Subj : Flood Potential FL
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon Oct 06 2025 09:31:01

AWUS01 KWNH 061210
FFGMPD
FLZ000-061809-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1160
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of Palm Beach & Broward Counties in FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061209Z - 061809Z

Summary...Occasional convective bands could continue to set up in
and near the Gold Coast of FL, possibly into early this afternoon.
 Hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" could lead to
isolated occurences of flash flooding.

Discussion...An upper level disturbance across North FL combined
with precipitable water values ~2.25", 2000+ J/kg of ML CAPE, and
effective bulk shear of 20kt or so has led to the development and
fading of a couple convective bands across east-central Palm Beach
and northeast Broward Counties, downwind of the northwest Bahamas
and within an area of low-level convergence near a stationary
front.  A more active convective band lies offshore Broward County
at the time of this discussion's writing.  Hourly rain estimates
have approached 2" with the Palm Beach county band and above 1"
near Deerfield Beach.

The expectation is for convective bands to occasionally shift
south/reorganize in different locations with time, primarily
across Broward County, though additional activity in southeast
Palm Beach County can't be ruled out.  The mesoscale guidance (via
the HREF and REFS probabilities) indicate the threat of heavy
rainfall in and near the Gold Coast perhaps as late as 18z with
some possible southward shift/reorganization which seems to follow
a slight southward nudge of the highest moisture in the region. 
Until the bands dissipate or become less organized at some point
this afternoon, hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" could
lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   26758005 26498002 25958013 26038037 26588037 
            26738031 

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