://www.noaa.gov/tools-and-resources 85. https://www.noaa.gov/about-our-agency 86. https://www.noaa.gov/legislative-and-intergovernmental-affairs/noaa-tribal-resources-updates 87. https://www.noaa.gov/protecting-your-privacy 88. https://www.noaa.gov/information-technology/foia 89. https://www.noaa.gov/organization/information-technology/policy-oversight/information-quality 90. https://www.noaa.gov/accessibility 91. https://www.noaa.gov/guidance 92. https://www.noaa.gov/budget-finance-performance 93. https://www.noaa.gov/disclaimer 94. https://www.noaa.gov/inclusion-and-civil-rights 95. https://www.noaa.gov/organization/inclusion-and-civil-rights/no-fear-act 96. https://www.usa.gov/ 97. https://www.ready.gov/ 98. https://www.noaa.gov/organization/information-technology/emergency-information-for-noaa-employees 99. https://nsd.rdc.noaa.gov/ 100. https://www.noaa.gov/contact-us 101. https://www.noaa.gov/need-help 102. https://sites.google.com/noaa.gov/ohcs/current-event 103. https://www.noaa.gov/stay-connected 104. https://twitter.com/NOAA 105. https://www.facebook.com/NOAA 106. https://www.instagram.com/noaa 107. https://www.youtube.com/usnoaagov 108. https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScM7iupnUIPRBcjKSe7l7elk1roiNtv1hmiPxOKo1afqX1OMg/viewform?usp=sf_link?Location=ocea Hidden links: 110. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook#top