Subj : DAY1 2/5 Risk Area Posted
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Oct 23 2025 08:38:16

ACUS01 KWNS 231225
SWODY1
SPC AC 231223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon into the
overnight hours across the southern Great Plains.

....Southern Great Plains...
Morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low near the
NV/UT/AZ border and model guidance shows this feature moving east
into southern CO by late tonight.  Southerly low-level flow is
forecast to gradually increase through the evening and aid in
moisture advecting northward from south-central TX (12.5 g/kg lowest
100-mb mean mixing ratio via the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob) into
northwest TX and southern OK.  Models continue to show only weak lee
cyclogenesis, but the pronounced increase of a LLJ and associated
low-level warm advection will aid in storm development and focus
severe potential late this afternoon but especially into the
evening/overnight.

A southwest-northeast oriented boundary will extend from the TX
South Plains into southwest OK by mid afternoon.  The stronger
heating and moisture increase will likely set up along and south of
the boundary.  The latest forecast soundings suggest supercells
capable of a threat for large hail will be the primary risk from the
TX South Plains northeast into southwest OK during the evening.
Some enlargement of the hodograph and moistening low levels could
yield an isolated risk for a tornado, in addition to localized
severe gusts with the stronger storms.  An increase in convective
coverage is expected through the late evening as the LLJ and
associated warm advection promote clustering and messy storm modes
with time, coincident with a waning overall severe threat into the
overnight.

Farther west, diurnally-driven storms will likely develop in closer
proximity to the mid-level cold pocket over the southern Rockies.
An isolated risk for marginally severe hail/wind is possible with
this activity before subsiding during the evening.

...Smith/Bentley.. 10/23/2025

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