Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Sep 25 2025 08:21:52

ACUS02 KWNS 250547
SWODY2
SPC AC 250546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico on Friday.

....Synopsis...
Closed upper lows are forecast to develop near California and the
Tennessee Valley on Friday. A cold front will linger near the
Southeast Coast and another cold front will traverse the northern
Plains. Otherwise, the surface pattern will remain quite nebulous.

....Southwest...
Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected by mid-day
Friday as monsoon moisture is drawn north ahead of the closed upper
low. This will result in widespread thunderstorm activity,
potentially starting by late morning. Mid level flow between 30 and
40 knots will round the base of the mid-level trough and overspread
southern Arizona. This may provide sufficient shear for a few
organized storms/transient supercells. Mid-level lapse rates will
continue to steepen through the day which, when combined with some
organized storm potential, may result in some large hail. In
addition, the steep lapse rates and hot/dry sub-cloud layer may
result in some stronger downdrafts capable of severe wind gusts.

....Southeast...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop along a cold front near
the southeast US coast on Friday. Minimal inhibition with at least
some weak upper-level support should result in thunderstorm
development along the front Friday afternoon/evening. Very poor
lapse rates may limit overall updraft intensity despite modest
deep-layer shear. A few stronger cells may be possible, but the
overall severe weather threat along this front should remain low.

...Bentley.. 09/25/2025

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