Subj : DAY1 2/5 Risk Area Posted
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Oct 26 2025 09:02:25

ACUS01 KWNS 261220
SWODY1
SPC AC 261219

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today along
portions of the central Gulf Coast.  The primary hazards are a
couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts.  A risk for a few stronger
storms may linger tonight near the coast.

....Central Gulf Coast...
IR satellite and lightning data this morning show a linear cluster
of strong to severe thunderstorms extending northward from the
continental shelf waters northward into southeast LA and southern
MS.  Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows the thunderstorm activity is
located within a low-level warm conveyor to the southeast of a mid-
to upper-level cyclone over OK.

Surface observations at 12 UTC this morning show the northward
extent of rich low-level moisture (i.e., 68-72 deg F dewpoints) is
confined south of a maritime warm front that is draped
west-northwest near the LA/MS border to the east-southeast and to
the south of the FL Panhandle.  A persistent fetch of southerly
low-level confluent flow off the Gulf will maintain adequate
buoyancy despite the presence of widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms.  Enlarged hodographs and moist/weakly buoyant
profiles will support intermittent supercell structure with the
stronger updrafts through the morning.  An attendant risk for a
couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts will likely continue
through the morning and perhaps midday hours before a possible
waning in storm intensity later today.  As the upper system over OK
this morning migrates eastward across the Ozarks, a re-invigoration
of storm intensity may occur tonight in southern AL into the FL
Panhandle.  An isolated risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a
tornado could develop.

Elsewhere across the Lower 48, quiescent conditions for severe
thunderstorms will prevail.

...Smith/Weinman.. 10/26/2025

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