Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Oct 28 2025 08:44:30

ACUS01 KWNS 281246
SWODY1
SPC AC 281245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA/ARKLATEX...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado risk will be possible mainly during the mid/late afternoon
and evening across east/southeast Texas and Louisiana.

....East/Southeast Texas to ArkLaTex/Louisiana...
Large-scale trough amplification will steadily occur from the Great
Plains toward the Ozarks/Mid-South through tonight. A related
southeastward-moving cold front will reach the Lower Mississippi
Valley by this evening, intercepting a relatively moist air mass
(mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) that will continue to advect
northward across southeast/east Texas and southern/western
Louisiana. Ample warm-sector pre-frontal heating will occur into the
afternoon particularly across east/southeast Texas, where
mixed-layer buoyancy may exceed 2000 J/kg MLCAPE.

Increasing storm development/intensification is expected into
mid/late afternoon near the advancing front, with strengthening
winds aloft (45+ kt effective shear) supportive of organized storms
including a few supercells. Any such supercells could pose a risk
for large hail, and possibly some tornado risk. Damaging winds may
also occur as storms increase/merge and spread east-southward from
far east/southeast Texas into Louisiana by early/mid-evening.
Current thinking is the overall risk will remain relatively
isolated, but subsequent outlooks will reevaluate any need for
somewhat higher probabilities on a sub-regional basis.

...Guyer/Weinman.. 10/28/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

.