Subj : Flood Potential So CA
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Oct 14 2025 08:12:26

AWUS01 KWNH 141239
FFGMPD
CAZ000-141838-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1196
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
839 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas affected...Southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141238Z - 141838Z

Summmary...A band of showers and thunderstorms should continue to
move east with time.  Hourly rain amounts up to 1" and local
totals in the 2-4" range are possible, which would be most
problematic in area burn scars.

Discussion...A narrow plume of moisture and instability near an
incoming front and ahead of a cold low to the west-northwest of
San Luis Obispo is expected to continue moving eastward through
southern CA this morning.  Precipitable water values of 1-1.1" per
GPS data and MU CAPE of 250+ J/kg exist in this region.

HREF guidance shows a high chance of 0.5"+ in an hour, though very
low chances of 1"+, which fits the available ingredients.  As
instability winnows with time, the potential for 1" amounts should
decrease.  The mesoscale guidance suggests local amounts in the
2-4" during the next six hours.  Locations with the most concern
would be area burn scars, which would be more susceptible to
runoff/debris flows. 

Roth

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34891939 34771818 34551743 34491729 34311662 
            33891676 33151731 33591833 33631836 33941868 
            34001916 34191957 

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