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                                                             on Gopher (inofficial)
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       COMMENT PAGE FOR:
  HTML   Can “second life” EV batteries work as grid-scale energy storage?
       
       
        sciencesama wrote 7 hours 54 min ago:
        Alao you can get a 10kv new battery for less than 2.5 (deye)
       
        declan_roberts wrote 10 hours 1 min ago:
        I've spoken to people about starting a Tesla EV battery replacement
        business here. Battery replacement on a Tesla is a pretty simple
        process that can be done by one person in about 4 hours.
        
        The problem is that it's still really hard to get your hands on salvage
        Tesla batteries. Enthusiasts and hackers snatch them up quickly and the
        used price is not very competitive with a new EV replacement from
        Tesla.
       
        metalman wrote 16 hours 58 min ago:
        NO! first
        
        only if industry and government grow some gonads and fully standardise
        the cells, and hardware
        for battery packs to allow for quick and easy dissasembly, testing,
        repair, and reuse, for off grid, and secondary mobile use, as industry
        will never trust used components for primary aplications,
        it is impossible to overstate how allergic industry is to this.....
        
        second
        sodium is comming NOW!, and it is cheaper and safer.
       
          Xemplolo wrote 14 hours 57 min ago:
          "NO!" while companies already do this successfully.
          
          But hey, why not being negative first eh? ;P
       
            metalman wrote 3 hours 55 min ago:
            successfull?, maybe, we will see  if fires, insurance, and end of
            life disposal costs leave any roe, plus there are no large scale
            used car battery grid storage plants, just green washing for data
            centers, where they are most definitly worried about fires, given
            the huge spacing between units,
             green washing/cred,scamenomics,, but most certainly, not grid
            scale
       
        janosch_123 wrote 17 hours 13 min ago:
        Https://allye.com are assembling a 1 megawatt hour unit. I got a tour
        last week, super exciting.
        
        They raised another $2.5M round too.
        
        Fellten and Allye are the biggest two here in the UK I think.
       
        Havoc wrote 17 hours 24 min ago:
        The model makes intuitive sense. Just a question of timing and scale
       
        Gabrys1 wrote 17 hours 40 min ago:
        > Can “second life” EV batteries work as grid-scale energy storage?
        
        Yes.
        
        Thank you
       
        michidk wrote 18 hours 30 min ago:
        see
        
  HTML  [1]: https://stabl.com/
       
        pensatoio wrote 1 day ago:
        What we really need is standard two way charging on these cars. Every
        home with an EV should have a backup battery built into the deal.
       
        casey2 wrote 1 day ago:
        Not second life, but first life. All EVs and charging stations should
        be reversible. In a world where fossil fuels cost their true value
        (~10x as much) and people still drive this would be a necessity for
        electricity generation
       
        AtlasBarfed wrote 1 day ago:
        I think car cells will be much more useful if they are packaged as
        replacement batteries for all the various battery powered tools,
        ebikes, etc.
        
        There's a consumer profit margin to absorb the repackaging and
        teardown.
        
        Maybe for home grid batteries they'll work too. Again, a consumer
        margin.
        
        Sodium Ion and other grid-specific storage will simply be too cheap for
        secondhand EV batteries to compete. And the retiring cells won't be any
        better in density and will be less safe than the higher density sodium
        ion and LFP that is hitting the market.
       
        HocusLocus wrote 1 day ago:
        In an ice storm and cold cloudy snap that sweeps the country, NO
        lithium batteries will save the grid. I'm weary of this tunnel vision
        of the absurd. The only 'storage' that works is to pump water uphill
        with 'surplus' energy, and there is not and never will be a surplus.
        And these evaporartion tanks are on a scale that ecologists have to
        remember countless horror stories (eg., Glenn Canyon Dam).  And of
        course there's always "mfft!" (another scheme with no numbers behind it
        so it's credible because I'm talking about it).
        
        The last time there was anything rational on the table was Perry under
        the Trump administration's 30-day rule proposal ( [1] ). It gave a hard
        industry incentive to any energy supplier who can have 30 days' fuel on
        site.  This means nuclear and coal. This was no gimmick, it was the
        first time anyone faced reality about National Security as related to
        Energy for the grid and survival.  And now AI datacenter yadda yadda,
        we're also talking about the luxury of keeping schools heated in
        Winter.  Adverse weather even for a week is grid down game over for
        wind and solar. Proven natural gas are ~300 years, joy!  As soon as
        they get around to sending pregnant whales across the ocean (losing
        ~20% of the gas-energy in cooling) it may even last 50 years! Before we
        have to go to endless war again.
        
  HTML  [1]: https://www.nucnet.org/news/nuclear-is-vital-to-us-national-se...
       
        kibitzor wrote 1 day ago:
        >So top of the list for us, of course, designing this thing is safety.
        
        Funny issue I learned after talking to a founder at a similar company:
        although the battery packs were certified safe for cars (passing crash
        tests, wild heat differences from AK to AZ, people sitting on top of
        the battery packs in the car)
        ... the founder had issues re-certifying the batteries for safe use in
        a static location for grid storage.
        
        The certification process treated his company like the batteries were
        made from scratch even though they used the same BMS/coolant lines/etc.
        already proven and tested.
        
        It's clear you still need strong safety regulations and practices in
        the rare case there's an event, but the founder noted the grid storage
        industry regulations were adding redundant safety testing and slowing
        down adoption. The founder also added it's difficult to compete on cost
        even with effectively free used EV batteries in this startup space of
        grid storage against the low cost of Chinese made grid-specific
        batteries due to the added testing + custom hardware + space
        constraints and other items. (Caveat: I didn't fact check any of their
        statements)
       
        Lucian6 wrote 1 day ago:
        Having worked extensively with battery systems, I think the grid
        storage potential of second-life EV batteries is more complex than it
        appears. We found that typical EV batteries retain 70-80% capacity
        after 8-10 years of vehicle use, but the real challenge is
        standardization and integration. Different manufacturers use vastly
        different battery management systems (BMS) and cell configurations - a
        Tesla pack is fundamentally different from a Nissan Leaf pack.
        
        The economics are interesting though. New grid storage batteries cost
        around $200-300/kWh, while second-life EV batteries can be acquired for
        $50-100/kWh. However, you need to factor in significant integration
        costs (~$50-75/kWh) to build compatible BMS systems and thermal
        management. We also found cycle life degrades about 20% faster in
        repurposed packs compared to new ones, likely due to accumulated stress
        patterns from automotive use.
        
        Has anyone here successfully integrated mixed second-life batteries at
        scale? I'm particularly curious about how you handled thermal
        management across different pack designs while maintaining safe
        operating parameters.
       
          jwr wrote 10 hours 44 min ago:
          > the real challenge is standardization and integration. Different
          manufacturers use vastly different battery management systems (BMS)
          and cell configurations - a Tesla pack is fundamentally different
          from a Nissan Leaf pack.
          
          Isn't that exactly what the article is about? Have you actually read
          the article?
       
          Xemplolo wrote 15 hours 9 min ago:
          How can this be a real issue?
          
          We don't have a lot of car makers and we do not have a huge amount of
          EV models.
          
          Either you are doing this on small scale, than you can select one or
          two specific EV models and use these batterie packs or you do it in
          big scale, than you can also easily adapt the most x batterie packs
          and only use these across your system.
          
          If you go down to the cell level, its more effort true but then you
          probably only handel cell types of a handfull of manufacturer again.
       
            DanielHB wrote 12 hours 43 min ago:
            You can't really mix different types of cells together in the same
            pack. Even cells with the same manufacturer and chemistry can be
            problematic to mix if they are at different wear levels (or even
            from different batches from the same factory).
            
            This is only practical if you reuse the whole pack, or at least the
            modules. And for that to work well you also need a lot of complex
            software to keep the packs working well with each other (like
            balancing power levels between the packs).
            
            BMS software is no joke, it is already hard and complex enough when
            using brand new battery packs and cells of the same chemistry and
            manufacturer and wear level. Any kind of mixing massively increases
            the complexity and safety concerns.
       
              Xemplolo wrote 10 hours 45 min ago:
              So they already come with a BMS.
              
              Create a MetaBMS. The BMS of the cell pack doesn't care if a car
              requests energy between 0 and max and a BMS doesn't care either
              if it gets 0-100 kWh.
              
              My car can easily charge from a household plug up to fast
              charger. My car consumes very random amounts of energy while i
              drive.
       
          overfeed wrote 21 hours 42 min ago:
          > Having worked extensively with battery systems, I think the grid
          storage potential of second-life EV batteries is more complex than it
          appears.
          
          Complex, by t very much doable. Toyota implemented such a system with
          enough packs to power a Mazda factory [1] > However, you need to
          factor in significant integration costs (~$50-75/kWh) to build
          compatible BMS systems and thermal management.
          
          Shouldn't this be a once-off cost per battery-pack version? Or was
          this your armortized cost for your deployment capacity. If you've
          written the BMS for a 2019 Model 3 Panasonic battey pack once, won't
          you reuse it for all the subsequent battery packs of the same
          model/SKU?
          
          1.
          
  HTML    [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44998010
       
            adwn wrote 19 hours 12 min ago:
            > Shouldn't this be a once-off cost per battery-pack version?
            
            A BMS isn't just software. It requires a µC, voltage and
            temperature sensors for cell monitoring, and power electronics for
            cell balancing. However, those are all comparatively cheap,
            especially at scale, and the quoted cost of 50–75 US$/kWh looks
            ridiculously overpriced to me.
       
              overfeed wrote 13 min ago:
              I expect EV batteries to have all those components preinstalled
              already, and naively thought the grid-integration involves
              reverse engineering the battery's protocol, and perhaps
              bypassing/replacing a µC or 3.
       
          adwn wrote 21 hours 43 min ago:
          > New grid storage batteries cost around $200-300/kWh
          
          That doesn't sound right. You can already get high-quality, prismatic
          LFP cells for ~50 US$/kWh [1] from European distributors at
          low-volumes, so bulk from China should be even cheaper. And there's
          no way that balancing and BMS cost an additional 150-250 US$/kWh at
          scale, not even a tenth of that.
          
  HTML    [1]: https://www.nkon.nl/novat/eve-lf230-prismatic-230ah-230a-lif...
       
            mcbishop wrote 13 hours 15 min ago:
            Right, $200-300/kWh is more the range for ~16kWh residential
            stationary energy storage systems.
       
          chrisra wrote 1 day ago:
          > the real challenge is standardization and integration
          
          In what sense? I'm a newbie, but curious because I'm working on stuff
          related to [1] .
          
  HTML    [1]: https://mesastandards.org/mesa-der-std/
       
        tedk-42 wrote 1 day ago:
        > but what if they could drain every last drop of energy from those
        batteries before recycling them?
        
        Again batteries are an energy store and not an energy source. The fact
        the author cannot distinguish that makes the their opinion less
        credible.
       
          Xemplolo wrote 14 hours 59 min ago:
          You are just not able to comprehend basic writing styles.
          
          The author is a journalist and not the expert he is interviewing
          thats the first thing. So why would you even evaluate the journalists
          'expertise' if you get the answers from the experts.
          
          And secondly what he probalby meant was that what if this company can
          'push out' all active lifecycle before they recycle them.
          
          This is called a metapher.
       
            adwn wrote 13 hours 25 min ago:
            > And secondly what he probalby meant was […]
            
            If they can't precisely convey the intended meaning in written
            words, they shouldn't be a journalist.
       
              Xemplolo wrote 10 hours 47 min ago:
              Journalists write for an audiance which normally gets it.
              
              You just might not be one of them.
              
              And no no one needs to write everything so that everyone always
              gets it.
              
              I for example do not write blog articles for kids. I also don't
              write very technical blog articles for people outside of tech.
       
                adwn wrote 9 hours 4 min ago:
                > Journalists write for an audiance which normally gets it.
                
                That's a bullshit justification. "It's factually wrong, but
                that's okay, the true audience knows what the author means
                anyway." Then why write it at all? It makes no sense. Stop
                making up excuses for clueless journalists.
       
          hinkley wrote 1 day ago:
          All I can think is embodied energy? That’s weird.
       
        almosthere wrote 1 day ago:
        We don't need ev batteries for this. We just need cheap enough LifePo4
        so we're not burning more shit down. Prismatics from China are a start,
        Salt batteries showing some promise next.
       
        dreamcompiler wrote 1 day ago:
        This is great! Now I have a place to take my old puffy Li-Ion
        batteries.
        
  HTML  [1]: https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/recycle-with-us/
       
        torginus wrote 1 day ago:
        Personally speaking, having just bought an Ioniq 5 and installing solar
        at home what I see as the near future improvement is adding V2L
        functionality, which I can hook up to the generator input of my solar
        inverter, essentially adding another 60kWh buffer to my grid storage.
        
        Considering how expensive residential batteries are and how quickly EVs
        depreciate, I think soon it'll be cheaper to get a used EV as a cheap
        source of cells that accidentally happens to be able to drive itself
        around.
        
        Imo V2G, and V2H is unnecessary and add too much complication, I think
        for the future, solar inverters already have the necessary hardware and
        certifications to be able to take power and safely connect to the grid
        - something that requires different hardware and standards compliance
        in basically every country (yes even within the EU).
       
          sehansen wrote 11 hours 16 min ago:
          EVs are probably not going to depreciate as much in the future. The
          depreciation mostly happened because new electric cars have become
          cheaper.
          
          As an example, let's say a 2 year old car is only worth 80% of an
          identical brand new car. The old car was bought for $50k at new,
          leading to a expected depreciated value of $40k. But since
          manufacturing has become more efficient a brand new car of the same
          model can be had for the same $40k. Nobody would be willing to buy
          the 2 year old car at the same price. You'd probably have to charge
          only $32k [0]. But then it looks to you as if it has depreciated 36%.
          
          The question is how much new electric cars will fall in price in the
          future. And if they continue to fall, at some point the dollar value
          of the depreciation will be too small to care about.[1]
          
          0: $32k = 0.8 * $40k
          
          1: E.g. if a new car is $10k, $3600 in depreciation over two years is
          annoying, but not a big deal.
       
          user_7832 wrote 22 hours 9 min ago:
          > Imo V2G, and V2H is unnecessary and add too much complication
          
          I believe that's more a function of auto makers (and charger cos) not
          trying to do much about it (and grid cos not caring), than a
          technical issue. The benefits (especially if V2G) are quite
          significant.
          
          I doubt any car owner will say no to earning revenue from something
          that costs them almost nothing. The problem is more of "how do we get
          there at scale". (Disclaimer, I studied this topic in my thesis.)
       
          archi42 wrote 1 day ago:
          Residential batteries are not that expensive anymore, at least not
          all of them.
          That's a misconception I also held until a few years ago ;-)
          
          My first 14.3 kWh pack cost about 2800$ DDP from China, delivered
          03/2023. For that one I did calculate how long it took for
          amortization, which I projected at about 5 years.
          
          The second, identical pack was delivered 08/2024 and cost 2000$ DDP.
          Since we got an EV that's drawing about 14kWh per day, I didn't
          bother doing the math and just ordered it.
          
          These are 280Ah 16S 51.6V packs, based on the EVE LF280K. In an
          enclosure, with a BMS (Seplos, 200A) and a dedicated balancer. They
          are good for 6000 cycles at 140A or less [each]. Mind these were both
          part of small bulk orders - I think each time we ordered 6 to 8 of
          these, which reduced shipping costs.
       
            Hilift wrote 9 hours 32 min ago:
            I would take that further and say that residential solar without
            batteries has been proven to be a bad solution. Solar with
            batteries allows utilities and consumers to schedule when power can
            be sent to the grid. California utilities consider solar without
            batteries a PITA, and incentive structures have changed to reflect
            that shift in policy. [1]
            
  HTML      [1]: https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/distributed-energy-re...
  HTML      [2]: https://enphase.com/blog/homeowners/understanding-nem-30-a...
       
            adwn wrote 22 hours 3 min ago:
            Today you can already get 51.2 V, 16 kWh batteries complete with
            balancer and BMS from a European supplier for 1200 € (1400 US$):
            
  HTML      [1]: https://www.nkon.nl/novat/nkon-ess-eco-s-51-2v-16-1kwh-thu...
       
              SirFredman wrote 16 hours 37 min ago:
              And the nice thing is, prices will only get lower. They also have
              a 32.15kWh system for €3500,- which is insane.
       
                adwn wrote 15 hours 47 min ago:
                Unfortunately, almost all three-phase [1] on-grid inverters
                that are on the market, especially hybrid inverters, only
                support batteries with much higher voltages, like 150 V or even
                more.
                
                [1] Three-phase wiring in homes seems to be very rare in the
                US, but is extremely common in Europe.
       
              torginus wrote 17 hours 47 min ago:
              That looks quite a bit cheaper than the pricing I'm used to
              seeing, like less than half - not saying they're bad, but
              probably there's a DIY and risk factor involved compared to
              buying a more established brand like BYD or Huawei.
              
              I'm just pointing out this is way lower than typical pricing
       
                adwn wrote 16 hours 50 min ago:
                Maybe, but I think the premium charged by the main
                manufacturer's is unjustifiably high. Those battery boxes are
                relatively dumb: besides the cells, they just need some voltage
                and temperature sensors for monitoring, some power electronics
                for balancing, a microprocessor, and an enclosure with
                connectors. Unlike a grid-tied inverter, this is a really
                simple system, and there's no way a 500–700% price premium
                over the cells is reasonable.
       
            torginus wrote 1 day ago:
            My new batteries were about 250EUR/kWh - my 10KWh unit cost 2500
            EUR - scaling it up to a decent used 5 year old EV price - you can
            have one for 15k with 60+ kWh batteries, so I'd say it's at a very
            similar price.
       
              satellite2 wrote 3 hours 34 min ago:
              Do you mind citing providers/product names?
       
          kieranmaine wrote 1 day ago:
          Very interesting - I did not know this was possible. A few questions:
          
          1. Does the solar inverter do away with the need for a V2G or V2H
          unit?
          
          2. What are the limitations vs a dedicated V2G/H unit?
          
          3. Is generator input on your solar inverter a common feature across
          inverters?
       
            torginus wrote 1 day ago:
            1. It does. The only issue is that the car can only output about
            2kW sustained (this is a model limitation). That's fine since I
            have batteries in the house.
            
            2. Tbh not super familiar with V2G/V2H, other than it being super
            expensive for both the wall box and the car (only high end models
            tend to support it)/
            
            3. No idea, but it's not a high end feature, I wouldn't count on
            any inverter to just have it, but if you're looking to buy one that
            does, I don't think you'll be breaking the bank.
            
            Imo the future is for solar inverters to offer a dedicated DC car
            charger port, as once again all the hardware is already in there.
       
              kieranmaine wrote 1 day ago:
              Thanks for the answers. I used to work for a EV smart charging
              company (Kaluza) that ran a V2G trial. V2G was financial success
              for the users, but I always thought the wall box was a potential
              blocker. I don't think the 2kW output is a big issue as the
              customer could still reduce there load when required, but the
              elimination of a wall box makes onboarding much easier.
              
              As long as the inverter can also provide charging this definitely
              has some potential.
       
          irons wrote 1 day ago:
          In the US, V2L limits your ability to output power from the car to
          about 1500 W. It's not going to power your house as more than a
          stopgap, even if you do have supplementary house batteries. V2H/V2G
          justify their complexity by solving that problem, along with all the
          ancillary grid benefits.
       
            Dylan16807 wrote 1 day ago:
            A typical house averages less than 1500W.  And most of the higher
            usage overlaps the sun being out.  So if you have supplemental
            house batteries to handle bursts then 1500W of V2L can go a very
            long way.
       
              eldaisfish wrote 12 hours 40 min ago:
              the average hides a lot of information. the largest peak load is
              often an electric stove, which is regularly greater than 1,500
              kW.
              
              Also, this idea that higher usage overlap with the sun being out
              is laughably wrong. Solar noon is between 11 AM and 2 PM. Very
              few people are home at that time. There is a reason that peak
              grid demand in almost every country is in the early evening.
       
                Dylan16807 wrote 6 hours 46 min ago:
                > the largest peak load is often an electric stove, which is
                regularly greater than 1,500 kW.
                
                Does that change anything about what I said?  This is
                specifically about "if you do have supplementary house
                batteries".
                
                > Also, this idea that higher usage overlap with the sun being
                out is laughably wrong.
                
                The reason we have the duck curve is that insolation and demand
                largely overlap (especially when we're talking about the worst
                case part of the summer), but then for part of the evening they
                really don't overlap.
                
                The peak use is evening, but there's a significant ramp up when
                the sun rises and the whole day is much higher than night. [1]
                (This isn't the US but finding household graphs in particular
                is annoying, and most of the US has more summer heat than
                denmark)
                
                Anyway evening is one of those bursts where you use the
                supplementary battery to handle the rest of the load.    Even
                10% of the car's capacity, 6kWh, could cover almost all use
                above 1500W.
                
  HTML          [1]: https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S03062619...
       
                  eldaisfish wrote 5 hours 48 min ago:
                  Everything you describe is true only in some places, likely
                  California. In much of the rest of the world, electricity
                  demand peaks in the evening, when the sun is low in the sky
                  and continues well into the evening, when the sun isn’t
                  out. Notice how even the Wikipedia page about the duck curve
                  lists mainly California. Even in Australia and the UK,
                  daylight hours and electricity demand mostly do not overlap.
       
              nandomrumber wrote 1 day ago:
              > And most most of the higher usage overlaps the sun being out.
              
              Aren’t most people at work / school when the sun is out?
       
                Dylan16807 wrote 23 hours 49 min ago:
                Yes but high electricity use days correlate with air
                conditioning, and most people don't turn that off in the middle
                of the day.
                
                If you're not worrying about A/C then 1.5kW goes an extra long
                way.  Outside of cooking you'll rarely exceed it.
       
            torginus wrote 1 day ago:
            Not sure if that's the case - however doing V2L requires the
            manufacturer to add an inverter to the car, and making that
            powerful probably adds extra cost most customers wouldn't pay. TI
            just looked it up and my Ioniq can only do about 2kW sustained -
            but since this charges the house battery, that's enough - idle load
            is just a couple hundred watts.
       
              nandomrumber wrote 1 day ago:
              If the car charges the house battery, what charges the car?
       
                torginus wrote 17 hours 37 min ago:
                You pointed out a significant limitation of my current setup -
                right now there are 2 plugs - one for discharging the car
                through a proprietary manufacturer's V2L adapter, and one for
                charging.
                
                I'm planning to make a 'box' that can switch between the 2
                functionalities on the same cable.
                
                The whole setup is a bit clunky as it is right, now, but I'm
                kinda more surprised that it works at all, and how well the
                fundamentals work.
                
                This whole thing was more of an experiment in 'no way you can
                do this' to actually doing it, but I think this is HUGE, and
                will transform the way people think about electric cars.
       
                irons wrote 23 hours 59 min ago:
                If you have solar panels or time-of-use electrical rates, you
                charge the car when power is cheap/free, and spend stored power
                when the grid costs are high. During a protracted outage, maybe
                you drive the car to a fast charger.
       
        iwanttocomment wrote 1 day ago:
        I've got a 13 year old EV and nobody has told me how to cash my EV in
        for reusable energy storage. (No, seriously, hit me up.)
       
          bryanlarsen wrote 1 day ago:
          Just sell it though normal channels.  If your battery is with more
          than your car then there would be people making money on the
          arbitrage.
       
            iwanttocomment wrote 1 day ago:
            I totally get that, but as the owner, perhaps I'd like to make the
            money on the battery before the arbitragers.
       
              bryanlarsen wrote 9 hours 45 min ago:
              People look for used car parts at wreckers.   EV batteries are no
              different.
       
              hshdhdhehd wrote 14 hours 54 min ago:
              Wire it up to a solar panel and use it for home energy?
       
              Xemplolo wrote 14 hours 57 min ago:
              You are getting a base price but the rest needs to be enough to
              motivate people to handle your batterie and to install it
              somewhere.
              
              You can convert your batterie yourself into a grid support
              batterie for your own house to maximize your personal gain.
              
              But you are not doing things on scale, so you need to ignore your
              personal labor time.
       
        dukeofdoom wrote 1 day ago:
        Seems like the market is going the hybrid route. It's kind of easy to
        see why, best of both worlds. Some BYD hybrids have crazy ranges like
        1500 km on a tank of gas. The more practical car is winning. They put
        in a much small battery in these for fast charge, and the daily commute
        range. And you have gas, for longer trips. Maybe smaller batteries
        would be better for grid-scale storage too. If they're lighter and
        easier to handle.
       
          eloisant wrote 17 hours 8 min ago:
          No, hybrid is just a temporary solution until the charging
          infrastructure becomes good enough. And depending where you live,
          it's already there.
          
          Hybrid is the worse of both worlds in a way. You have a combustion
          engine to maintain, that is useless when using electricity. You have
          a heavy battery useless when using your combustion engine.
          
          You don't get all the benefits of electric, and you don't get all the
          benefits of ICE.
       
            sehansen wrote 10 hours 59 min ago:
            Exactly this. Here in Denmark, 48k plug-in hybrids were sold in
            2020, falling to 4k in 2025. The same numbers for fully electric
            cars were 38k in 2020 and 144k in 2025. Once the public charging
            infrastructure was here, the change was dramatic. I bought my first
            electric car this year and I haven't had trouble finding a public
            AC charger when I needed to, which is often since I live in a
            condo.
       
          plqbfbv wrote 1 day ago:
          > best of both worlds
          
          And the worst too: [1] I don't have first-hand experience, but these
          guys have an EV repair shop for a while and do also hybrids, their
          articles always offer lots of insight.
          
          Short run down:
          
          - micro/mild hybrids are useless: batteries too small, engines too
          small to be the sole source of power, so contribution to emission
          reduction is very small, batteries tend to fail early because they're
          very small
          
          - full hybrids have bigger batteries and engines large enough to run
          pure EV, but you still rely on ICE engine for everything, so there's
          no ability to charge at home or save on gas
          
          - plug-in hybrids are full hybrids, but you can charge them
          externally; according to many studies the estimated emissions are
          much higher than declared, because people simply don't charge them at
          home and run on ICE the whole time
          
          In all these types of hybrids the batteries are smaller than pure
          EVs, so they cycle faster and degrade faster. You're carrying two
          drivetrains all the time with added weight, one of which has plenty
          of maintenance items. So they're not drop-in replacements.
          
          From what I've seen from EVClinic above, many manufacturers use
          custom pouch cells, not cylindrical modules like the more advanced
          pure EVs, so you can't repair an individual failed cell. That means
          full pack replacement. For many manufacturers you can't order
          replacement parts of the electric drivetrain, and if you do, they
          cost a huge chunk of the car.
          
          So all in all if everything's well, you're good. If something goes
          wrong, be prepared to spend the same as you would spend for a battery
          replacement of a pure EV, or even more.
          
  HTML    [1]: https://evclinic.eu/2025/09/27/if-you-drive-a-hybrid-may-god...
       
          pinkgolem wrote 1 day ago:
          i have heard that hybrid's have a maintanance problem?
          
          is not a concern, double the technologie in the same space?
       
            numpad0 wrote 1 day ago:
            It's not like reliable gas cars ever had substantial maintenance
            problem in the gas part. So removing the gas part didn't do much in
            practice.
            
            People do/did have frustrations with gas car mannerisms and mental
            approachability, like, everything was written in a mix of
            translated foreign language documents and borderline insane
            gearhead languages. That lead them to imagine that removing the gas
            part would drastically change the industry, in their favor.
            
            But, in the end, gas cars are good with regular maintenance for
            something like 100k miles over 8 years, so, I wouldn't know what
            consumer product were more reliable than a gas car in the first
            place.
       
              rgmerk wrote 1 day ago:
              Reliable gas cars still require a lot more maintenance than an EV
              does.
              
              Oil and oil filter changes.  Fuel filters. Air cleaners. Brake
              pads (that mostly goes away with hybrids too).
       
                numpad0 wrote 18 hours 2 min ago:
                And this is what I'm referring to by approachability issues.
                Even HNers can't correctly enumerate maintenance items for a
                car.
                
                If I said iPads are better than laptops because there's no need
                to regularly replace soft drive Window and repaste NPUs every
                2000 hours, everyone knows what kind of person I would be. Yet,
                that just casually happen all the time when it comes to EVs.
       
            duskwuff wrote 1 day ago:
            Not that I'm aware of. I've heard that many hybrids actually
            require less maintenance - for instance, the car can use electric
            power for hard acceleration instead of stressing the engine, so oil
            tends to last longer, and regenerative braking causes the friction
            brakes to wear out more slowly.
       
            toast0 wrote 1 day ago:
            Eh, my PHEV has a 2 year oil change interval, which is longer than
            my ICE only cars. You should probably bring in your EV every 2
            years to get things looked at too.
            
            The engine in a hybrid should live an easier life compared to an
            ICE. No extended idle, mostly running in the power band, etc. There
            are lots of different ways to setup the hybrid system, but
            typically,  rather than a small stater motor, you have a larger
            motor/generator that also starts the engine; it's less likely to
            get worn out, because it's built for continuous use.
            
            In my PHEV, it has a 'toyota synergy' style 'e-CVT' which
            eliminates gear selection and should be very low maintenance
            (although mine had to be replaced under a service bulletin due to
            bearing failure because of manufacturing error) again nicer than an
            ICE. But some hybrids have a more traditional transmission.
            
            Certainly, you can do ICE only or EV only, but there's a lot of
            room to use the ICE for things it's good for, and the EV for things
            it's good for, and blend where there's overlap.
       
              nandomrumber wrote 1 day ago:
              That two year oil change cycle is the minumum required to not
              void the warranty.
              
              It shouldn’t be taken as the optimal interval to maximise
              engine life.
              
              Of course, modern fully synthetic engine oils are longer lasting,
              and I believe the newer Toyotas, at least the hybrids anyway,
              have electric oil pumps, and use very thin engine oil to make
              sure the engine is well lubricated at startup.
       
              Marsymars wrote 1 day ago:
              Ford Escape? I have a friend that needed the transmission on his
              2023 PHEV replaced under warranty... no service bulletin, but
              mechanics caught a manufacturing error at a regular service.
              Hopeful my hybrid Maverick doesn't have similar problems.
       
                toast0 wrote 21 hours 44 min ago:
                2014? Ford C-MAX energi TSB 16-0105 [1] (although there's a
                similar TSB 22-2396 [2] with a wider range)
                
                I'd just say, if it starts making bearing noises (loudest
                around 15mph), check in and get yelly. Cause apparently they
                keep screwing them up. HF35 is designed and built by Ford for
                Ford, so they really should have everything they need to do it
                right. sigh
                
                I saw a picture somewhere where they had an extra hole carved
                through the casing from this, worked fine until it breached and
                the fluid came out, then it died pretty quick. [1]
                
  HTML          [1]: https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/tsbs/2016/SB-10092366-544...
  HTML          [2]: https://www.tsbsearch.com/Ford/22-2396
       
            dukeofdoom wrote 1 day ago:
            It's possible it might actually be more reliable long term, once
            the technology matures. For example, in cold weather the gas engine
            might heat the battery for better battery performance, maybe even
            extend its life if it prevents it from being drawn down too much.
            The gas engine, would also likely last longer since its not used
            for daily commutes.
            
            "In many PHEV systems, there are different modes:
            
            Electric mode (EV mode): The vehicle runs purely on the electric
            motor(s) and battery until the battery depletes to some extent.
            
            Hybrid/Parallel mode: Both the petrol engine and electric motor(s)
            work together to drive the wheels, especially under high load,
            higher speeds or when battery is low. 
            Ithy
            
            Series mode (in some designs): The petrol engine acts only as a
            generator to charge the battery or power the electric motor(s), and
            the wheels are driven by the electric motor(s).
            
            For the BYD Leopard 5 (and many BYD PHEVs) the petrol engine can
            drive the wheels (i.e., it is not purely a generator). It is part
            of the drive system, especially when high power or long range is
            needed.
            
            At the same time, it likely can assist with charging the battery or
            maintaining battery state of charge (SOC) when needed (for example,
            to keep the battery at some reserve level or in “save” mode).
            User-reports show that the petrol engine will kick in to support
            the electric system, charge the battery, or assist the drive under
            certain conditions" -
       
            dukeofdoom wrote 1 day ago:
            Not sure about that, since I did never owned one either. But I
            watched a review BYD car yesterday. And it's supper nice.
            
  HTML      [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6bqgR3NRHE&t=1s
       
        1970-01-01 wrote 1 day ago:
        Betteridge's law of headlines finally fails? TL;DR: Yes, but you can
        also make it 'not work' if you choose to politicize the tech solution
        to the energy problem.
       
        KaiserPro wrote 1 day ago:
        > Can "second life" EV batteries work as grid-scale energy storage?
        
        Yes
        
        is it profitable? probably not.
        
        Looking at the price for brid battery storage, and its dropping
        precipitously. The cost isn't as much in the batteries them selves, it
        packaging, placing and then controlling them.
        
        For example if you want to have a 200Mwhr 100Mw storage site, you'll
        need to place it, join it to the grid, all doable. Then you need the
        switch gear to make it work as you want it to.
        
        For day ahead, 30 minute trading, thats fairly simple.
        
        For grid stabilisation, thats a bit harder, you need to be able to
        lead/match/lag the grid frequency by n degrees instantaneously. which
        is trivial at a few kw, much harder at 100Mw
       
          Xemplolo wrote 15 hours 3 min ago:
          'probably not'?
          
          Based on what numbers?
          
          Germany alone had to pay 2 billion in dispatch measures to energy
          providers. And in the last 6 month we had news about a HUGE request
          of companies wanting to build grid stabilisation and grid market
          battery systems in a range of over 100GwH.
          
          Also we do have industries which would be able to save a ton of money
          if the invest in smaller but similiar systems today already due to
          energy prices.
          
          And in germany for example, we do have a lot of wind energy in the
          north but not enough live transit capacity to get it into the south.
          In this scenario the market would again stabilize the grid by
          charging at night from cheap / free wind energy production in north
          and transfering it to the south and then using it at day.
       
          nop_slide wrote 1 day ago:
          Sounds like what [1] is doing
          
  HTML    [1]: https://www.basepowercompany.com/
       
        dylan604 wrote 1 day ago:
        Without being a battery chemistry expert, why do these battery packs
        become not useful for an EV yet could still be useful for energy
        storage. They keep saying that 80% of life becomes unusable for EV, but
        that's still a lot of life. Is it that grid energy is more of a
        constant drain while the EV is lots of hard pulls (for lack of better
        wording)? In an EV, the battery cannot provide the higher volts being
        requested within rating, but a grid is never demanding peak
        performance?
       
          jillesvangurp wrote 18 hours 3 min ago:
          The load in an EV is very different than in storage. Basically the
          charge and discharge rate is what deteriorates the battery. EVs need
          a lot of power delivered quickly in bursts when you accelerate
          (tens/hundreds of kw). And then fast charging when the driver is in a
          hurry also puts a lot of stress on the battery. With storage
          solutions, the power requirements are much less intense. These high
          bursts of energy would actually blow the fuse in your house. They are
          simply not needed. And there is no need for fast charging them
          either. Instead they get charged over many hours when there is cheap
          power available.
          
          Companies like Redwood are good at assessing the state of the battery
          and then managing it such that it is run optimally. Usually, it's
          just a few cells that are no longer working; the rest of the pack is
          still be fine. So that just means the max output of the pack drops a
          bit. But that's still more than fine for storage if all you need is a
          few kw of output.
          
          Running the battery optimally also extends the useful life of the
          remaining cells.
       
          benzible wrote 1 day ago:
          It's not just about capacity (80% is still a lot), it's that degraded
          batteries lose their ability to deliver high current under load—so
          acceleration suffers and voltage sags under hard pulls. For grid
          storage, you're doing slow, steady charge/discharge cycles over
          hours, so the same battery that can't handle aggressive driving
          anymore works perfectly fine. Plus, grid storage has virtually
          unlimited space and no range anxiety, so if you need 25% more packs
          to hit your capacity target, you just stack them in a warehouse where
          real estate is cheap.
       
            hinkley wrote 1 day ago:
            > For grid storage, you're doing slow, steady charge/discharge
            cycles over hours.
            
            Only if the feed in is a bottleneck. For peak shaving you could go
            faster.
       
            ramses0 wrote 1 day ago:
            Looking forward to the grid-scale warehouse fire of battery packs
            popping off...
       
              dylan604 wrote 1 day ago:
              They claim to have taken the Moss Landing fire into account with
              how they are placing their batteries. We won't know if they've
              really solved the problem or not until their first battery pack
              experiences a runaway thermal event.
       
            miahi wrote 1 day ago:
            Also, batteries will degrade faster over time when they start to
            degrade, because they need more frequent charging. Their internal
            resistance increase and that promotes heat buildup during fast
            charging/discharging, another thing that promotes degradation. Slow
            charge/discharge cycles also help with heat management.
       
          HWR_14 wrote 1 day ago:
          For an EV you want a high energy density, because it impacts range.
          For grid storage, density doesn't matter as much.
       
          MarioMan wrote 1 day ago:
          Space and weight are serious constraints in the car space, but not
          such a big deal on the side of a house. That’s how they retain
          their usefulness.
          
          80% could indeed be plenty of usable life for your EV use cases, but
          it strongly depends on usage patterns. More degradation means more
          trips to the charger on a road trip. It means trips that you’d
          regularly make just charging at home at the end of day now require
          you to plug in at the destination too. It means more range anxiety as
          a whole.
       
        bryanlarsen wrote 1 day ago:
        This is less useful than most people expected.     Redwood has been
        struggling because the expected battery turnover is not occurring.   EV
        batteries are lasting a long time, so they stay in the car are and not
        being recycled or reused in any quantity yet.
        
        If EV batteries last 20+ years in EV's, it'll be > 2040 before there
        are significant numbers of EV batteries available to recycle or reuse.
        
  HTML  [1]: https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/
       
          dzhiurgis wrote 15 hours 40 min ago:
          Top it how cheap batteries have gotten it makes little sense to
          remanufacture unless you are extremely dedicated DIYer, live
          somewhere with very cheap labour or it's done in massive scale to
          achieve economies of scale.
          
          In NZ you can get 60KWh used Tesla battery for 6-10k NZD, then spend
          another 1-2k for additional gear + labour to hack it (overall
          $116-200/KWh) or 15KWh for 3.5k ($233/KWh) with warranty and safety
          guarantees.
       
          jillesvangurp wrote 17 hours 18 min ago:
          That's part of it. Yet there is a growing gwh of EV batteries that
          gets retired on a yearly basis. Which is what Redwood has been
          tapping into. There is also a certain amount of cells that don't make
          it past the quality gates in the factory that get recycled via them.
          
          Also people forget how quickly EVs have grown. The Tesla Model 3 came
          out in 2017; that's eight years ago. That was pretty much the first
          mass market EV that got produced by the hundreds of thousands per
          year. It had eight years of battery warranty. Most EVs you see on the
          road were produced after 2017 and typically come with similar
          warranty. The simple reality is that the vast majority of EV
          batteries ever produced is still under it's factory warranty and
          nowhere near its warranty life time. The amount of gwh of battery
          that becomes available for companies like Redwood is fairly
          predictable as it is tied to the production volume 8-15 years ago.
          
          Redwood is basically tapping into the growing number of cars that get
          scrapped early because of accidents or other failures. That's a
          smallish percentage of overall vehicles produced but at the rate EVs
          started getting produced around eight years ago, it's starting to add
          up to a few gwh of battery per year. It's not a lot yet but it's not
          that unpredictable. And it's not nothing. If you manufacturer new
          batteries at 80$/kwh, producing 1 gwh new would cost about 80M$. So
          giving batteries a second life has quite a bit of economic value. The
          issue for Redwood is probably more that competition for these
          batteries is quite fierce. There is a lot of valuable stuff you can
          do with these things and lots of companies eagerly looking to pick up
          second hand EVs for their batteries.
       
          jwr wrote 18 hours 34 min ago:
          > the expected battery turnover is not occurring
          
          I find this somewhat amusing, because the black PR of the fossil-fuel
          industry would have us believe that EV batteries basically have a
          2-year lifespan, cost lots of CO2 to produce, instantly become toxic
          waste after those 2 years, are non-recyclable, and overall as a
          result EVs emit more CO2 than gasoline-burning cars. We are being
          told that EVs have a larger CO2 footprint than gasoline-burners.
          
          Then Redwood shows up with a perfect way to utilize all those
          discarded batteries without even opening them up, and… that toxic
          industrial junk isn't even there?
       
          Theodores wrote 1 day ago:
          The typical EV industry trade show has a small handful of cars and a
          vast amount of tangential businesses including many finance options,
          a vast amount of home charger gizmos, fast charging gizmos,
          electricity suppliers and the companies promising grid-scale storage,
          either from actively used cars or recycled EV batteries. There is a
          vast constellation of this stuff, with specialist insurance companies
          that nobody really asked for outnumbering the car brands or even
          e-bike brands present.
          
          In time there will be consolidation. This constellation of EV startup
          bottom-feeders will be decimated along with the 'excuses' to not make
          money.
          
          I don't think the problem is that EV batteries are lasting longer, it
          is just that the EV market from before the Model 3 came along is
          miniscule. Hence not many second hand batteries to recycle.
          
          As for EV batteries and their availability, when was the last time
          you saw an OG Tesla Model S with the fake grill? Those cars used to
          be everywhere, but where are they now? The German EVs that came out
          to compete, for example, Taycan and eTron, those things are not going
          to last the distance since the repairs cost a fortune and the parts
          supply is limited.
          
          All considered, there will come a time before 2040+ when there are
          large quantities of these electric car batteries to upcycle, by which
          time the EV business will be consolidated with only a few players.
          
          If there was money in recycling cars then every auto manufacturer
          would be in on it.
       
          JumpCrisscross wrote 1 day ago:
          > Redwood has been struggling because the expected battery turnover
          is not occurring
          
          Redwood pitched recycling. But its principal business was primary
          production. (Processed black mass is analogous to lithium ore.)
          They're struggling because demand for American-made batteries remains
          low.
       
          JohnLocke4 wrote 1 day ago:
          In 2040 fusion energy advancements will have gotten far enough to be
          the next technological step and make this redundant anyway
       
            throwaway270925 wrote 19 hours 37 min ago:
            With solar, fusion energy is already here! There is just a bit of
            wireless transmission involved after generation.
       
            megaman821 wrote 1 day ago:
            The steam generator that the fusion generator connects to might be
            more expensive than solar at this point. That would be even if
            fusion cost nothing and had infinite amounts of fuel, there would
            be no customers for its energy on a sunny afternoon.
       
            bee_rider wrote 1 day ago:
            This is like a “fusion is only 20 years away” (or 15 in this
            case) joke, right?
       
              hinkley wrote 1 day ago:
              It used to be 30. So fifty more years?
       
                marcosdumay wrote 1 day ago:
                Yep, it was 30 years at the 60s. If it keeps halving every 85
                years, we'll get it approximately never :)
       
                  hinkley wrote 1 day ago:
                  Zeno's Fusion Paradox
       
            epistasis wrote 1 day ago:
            There's currently no technological path for fusion to be cheaper
            than fission. It would require a technological breakthrough that we
            have not yet imagined.
            
            And already, solar plus storage is cheaper than new nuclear. And
            solar and storage are getting cheaper at a tremendous rate.
            
            It's hard to imagine a scenario where fusion could ever catch up to
            solar and storage technology. It may be useful in places with poor
            solar resources, like fission is now, but that's a very very long
            time from now.
       
              BurningFrog wrote 1 day ago:
              The regulatory hurdles are probably bigger than the difficult
              enough technological ones you mention.
       
              apendleton wrote 1 day ago:
              > It would require a technological breakthrough that we have not
              yet imagined.
              
              Maybe, but not necessarily. The necessary breakthrough might have
              been high-temperature superconducting magnets, in which case not
              only has it been imagined, but it has already occurred, and we're
              just waiting for the engineering atop that breakthrough to
              progress enough to demonstrate a working prototype (the magnets
              have been demonstrated but a complete reactor using them hasn't
              yet).
              
              Or it might be that the attempts at building such a prototype
              don't pan out, and some other breakthrough is indeed needed.
              It'll probably be a couple of years until we know for sure, but
              at this point I don't think there's enough data to say one way or
              the other.
              
              > And already, solar plus storage is cheaper than new nuclear.
              
              It depends how much storage you mean. If you're only worried
              about sub-24h load-shifting (like, enough to handle a day/night
              cycle on a sunny day), this is certainly true. If you care about
              having enough to cover for extended bad weather, or worse yet,
              for seasonal load-shifting (banking power in the summer to cover
              the winter), the economics of solar plus storage remain abysmal:
              the additional batteries you need cost just as much as the ones
              you needed for daily coverage, but get cycled way less and so are
              much harder to pay for. If the plan is to use solar and storage
              for _all generation_, though, that's the number that matters.
              Comparing LCoE of solar plus daily storage with the LCoE of
              fixed-firm or on-demand generation is apples-and-oranges.
              
              I think solar plus storage absolutely has the potential to get
              there, but that too will likely require fundamental breakthroughs
              (probably in the form of much cheaper storage: perhaps something
              like Form Energy's iron-air batteries).
       
                cesarb wrote 14 hours 2 min ago:
                > If the plan is to use solar and storage for _all generation_,
                though, that's the number that matters.
                
                And that's the problem with these Internet discussions: that's
                almost never the plan, but commenters trying to make solar look
                bad assume it is (to your credit, you made it explicit; many
                commenters treat it as an unspoken assumption).
                
                In real life, solar and batteries is almost always combined
                with other forms of generation (and other forms of storage like
                pumped hydro), in large part due to being added to an already
                existing large-scale grid. The numbers that matter are for a
                combination of existing generation (thermal power plants,
                large-scale hydro, etc) with solar plus storage. Adding
                batteries for just a few hours of solar power is enough to
                mitigate the most negative consequences of adding solar to the
                mix (non-peaking thermal power plants do not like being cycled
                too fast, but solar has a fast reduction of generation when the
                sun goes down; batteries can smooth that curve by releasing
                power they stored during the mid-day peak).
       
                bruce511 wrote 21 hours 2 min ago:
                One can discuss base load and season shifting all day long. But
                ultimately fusion will fail for two simple reasons; time and
                money.
                
                If we started building a fusion commercial scale plant today
                (ie started by planning, permits, environmental assessments,
                public consultation, inevitable lawsuits, never mind actual
                construction and provisioning) it'd come online in what? 10
                years? 15 years? 20 years?
                
                Want to deploy more batteries? It can be online in months. And
                needs no more construction than a warehouse.
                
                Financially fusion requires hundreds of billions, committed
                now, with revenue (not returns) projected at 10 years away
                (which will slide.) Whereas solar + storage (lots and lots of
                storage) requires anything from thousands to billions depending
                on how much you want to spend. We can start tomorrow, it'll be
                online in less than 2 years (probably a lot less) and since
                running costs are basically 0, immediate revenue means
                immediate returns.
                
                Of course I'm not even allowing for fusion being "10 years"
                from "ready". It's been 10 years from ready for 50 years. By
                the time it is ready, much less the time before it comes
                online, it'll be redundant. And no one will be putting up the
                cash to build one.
       
                adrianN wrote 22 hours 42 min ago:
                In the end we're still making steam and running a turbine. Just
                the steam turbine part of the power plant has a hard time
                competing with solar in sunny locations.
       
                pfdietz wrote 1 day ago:
                High temperature superconducting magnets are not a panacea for
                the problems with DT fusion.  Those issues follow from limits
                on power/area at the first wall, and the needed thickness of
                the first wall; these ensure DT reactors will have low
                volumetric power density, regardless of the confinement scheme
                used.
                
                With HTSC magnets, a tokamak much smaller than ITER could be
                built, but ITER is so horrifically bad that one can be much
                better than it and still be impractical.
       
                  pfdietz wrote 9 hours 12 min ago:
                  > needed thickness of the first wall
                  
                  I meant, needed thickness of the tritium breeding blanket.
       
                  apendleton wrote 1 day ago:
                  Oh for sure, I'm not claiming that CFS (or Tokamak Energy or
                  Type One or whoever else) will for sure succeed, or if they
                  do, that they've already solved all the problems that will
                  need solving to do so. My only assertion/prediction is that I
                  think if they end up succeeding, when future historians look
                  back and write the history of this energy revolution or
                  whatnot, HTSC magnets will turn out to have been the key
                  breakthrough that made it possible.
       
                    nandomrumber wrote 1 day ago:
                    Fusion reactors are self destroying, just ask any star.
                    
                    More seriously: what to do about the neutron flux
                    destroying the first wall inside the reactor vessel?
       
                  epistasis wrote 1 day ago:
                  And these are not new issues, they've been known for more
                  than 40 years, but never addressed. From the 1983 Led
                  
                  > But even though radiation damage rates and heat transfer
                  requirements are much more severe in a fusion reactor, the
                  power density is only one-tenth as large. This is a strong
                  indication that fusion would be substantially more expensive
                  than fission because, to put it simply, greater effort would
                  be required to produce less power.
                  
  HTML            [1]: https://orcutt.net/weblog/wp-content/uploads/2015/08...
       
                    apendleton wrote 1 day ago:
                    In terms of cost of materials to build a reactor, sure,
                    that seems right. But most of the cost of fission is
                    dealing with its regulatory burden, and fusion seems on
                    track to largely avoid the worst of that. It seems
                    conceivable that it ends up being cheaper for entirely
                    political/bureaucratic reasons.
       
                      epistasis wrote 1 day ago:
                      Regulatory costs and waste disposal are not significance
                      cost centers for nuclear, at least as far as I can tell
                      from any cost breakdowns.
                      
                      One doesn't need super high quality welding and concrete
                      pours becuase of regulations as much as the basic desire
                      to have a properly engineered solution that lasts long
                      enough to avoid costly repairs.
                      
                      Take for example this recent analysis on how to make the
                      AP1000 competitive: [1] There are no regulatory changes
                      proposed because nobody has thought of a way that
                      regulations are the cost drivers. Yet there's still a
                      path to competitive energy costs by focusing hard on
                      construction costs.
                      
                      Similarly, reactors under completely different regimes
                      such as the EPR are still facing exactly the same
                      construction cost overruns as in the rest of the
                      developed world.
                      
                      If regulations are a cost driver, let's hear how to
                      change them in a way that drives down build cost, and by
                      how much. Let's say we get rid of ALARA and jack up
                      acceptable radiation levels to the earliest ones
                      established. What would that do the cost? I have a
                      feeling not much at all, but would like to see a serious
                      proposal.
                      
  HTML                [1]: https://gain.inl.gov/content/uploads/4/2024/11/D...
       
                        pfdietz wrote 11 hours 20 min ago:
                        > let's hear how to change
                        
                        One approach would be to reduce the size of the
                        containment building by greatly reducing the volume of
                        steam it must hold.  This would be done by attaching
                        Filtered Containment Venting Systems (FCVS) that strip
                        most of the radioactive elements from the vented steam
                        in case of a large accident.
                        
                        The containment building is a significant cost driver,
                        costing about as much as the nuclear island inside of
                        it.
                        
                        If such a system had been attached to the reactors that
                        melted down at Fukushima exposure could have been
                        reduced by maybe two orders of magnitude.  And if the
                        worst case exposure is that low, perhaps much more
                        frequent meltdowns could be tolerated, allowing
                        relaxation of paperwork requirements elsewhere.
       
                          epistasis wrote 9 hours 14 min ago:
                          Interesting! Would that require any regulation
                          change?
       
                            pfdietz wrote 9 hours 3 min ago:
                            I believe the NRC currently requires that the
                            containment remain leak-free for 24 hours after a
                            design basis accident.
                            
                            Now, I have not checked if shorter lived
                            radioisotopes would ruin the idea I'm suggesting. 
                            It's possible.
       
                      pfdietz wrote 1 day ago:
                      Relaxed regulatory burden doesn't seem to be making
                      fission competitive in China; renewables are greatly
                      overwhelming it now, particularly solar.
                      
                      We might ask why regulations are so putatively damaging
                      to nuclear, when they aren't to civil aviation.  One
                      possibility is that aircraft are simply easier to
                      retrofit when design flaws are found.  If there's a
                      problem with welding in a nuclear plant (for example)
                      it's extremely difficult to repair.  Witness the fiasco
                      of Flamanville 3 in France, the EPR plant that went many
                      times over budget.
                      
                      What would this imply for fusion?  Nothing good.  A
                      fusion reactor is very complex, and any design flaw in
                      the hot part will be extremely difficult to fix, as no
                      hands on access will be allowed after the thing has
                      started operation, due to induced radioactivity.  This
                      includes design or manufacturing flaws that cause mere
                      operations problems, like leaks in cooling channels, not
                      just flaws that might present public safety risks (if any
                      could exist.)  The operator will view a smaller problem
                      that renders their plant unusable nearly as bad as a
                      larger problem that also threatens the public.
                      
                      I was struck by a recent analysis of deterioration of the
                      tritium breeding blanket that just went ahead and assumed
                      there were no initial cracks in the welded structure more
                      than a certain very small size.  Guaranteeing quality of
                      all the welds in a very large complex fusion reactor, an
                      order of magnitude or more larger than a fission reactor
                      of the same power output, sounds like a recipe for
                      extreme cost.
       
                        cyberax wrote 22 hours 21 min ago:
                        Regulation is not a problem, and even the construction
                        costs are not terrible. We can take the Rooppur NPP as
                        a base, it produces reliable energy at 6-7 cents per
                        kWh. The reason for cost overruns is simply because
                        NPPs are one-off products, the Western countries don't
                        have a pipeline for NPP production.
                        
                        For comparison, utility-scale solar with 16 hours of
                        storage is 21 cents: [1] Just raw solar without storage
                        can be as low as 2-3 cents per kWh.
                        
  HTML                  [1]: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/higher-renewa...
       
                          apendleton wrote 21 hours 23 min ago:
                          > The reason for cost overruns is simply because NPPs
                          are one-off products
                          
                          But there's no fundamental reason they _have_ to be
                          one-off products. They just historically have been
                          for at least partly regulatorily motivated reasons:
                          because each reactor's approval process starts afresh
                          (or rather, did until quite-recent NRC reforms),
                          there's little advantage in reuse, and because many
                          compliance costs are both high and fixed, there's an
                          incentive to build fewer huge reactors rather than
                          more small ones, which makes factory construction
                          difficult to achieve and economies of scale hard to
                          realize.
       
                            pfdietz wrote 14 hours 14 min ago:
                            Civil engineering involves adapting any design to
                            the local geology.  This has to be custom for each
                            site.
       
                          pfdietz wrote 21 hours 57 min ago:
                          If I understand correctly, the cost/year of an
                          engineer in India is maybe 1/3rd that in the US, and
                          for general labor the disparity is even larger.  So
                          it shouldn't be too surprising NPP construction in
                          India is cheaper than in the US.  India doesn't have
                          a large NPP pipeline, they just have cheaper labor.
       
                            cyberax wrote 19 hours 25 min ago:
                            (Bangladesh, not India)
                            
                            Yes, but solar power panels are also mostly
                            produced in China, where engineers still get less
                            than 1/3 of the US/Europe salary.
                            
                            European power plants will be more expensive, but
                            even with the LCOE of 12 (twice that of Rooppur)
                            it's still going to be way cheaper than storage for
                            areas that get cold weather (Midwest, Germany, most
                            of China).
                            
                            Anything south of California? Yeah, just get
                            solar+wind, no need to bother with nuclear.
       
                              pfdietz wrote 14 hours 27 min ago:
                              As we pointed out, PV is still trouncing nuclear
                              in China.  So if the difference is smaller there,
                              it's still in favor of solar.
                              
                              Storage is another matter here, but even there
                              costs for batteries have simply collapsed. 
                              Understand that massive storage is needed even in
                              a nuclear-powered economy.  If all the 283
                              million cars and trucks in the US were replaced
                              with 70 kWh BEVs, the storage would be enough to
                              power the US grid (at its current average
                              consumption) for 40 hours.  That's a lot of
                              batteries.  So the demand is there to continue to
                              drive them down their experience curves.  In
                              China, they're already around $50/kWh for
                              installed grid storage systems (not just cell
                              price).
                              
                              The final storage problem, the only reed that
                              nuclear can be clinging to at this point, is long
                              term/seasonal storage.    That's needed either to
                              smooth wind variability (~ week scale) or to move
                              solar from summer to winter (~6 months).  There
                              are at least two different ways this could be
                              solved:  hydrogen and heat.  As mentioned
                              elsewhere in these threads, the latter is very
                              promising, with capex as little as $1/kWh of
                              storage capacity and a RTE of about 40%.  Should
                              that work out anywhere close to that nuclear
                              would be in a hopeless position anywhere in the
                              world, even at very high latitudes.
       
                                cyberax wrote 7 hours 14 min ago:
                                > As we pointed out, PV is still trouncing
                                nuclear in China. So if the difference is
                                smaller there, it's still in favor of solar.
                                
                                Sure. Solar is easy to scale when you don't
                                care about reliability, nobody is arguing with
                                that. But it's another issue entirely when you
                                need a stable grid.
                                
                                I'm not aware of any countries (even tropical
                                ones) that managed anything close to 100%
                                renewables with solar. E.g. Hawaii has to pay
                                for extremely expensive diesel generation even
                                though they have plenty of solar potential.
       
                                  pfdietz wrote 4 hours 9 min ago:
                                  And nuclear is scalable if you force other
                                  sources off the grid in favor of nuclear (and
                                  force customers to not use renewables "behind
                                  the meter").
                                  
                                  In a fair grid, solar and wind get built out,
                                  and the residual demand has no baseload
                                  component.  Unless nuclear is given the right
                                  to force other sources off the grid it
                                  becomes inappropriate.
                                  
                                  In Texas now there is no chance of new
                                  nuclear construction.  ERCOT is a competitive
                                  market and new nuclear simply doesn't make
                                  sense.
       
                                    cyberax wrote 3 hours 7 min ago:
                                    > And nuclear is scalable if you force
                                    other sources off the grid in favor of
                                    nuclear (and force customers to not use
                                    renewables "behind the meter").
                                    
                                    Not really? Nuclear is not any different
                                    from coal. And plenty of countries have
                                    coal generation in the mix. France also is
                                    majority-nuclear.
                                    
                                    And so far, nuclear is the second known
                                    technology (after hydro) that actually
                                    demonstrated close to 100% fossil-free
                                    grid.
                                    
                                    So far, there is nothing similar for solar.
                                    Even though it's supposed to be
                                    oh-so-cheap.
                                    
                                    > In Texas now there is no chance of new
                                    nuclear construction. ERCOT is a
                                    competitive market and new nuclear simply
                                    doesn't make sense.
                                    
                                    Well, yeah. Because they can just allow the
                                    grid to die during the next Arctic air
                                    blast.
       
              Dylan16807 wrote 1 day ago:
              Fission is expensive for regulation reasons more than
              technological reasons, so if fusion doesn't face the same
              barriers then it could be cheaper than fission.
              
              But I agree that it doesn't look like fusion is going to be cheap
              any time soon.
       
                bryanlarsen wrote 1 day ago:
                Fission is also expensive for several mundane reasons, like the
                fact that massive steam turbines are expensive, and because any
                large construction project in the West is expensive.    Neither
                fusion nor regulatory reform are going to solve those.
       
              noosphr wrote 1 day ago:
              The low energy future that was envisioned is not happening.
              
              The AI arms race, which has become an actual arms race in the war
              in Ukraine, needs endless energy all times a day.
              
              China is already winning the AI cold war because it adds more
              capacity to its grid a year than Germany has in a century.
              
              If we keep going with agrarian methods of energy production don't
              be surprised that we suffer the same fate as the agrarian
              societies of the 19th century. Any country that doesn't have the
              capability to train and build drones on mass won't be a country
              for long.
       
                epistasis wrote 1 day ago:
                You have that exactly backwards: solar + storage is what will
                give us energy abundance at less money than we could ever
                imagine from nuclear fission or fusion.
                
                China is winning the AI Cold war because it's adding solar,
                storage, and wind at orders of magnitude more than nuclear.
                
                I'm not sure who's doing your supposed "envisioning" but there
                is no vision for cheap abundant energy from fusion. Solar and
                storage deliver it today, fusion only delivers it in sci fi
                books.
                
                Nuclear is 20th century technology that does not fit with a
                highly automated future. With high levels of automation,
                construction is super expensive. You want to spend your
                expensive construction labor on building factories, not
                individual power generation sites.
                
                Building factories for solar and storage lets them scale to a
                degree that nuclear could never scale. Nuclear has basically no
                way of catching up.
       
                  noosphr wrote 1 day ago:
                  China has been building out nuclear capacity at 5% a year for
                  25 years.
                  
                  Solar and wind capacity had shot through the roof in the last
                  five years because they can't sell hardware to the west any
                  more.
                  
                  The other big item is hydro power, which China has a ton of
                  untapped potential for. Unfortunately for the West every good
                  river has already been damed so we can't follow them there.
       
                    bryanlarsen wrote 9 hours 47 min ago:
                    > Unfortunately for the West every good river has already
                    been damed so we can't follow them there.
                    
                    You don't need a river for hydro power storage.   All you
                    need are two reservoirs with a height difference between
                    them.     Typically one of the two reservoirs is preexisting
                    and the second is constructed.     ANU identified ~1 million
                    potential sites.
                    
  HTML              [1]: https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/global/
       
                    ben_w wrote 11 hours 24 min ago:
                    > Solar and wind capacity had shot through the roof in the
                    last five years because they can't sell hardware to the
                    west any more.
                    
                    They can't sell as much as they would like, specifically to
                    the USA, due to tariffs/trade war, but there's a much
                    bigger world out there than just the US, and the overall
                    exports are up over the last five years: [1] There's a
                    Chinese-made Balkonkraftwerk sitting a few meters away from
                    me on my patio, it cost €350, of which €50 was delivery
                    and another €50 was the mounting posts, the remaining
                    €250 got me 800 W of both panel and inverter.
                    
                    > Unfortunately for the West every good river has already
                    been damed so we can't follow them there.
                    
                    For generation, yes. For storage, no.
                    
  HTML              [1]: https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/chart-c...
       
                    epistasis wrote 1 day ago:
                    > Solar and wind capacity had shot through the roof in the
                    last five years because they can't sell hardware to the
                    west any more.
                    
                    "can't sell hardware??" hah! I've never heard that weird
                    made-up justification, where did you pick it up from?
                    
                    China installed 277GW of solar in 2024, capacity factor
                    corrected that's 55.4 GW of solar power. That's equivalent
                    to the entire amount of nuclear that China has ever built.
                    One year versus all time. And then in the first half of
                    2025, China installed another 212GW of solar. In six
                    months.
                    
                    Nuclear is a footnote compared to the planned deployment of
                    solar and wind and storage in China.
                    
                    Anybody who's serious about energy is deploying massive
                    amounts of solar, storage, and some wind. Some people that
                    are slow to adapt are still building gas or coal, but these
                    will be stranded assets far before their end of life.
                    Nuclear fusion and fission are meme technologies, unable to
                    compete with the scale and scope that batteries and solar
                    deliver every day. This mismatch grows by the month.
       
                      cyberax wrote 22 hours 30 min ago:
                      > China installed 277GW of solar in 2024, capacity factor
                      corrected that's 55.4 GW of solar power.
                      
                      The problem is not just the mean capacity factor, but the
                      capacity factor in _winter_. It's terrible for China,
                      less than 15%. And more importantly, you can have _weeks_
                      with essentially zero solar power when you need it most.
       
                        ben_w wrote 11 hours 1 min ago:
                        > It's terrible for China, less than 15%.
                        
                        55.4 GW per 277 GW is an (annual) capacity factor of
                        20%, so the response here is "yes, and?"
                        
                        > And more importantly, you can have _weeks_ with
                        essentially zero solar power when you need it most.
                        
                        Half the country is a mid-latitude desert. What makes
                        you think the whole country has "weeks" with zero
                        solar? And it does have to be the whole country in this
                        case, because one thing a centrally planned economy can
                        do well is joining up the infrastructure, which in this
                        case means "actually make the power grid the USA and
                        the EU keep wringing their hands over".
       
                          cyberax wrote 7 hours 12 min ago:
                          > Half the country is a mid-latitude desert. What
                          makes you think the whole country has "weeks" with
                          zero solar?
                          
                          The "whole country" is irrelevant. You can't transmit
                          arbitrary amounts of power across the large
                          geographic areas, most of energy has to be generated
                          in a reasonably close proximity.
                          
                          > And it does have to be the whole country in this
                          case, because one thing a centrally planned economy
                          can do well is joining up the infrastructure
                          
                          Transmission lines are expensive, regardless of your
                          ideology.
       
                            ben_w wrote 7 hours 1 min ago:
                            > The "whole country" is irrelevant. You can't
                            transmit arbitrary amounts of power across the
                            large geographic areas, most of energy has to be
                            generated in a reasonably close proximity.
                            
                            Only technically correct because you said
                            "arbitrary": it's well within China's manufacturing
                            capabilities to make a grid that can transmit 3 TW
                            over 40,000 km, with a conductor cross section so
                            thick it only has 1 Ω resistance.
                            
                            As in: all the world's current electricity demand,
                            the long way around the planet.
                            
                            I have, in fact, done the maths on this.
                            
                            > Transmission lines are expensive, regardless of
                            your ideology.
                            
                            "Expensive" but not "prohibitively expensive".
                            
                            All infra is "expensive". Nations have a lot of
                            money.
       
                              cyberax wrote 2 hours 38 min ago:
                              > Only technically correct because you said
                              "arbitrary": it's well within China's
                              manufacturing capabilities to make a grid that
                              can transmit 3 TW over 40,000 km, with a
                              conductor cross section so thick it only has 1 Ω
                              resistance.
                              
                              And it'll turn out to cost more than building a
                              nuke in each backyard.
                              
                              > I have, in fact, done the maths on this.
                              
                              No.
       
                        noosphr wrote 22 hours 3 min ago:
                        This is not an issue in China as they overprovision
                        demand by 50 percent. Their grid can run off baseload
                        generation alone in their 2060 plan.
                        
                        Trying to explain that a grid build by electrical
                        engineers, rather than financial engineers, has
                        resilience build in to people whose whole idea about
                        electricity generation is greenwashed bullshit from
                        McKinsey and Co is at best a waste of time and at worst
                        an excellent way to raise one's blood pressure.
       
                  pfdietz wrote 1 day ago:
                  > sci fi books
                  
                  I blame these for the unquestioned belief that fusion is
                  desirable.  It's a trope because it enables stories to be
                  told, and because readers became used to seeing, not because
                  science fiction has a good track record on such things.
                  
                  The fact that the volumetric power density of ARC is 40x
                  worse than a PWR (and ITER, 400x worse!) should tell one that
                  DT fusion at least is unlikely to be cheap.
                  
                  With continued progress down the experience curve, PV will
                  reach the point where resistive heat is cheaper than burning
                  natural gas at the Henry Hub price (which doesn't include the
                  cost of getting gas through pipelines and distribution to
                  customers.)  And remember cheap natural gas was what
                  destroyed the last nuclear renaissance in the US.
       
                    formerly_proven wrote 1 day ago:
                    It's hard to imagine a form of energy production less
                    desirable than fusion.
                    
                    Okay, sure, burning lignite and using the exhaust as air
                    heating in the children's hospital. You got me.
       
          p0w3n3d wrote 1 day ago:
          Tesla batteries fail after 8 years at least from models up to 2014
       
            Sohcahtoa82 wrote 1 day ago:
            [citation needed]
       
            trhway wrote 1 day ago:
            Prius Plugin 2015 (last year of that model) - full charge/discharge
            at least 3-4 times a week, currently still a bit more than 80% of
            capacity (granted the battery seems  somewhat overbuilt, yet it is
            normally does 10-15C which is much tougher mode than in a pure EV
            where 2-3C is usually enough and only high-end Teslas and the likes
            would do 5-6C). There has been large continuous improvement in
            lithium batteries over the last couple decades.
       
              nandomrumber wrote 1 day ago:
              What does any of this mean?
              
              What is c in this context?
       
                dtgriscom wrote 1 day ago:
                From my model airplane experience, I believe it's "capacity per
                hour". So, a 1Ah battery discharged at 1c would mean 1 amp;
                discharged at 10c would be 10 amps. The higher the C, the
                harder the batteries are being used.
       
                trhway wrote 1 day ago:
                1 C current fully discharges battery in 1 hour. Thus 4KWh
                battery running 60 KW engine means 15C current, and it would
                discharge the battery in 4 minutes (in a very simplified linear
                model).
       
            stetrain wrote 1 day ago:
            The number of Teslas sold up to 2014 is less than 1% of all Teslas
            sold.
            
            Tesla has an 8-year battery and drivetrain warranty but they don't
            necessarily fail after that date.
       
              p0w3n3d wrote 18 hours 55 min ago:
              there is an ubiquitous failure of Panasonic-created cells for
              Tesla. I made a research on forums, because I wanted one, and
              investigated why there is such a price drop. Cars getting close
              to the age of 8 years immediately drop on price to even 10k usd.
              It's because if you get your battery replaced on warranty - you
              won. Otherwise it often deteriorates suddenly.
       
                stetrain wrote 6 hours 41 min ago:
                It’s understandable that people would avoid out of warrant
                EVs, we don’t have that many years of data on old EVs yet.
                
                Anecdotal forum posts are not a great source of statistical
                data.
       
          p1necone wrote 1 day ago:
          > "most people"
          
          "most people" even now are just parroting dumb FUD they read on
          facebook.
          You really shouldn't give any weight to the opinions of laypeople on
          topics that are as heavily propagandized and politically charged as
          renewable energy.
       
          whatever1 wrote 1 day ago:
          We are only 5-6 years into the car ev market. Tesla model 3 started
          being sold in 2018 in meaningful numbers
       
            cogman10 wrote 1 day ago:
            Still have mine.  Battery capacity is around 80% of the new
            capacity.  I'm not planning on switching anytime soon as it's got
            plenty of range still.    I'll probably swap the pack out when it
            hits 70% in the next 2 or 3 years.
       
              beAbU wrote 19 hours 22 min ago:
              Your 2018 tesla has a battery SOH of 80%?
              
              How many km's on the clock, and how often do you fast charge if
              you dont mind me asking?
              
              To me that SOH stat sounds really bad!
       
                cogman10 wrote 14 hours 1 min ago:
                270,000 km.  And fast charging about 3 times a year.
                
                If I were to guess, the main factor harming the battery is my
                garage gets pretty hot in the summer (37 or 38C)
       
                  rconti wrote 10 hours 22 min ago:
                  I'm not even sure how to calculate our deg! Same, 2018 3 long
                  range. I think they advertised it as 305mi but some time
                  later increased the capacity of the car to 315mi; I max
                  charged it to 314 once but never quite saw that 315. I think
                  we're around 273 as max now so 89.5% of the original quoted
                  life, 87% of the "updated" life. Car has 115k miles, ~
                  185,000km.
       
                    cogman10 wrote 10 hours 1 min ago:
                    There was about 2 years of rapid drop off that I
                    experienced and I don't exactly know why.
       
                  beAbU wrote 12 hours 52 min ago:
                  That is quite high mileage. I'm certain someone smarter and
                  less lazy than me can calculate the amount of expected cycles
                  that the battery would have seen.
                  
                  Do you leave it fully charged for long periods of time, or do
                  you discharge it down to empty or nearly empty quite
                  regularly?
       
                    cogman10 wrote 12 hours 44 min ago:
                    I charge it to 70% and leave it there most of the time.
                    
                    I don't often fully discharge, that's bad for the lipos.  I
                    usually keep a 40-70 range SOC.
       
                dzhiurgis wrote 15 hours 36 min ago:
                I agree, reads like carefully crafted FUD.
       
                  cogman10 wrote 13 hours 58 min ago:
                  What possible motivation would I have to spread FUD about my
                  own car?
                  
                  To me this is perfectly reasonable degradation after 7 years
                  of ownership with the number of miles I have.
                  
                  There is also just an element of luck that's involved. 
                  Batteries degrade at different rates and there's not really
                  any accounting for it.
       
              bryanlarsen wrote 1 day ago:
              It probably will take a lot longer than that to hit 70%. 
              Degradation on Tesla batteries slows down considerably after it
              hits 85%.
              
              there are exceptions, though.
       
          ACCount37 wrote 1 day ago:
          A lot of the early EV battery life projections were based on Nissan
          Leaf Gen 1. Which had a horrendous battery pack that combined poor
          choice of chemistry, aggressive usage and a complete lack of active
          cooling.
          
          When EVs with good battery pack engineering started hitting the
          streets, they outperformed those early projections by a lot. And by
          now, it's getting clear that battery pack isn't as much of a concern
          - with some of the better designs, like in early Teslas, losing about
          5-15% of their capacity over a decade of use.
       
            numpad0 wrote 1 day ago:
            It didn't just had horrendous service life, it was designed for
            some set years of life to be regularly replaced and repurposed for
            battery storages. Nissan had business schemes outlined for that
            with Leaf packs.
            
            I think Tesla deserves credit for rethinking hat model into
            chassis-life battery packs and surpluses rather than recovered
            cells for grid storages.
            
            Especially considering that, resales of Gen1 Leafs milked for EVs
            and renewables incentives is like destination fees atrocious. You
            can find fairly zero-milage ones with a functional 100-yard battery
            pack on sale for couple hundred dollars in some places. Even
            crashed wrecks of a Tesla cost magnitudes more.
       
              sandworm101 wrote 10 hours 2 min ago:
              A car chassis is essentially immortal: 30, 40 or even 100+ years.
               Modern steal is franky amazing compared to cars of the past.
              Tesla batteries are nowhere near chassis life numbers.
              
              I was stuck in traffic behind an 87 caddy yesterday.  It was not
              a collector car. That chassis is still on the road, seemed to be
              taking kids to school.
       
                hnuser123456 wrote 8 hours 16 min ago:
                I see you don't live in Michigan... my 22 year old car has
                growing rust holes in front of the rear wheels.
       
            guelo wrote 1 day ago:
            That's amazing good news for the environment, thank you I hadn't
            heard this.
       
            jbm wrote 1 day ago:
            I am a bit more concerned about batteries now as opposed to an year
            ago.
            
            We had this article from Elektrek [1] about battery issues in South
            Korea.    When I asked my local electric maintenance shop [2, sorry
            for the FB link], they said they have started seeing the same issue
            in Model 3s and Ys in Canada as well.  (They also said that it is
            too early to tell how common it would become)
            
            This may bode well for recycling since the issues is an unbalance,
            not the whole pack failing. [1]
            
  HTML      [1]: https://electrek.co/2025/10/14/tesla-is-at-risk-of-lossing...
  HTML      [2]: https://www.facebook.com/groups/albertaEV/posts/2485588442...
       
              jgilias wrote 15 hours 29 min ago:
              Idk, not really worried about that. There are shops that are able
              to swap out a faulty module, and the cost is not too horrible:
              
  HTML        [1]: https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1e3on...
       
              MetaWhirledPeas wrote 23 hours 23 min ago:
              I would be more concerned if the source were anyone but
              Electrek~. Their vendetta against Tesla has forfeited all their
              credibility on Tesla news.
              
              "many of these vehicles are now out of warranty, as they
              sometimes exceed the maximum mileage"
              
              They have good numbers for the number of affected vehicles, but
              the best they can do for out-of-warranty stats is "many" and
              "sometimes". Convenient.
              
              ~To be fair this applies to a lot of popular tech sites I used to
              respect. Dunking on Tesla is its own industry these days, it
              seems.
       
                CursedSilicon wrote 19 hours 6 min ago:
                >Dunking on Tesla is its own industry these days, it seems.
                
                Are you suggesting Tesla is criticized without good reason?
       
                  jack_pp wrote 16 hours 54 min ago:
                  Idk enough but I assume there are good reasons, however when
                  a website is biased and finds even bad reasons to hate that's
                  still a problem right?
       
                    fragmede wrote 4 hours 42 min ago:
                    Bad reasons to hate something are bad press for Tesla, and
                    how many people are going to read past a headline that
                    confirms their bias? This isn't limited to Tesla, mind you,
                    and is a broader statement on clickbait, and the state of
                    the Internet and media and society today. Of course,
                    anybody on Tesla's side knows to take Electrek and the rest
                    of the Inernet’s coverage with a grain of salt, but with
                    rabid fanboys on both sides, it's hard to know how large a
                    grain of salt, and when.
       
                    cowsandmilk wrote 14 hours 21 min ago:
                    What are the bad reasons that bias electrek’s coverage?
       
                      bryanlarsen wrote 9 hours 55 min ago:
                      Electrek's Fred has a ton of Tesla referral credits.  
                      Tesla owes him 2 Roadster's and has reneged.   After
                      Tesla screwed him, Fred's coverage turned from glowing to
                      negative.
       
                      1234letshaveatw wrote 12 hours 32 min ago:
                      extremist "journalists" and/or undisclosed sponsorship? 
                      Contrast their Tesla coverage with their almost giddy
                      stories on anything China related.
       
                jbm wrote 19 hours 8 min ago:
                I can respect that.  For what it is worth, I validated with a
                well-trusted local shop that works on EVs (and works with
                Tesla) that said the issue is starting to pop up.  Moreover,
                it's the government of Korea that is making this claim as well.
                
                (I also find it difficult to separate noise from signal about
                Tesla.    However, I don't consider them innocent victims;
                besides the elephant in the room, they literally eliminated
                their PR department)
       
              seanmcdirmid wrote 1 day ago:
              Tesla made powerwalls a product for a reason. They were supposed
              to come from outdated Tesla cars, but that never materialized. If
              it is materializing now, they already know what they are going to
              do.
       
            floxy wrote 1 day ago:
            Don't forget that the original Leaf pack was only 24 kWh.  So if
            you assume a ~1000 full-equivalent-charge-cycles lifespan, then the
            large Gen2 62 kWh pack will live 2.5 times longer than an original
            24 kWh pack.   If you average 3.5 miles/kWh, the 24 kWh battery
            will be expected to last somewhere around 84,000 miles.  While the
            62 kWh pack will last for 217,000 miles.
            
  HTML      [1]: https://coolienergy.com/lfp-vs-nmc-batteries-the-science-b...
       
              bryanlarsen wrote 7 hours 34 min ago:
              This is a big reason why hybrid's are generally a bad idea.  
              Their batteries wear out a lot quicker than the batteries on
              EV's.
       
                floxy wrote 7 hours 11 min ago:
                The batteries in a hybrid are much smaller (~1.3 kWh for a
                Prius), and so cost much less to replace.
       
                  bryanlarsen wrote 6 hours 44 min ago:
                  The vast majority of EV owners will spend $0 to replace their
                  batteries since the batteries last longer than the rest of
                  the car does.
                  
                  Edit: part of that is that a Prius with 250,000 miles needing
                  its second battery replacement is still a valuable car with a
                  reasonable expectation of a lot more miles.    OTOH a Tesla
                  at 250,000 miles needing its first battery replacement...
                  
                  Similarly Chrysler hybrid owners spend less money on battery
                  replacements than Toyota hybrid owners.   Not a compliment,
                  it means they're scrapping their cars earlier.
       
              adrianN wrote 22 hours 53 min ago:
              Why would you only assume 1000 cycles? Is the chemistry that bad?
              The LFP battery on my balcony is rated for 5000 cycles iirc.
       
                Moto7451 wrote 22 hours 15 min ago:
                LFP does have a lot more cycles in them by the nature of the
                chemistry. However EV grade NMC aren’t terrible either.
                
                Depth of discharge and charge rate affect LFP specifically in
                such a way that if you keep them a good margin above cutoff
                voltage, relatively cool (60C and under, and do 1C and lower
                charging you can get 10,000 cycles per their data sheets. The
                same sheets will also list lower cycle counts for harder use
                that lines up with the standards used for earlier cells.
                Basically I think we’ll find a lot of gently to moderately
                used hardware will last a long time.
                
                Whatever a believable use case looks like will probably end up
                on those data sheets and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see
                15,000 and 20,000 cycles advertised for cells intended in low
                charge and discharge use cases (probably not cars but maybe
                home energy storage).
                
                My Taycan has an ongoing battery issue relating to LG Pouch
                cells but its construction rather than composition that is the
                culprit. The same compositions from LG in prismatic and
                cylindrical models, the only models they sell now, so far
                haven’t been a mess for car makers.
       
                  jopsen wrote 12 hours 8 min ago:
                  We did 12.000 km in our id.4 last year.
                  
                  I suspect it'll die due to rust. But yes, might take a while.
                  Even in Denmark where we salt the roads in a winter.
       
            cogman10 wrote 1 day ago:
            I'll defend the leaf a little.
            
            LiPo batteries were quiet expensive when it was initially released.
             NiMH was really the only option in town.
            
            And with a lower energy density battery that's also heavier, adding
            a cooling system would have also added a bunch of weight to the
            already heavy car with a barely usable range of 100 miles.
            
            Gen 2, however, had no excuses.  They had every opportunity to add
            active cooling and they still decided to go with just air cooling.
       
              cptskippy wrote 23 hours 14 min ago:
              > Gen 2, however, had no excuses. They had every opportunity to
              add active cooling and they still decided to go with just air
              cooling.
              
              The Lizard pack in the later Nissan Leafs has held up
              surprisingly well.  I have a 2015 that still gets 75 miles of
              range.    I'm sure they thought it wasn't necessary and they
              probably had the actuarial numbers to justify it.
       
              xattt wrote 1 day ago:
              NiMH was used in Priuses for a very long time, and these seem to
              have lasted for ages.
       
              ACCount37 wrote 1 day ago:
              Leaf Gen 1 didn't have NiMH. It had a lithium-based battery
              chemistry, but some bastard offshoot of it. One that really
              didn't fare well under high current draw, or deep discharge, or
              high temperatures, or being looked at wrong.
       
                trainsarebetter wrote 3 hours 34 min ago:
                1st gen was LMO
       
              MrRadar wrote 1 day ago:
              Every generation of the production Nissan Leaf has used lithium
              batteries. AFAIK no modern (~post-2000) mass-produced (>10k units
              sold) EV has ever used NiMH or lead-acid batteries.
              
              Edit: Checking Wikipedia to verify my information, I found out
              that Nissan actually sold a lithium-battery EV in 1997 to comply
              with the same 90s CARB zero-emissions vehicle mandate that gave
              us the GM EV-1:
              
  HTML        [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_R%27nessa#Nissan_Al...
       
                formerly_proven wrote 1 day ago:
                EVs no, but I think some Toyota hybrids (which are of course
                not even PHEVs) still use NiMH. Toyota tends to be very
                tight-lipped about their batteries and their sizes (or rather,
                lack thereof).
       
                  whaleofatw2022 wrote 9 hours 19 min ago:
                  Early Hybrids used NiMH because Chevron was holding on to a
                  lot of the patents around using Lithium Ion for the purpose
                  IIRC.
       
                  numpad0 wrote 1 day ago:
                  Tends to be tight lipped??? It is in the catalog[1]! It is
                  more that American consumers aren't tech obsessed than Toyota
                  being reluctant to share.
                  
                  Even just looking at online media reports[2][3] clearly
                  sourced from some exact same press event, it is obvious that
                  US English equivalents are much lighter in content than
                  Japanese versions. They're putting the information out, no
                  one's reading it. It's just been the types of information
                  that didn't drive clicks. Language barrier would have effects
                  on it too, that Toyota is a Japanese company and US is an
                  export market, but it's fundamentally the same phenomenon as
                  citizen facing government reports that never gets read and
                  often imagined as being "hidden and withheld from public
                  eyes", just a communication issue.
                  
                  1: [1] 2: [2] 3:
                  
  HTML            [1]: https://www.toyota.com/priuspluginhybrid/features/mp...
  HTML            [2]: https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyota-aqua-prius-c-...
  HTML            [3]: https://car.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/news/1339263.ht...
       
                    formerly_proven wrote 18 hours 26 min ago:
                    Despite your ??? and ! the only article you posted that's
                    about hybrids (and not PHEVs) mentions nothing about
                    battery capacity.
       
                      close04 wrote 12 hours 6 min ago:
                      > Battery capacity (kWh) 13.6
                      
                      It's under Weights/Capacities but you have to expand the
                      section yourself, no way to link directly to it.
       
                        formerly_proven wrote 11 hours 42 min ago:
                        The page you are referring to is literally titled
                        "Plug-In Hybrid Specifications"
                        
                        /out
       
                          close04 wrote 10 hours 32 min ago:
                          Sorry, I just saw you objected to the lack of
                          information for battery capacity, not the type of
                          hybrid or chemistry.
       
                    taneq wrote 19 hours 52 min ago:
                    Interestingly they don't tell you anything (unless I missed
                    it) about the battery for the non-plugin hybrids, eg. the
                    Corolla Cross: [1] I was looking up this year's Corolla a
                    while ago and likewise there was minimal info that I could
                    see about the battery capacity, which I think I figured out
                    was about 3kWh.
                    
  HTML              [1]: https://www.toyota.com/corollacross/features/mpg_o...
       
                    avhception wrote 1 day ago:
                    It's nice to get a reminder about this problem once in a
                    while, I've fallen into the trap myself at times.
       
              wcfields wrote 1 day ago:
              On the used market you'll find absolutely cooked (literally)
              Leafs whose first life was in Arizona and barely have enough
              range to back out of the driveway.
       
                jbm wrote 19 hours 0 min ago:
                Is there any value in fixing the battery on these?  IE: Do the
                other components last long enough to be worth the cost?
                
                It seems like procuring the battery is not as expensive as the
                Tesla battery (I see someone who did it themselves for $6k on
                Youtube with the battery from a wrecked leaf).    In comparison,
                the cost I see for my Model 3 is about ~$18k CAD.
                
                Getting a car up and running for $8k might be worth it if it is
                otherwise dependable, but I've only heard unfortunate stories
                about the first gen Leaf.
       
                  bluGill wrote 12 hours 43 min ago:
                  Is it worth spending money on a car that old? You are putting
                  more than the car is worth into fixing it and you won't get
                  that back if you sell. You also have no idea when/if
                  something else will go. thew worst case is the day after you
                  fix it someone hits you and the repairs will be $30,000 -
                  what it cost new and there are still a lot of worn out parts:
                  insurance will give you $4000 and tell you to eat the loss.
       
                    trainsarebetter wrote 3 hours 33 min ago:
                    30000? What? Leaf packs are swap able between years… here
                    in bc 2k and you have a newer pack in
       
                      bluGill wrote 2 hours 46 min ago:
                      30k is the real cost to repair some accident damage to a
                      leaf - think bent frame. this could happen anytime.
                      Nobody would pay that price to the whole car ends up in a
                      junk yard.
       
                londons_explore wrote 1 day ago:
                I have a gen 1 leaf with a remaining range of about 500 yards
                if you drive gently...
                
                I use it in my driveway to make it look to thieves like someone
                is home (round me, houses with no car get broken into).
       
                  Marsymars wrote 1 day ago:
                  Sounds like an old Roomba I used to have that could clean for
                  about 2 minutes before it ran out of juice.
       
          dylan604 wrote 1 day ago:
          From TFA:
          
          David Roberts
          
          When did automotive batteries become the majority of your input by
          volume?
          
          Colin Campbell
          
          That is a good question.
          
          David Roberts
          
          Was it recent or was that early on?
          
          Colin Campbell
          
          I would say the transition to EV batteries dominating what we
          received, it’s been in the last year or 18 months.
          
          David Roberts
          
          So the front edge of a very large wave of batteries has begun to
          arrive?
          
          Colin Campbell
          
          Yeah, the wave is out there, it’s coming. The waters have finally
          started to arrive at the beach here.
       
            jeffbee wrote 1 day ago:
            He's just talking his book. Their deployment this year was 1/4000th
            share of the BESS market.
       
              dylan604 wrote 1 day ago:
              Battery Energy Storage System for anyone else like me that has no
              knowledge of this world and their acronyms.
       
            bryanlarsen wrote 1 day ago:
            Reading between the lines of the corporate speak will validate my
            point.     Redwood was founded in 2017.
       
              dylan604 wrote 1 day ago:
              "It’s the largest microgrid in North America and it’s the
              largest second-energy storage site in the world. So that’s like
              you said at the top, it’s a 12-megawatt AC, 63-megawatt-hour
              grid supporting about 2 or 3 megawatts of data centers and run by
              solar. So all the energy comes from another 12 megawatts of
              solar."
              
              Sure, so while not supplying power to a city, they are proving
              this is viable. Just because it's not "turn off the coal plants
              now" moment doesn't mean this isn't a very good direction.
              Everyone has to start and grow. I don't understand the whole shit
              on something because it's not an immediate solve. If these guys
              waited until 2040 to start the business, well, that'd just be
              dumb. It essentially sounds like capacity will just continue to
              increase year over year, maybe around 2040 there will be a huge
              spike. Doesn't seem like anything is wrong here.
       
          pfdietz wrote 1 day ago:
          So, basically the same reason recycling of PV modules hasn't taken
          off.
       
            Rebelgecko wrote 1 day ago:
            I've been intrigued by used solar panels for sale, seems like you
            can get an amazing price for ones that are only lightly degraded.
            Is there a downside, or do you just mean that it isn't popular
            currently?
       
              bityard wrote 8 hours 44 min ago:
              Used panels are cheap because of where we are in the improvement
              curve. Let's say you're a large business with a factory rooftop
              full of 100W panels that was installed installed 10 years ago.
              Today, you can upgrade that rooftop to 300W panels without any
              additional footprint and often for less than the original
              deployment cost (adjusted for inflation).
              
              Those old panels have to go somewhere and still have at least 2/3
              of their life left. Probably more because we're finding out that
              well-made panels do not degrade as quickly as previously thought.
              
              The used panel market (in the US anyway) might dry up soon if the
              tariffs stay in place, as that will make a lot of customers
              reluctant to upgrade due to greatly increased costs. But I guess
              we'll see. I've been wrong before.
       
              duskwuff wrote 1 day ago:
              How much of a difference does it actually make in terms of the
              all-inclusive price of installation (e.g. panels, inverters,
              mounting hardware, and labor)?
              
              (Asking because I genuinely don't know, not because I have a
              specific answer in mind.)
       
                Rebelgecko wrote 1 day ago:
                Labor is by far the top cost. But I'm intrigued by the
                economics of a small setups paired with like a <5kwh battery.
                And for something like that where you literally just throw 4-6
                panels out, you can just brute force by buying more panels
                instead of optimizing angles. Basically a slightly beefier
                version of a European balcony setup
       
                hinkley wrote 1 day ago:
                Find an installer who will warranty work using third party let
                alone used solar panels and then we can talk.
       
              hnaccount_rng wrote 1 day ago:
              In addition to my sibling comment: The cost of the panels is a
              rather small fraction of the total cost of a typical
              installation. Most of that cost ist labor, some regulatory
              requirements and the inverter. Whether you pay a factor of 2 for
              the panels or not typically doesn't matter. In other words:
              Reusing used panels will only ever be able to safe you a
              minuscule amount.
       
                ericd wrote 1 day ago:
                Yeah, we paid more for the little bits of metal that held up
                the panels than for the panels themselves (aluminum, but
                still).
       
                  dzhiurgis wrote 15 hours 33 min ago:
                  IDK sounds like you got ripped off. I diy'd and panels were
                  cheap of course, but fittings were perhaps 3-5x cheaper.
                  Inverter is typically same as your panels (hybrid, grid-tied
                  are quite a bit cheaper).
       
                    ericd wrote 13 hours 25 min ago:
                    Maybe, but these aren’t fittings, they’re ground mounts
                    with large screws that screw into the ground to hold the
                    entire array down, including under high wind (and have to
                    come with PE stamped system-level engineering drawings
                    talking about things like rated wind load of the whole
                    array to pass building inspections).
                    
                    But yeah, at the end of the day, just bent bars of aluminum
                    with ground screws and bolts to hold the corners of the
                    panels, versus the technological marvels of the solar
                    panels they hold.
       
                    namibj wrote 13 hours 48 min ago:
                    For all of your context/reference, if you buy whole pallets
                    from a central European port warehouse, glass-glass modules
                    run around $0.11/Wp plus shipping.
                    
                    Unless you're just bolting them to the floor or to an
                    uninsulated wall, mounting will (sadly) run you a sizable
                    fraction of that cost in the best case.
       
                hinkley wrote 1 day ago:
                These days it’s a stack of microinverters. Which are not
                cheaper but do improve array efficiency outside of idea
                conditions. But that’s another up front cost.
       
                pfdietz wrote 1 day ago:
                The low cost of the modules themselves has led to the
                suggestion of cost optimized DC-coupled PV systems being used
                to directly drive resistive heaters.  The cost per unit of
                thermal energy in a cost optimized system moderate scale system
                (> residential, < utility scale) may be in the range of
                $3-5/GJ, very competitive with natural gas.  Low cost maximum
                power point trackers would be useful; inverters would not be
                needed.
                
                Low cost modules allow one to do away with things like
                optimally tilted modules and single axis tracking.  The modules
                can also be tightly packed, reducing mounting and wiring costs.
       
                  jopsen wrote 11 hours 3 min ago:
                  I've heard of farmers doing this, well I think they actually
                  had an inverter. But limits on how much they could dump into
                  the grid, meant that they had lots of surplus electricity and
                  installing resistive heating was very cheap.
                  
                  Even if they don't have surplus electricity all the time.
       
                  alvah wrote 22 hours 53 min ago:
                  Is it worth using heat pumps in this setup (in addition to
                  resistive elements)? I understand they can't reach the
                  absolute temperature of resistive heating, but from an
                  efficiency POV for the first few tens of degrees they are
                  much more efficient.
       
                    kragen wrote 9 hours 27 min ago:
                    Efficiency allows you to use less solar panels, but more
                    solar panels are cheaper than a heat pump.  I think the
                    ratio is about 5:1 at this point and widening.
       
                      kragen wrote 5 hours 32 min ago:
                      To be concrete, I'm told that recently in the US a
                      certain 34000btu/hour (10kW) output heat pump consuming
                      up to 14A at 220V at the compressor (3kW) cost US$2700
                      installed, which is 27¢ per peak watt of output.  But
                      [1] gives a price of €0.055 per peak watt (US$0.065/Wp)
                      for low-cost solar panels.  So the heat pump costs, in
                      some sense, 4.2 times as much as the solar panels.
                      
                      But the heat pump doesn't save you 10kW over resistive
                      heating when it's running full-tilt.  It saves you 10-3 =
                      7kW.  So it costs 39¢ per watt of saved energy, which is
                      6 times as much as the solar panels.
                      
                      In some simplified theoretical sense, if you decide you
                      need another 10kW of heating for your house, you could
                      spend US$2700 on this heat pump, and also buy 3000 Wp of
                      solar panels to power it, costing US$194, for a total
                      cost of US$2894.  Or you could buy 10000 Wp of solar
                      panels, costing US$645, and a resistive wire, costing
                      US$10, for a total cost of US$655.  US$655 is almost five
                      times cheaper than US$2894.  (4.4 times cheaper.)
                      
                      There are a lot of factors that this simplified cost
                      estimate overlooks; for example:
                      
                      • Maybe you need to run the heater 16 hours a day but
                      you only get sunlight 7 hours a day, either because it's
                      winter in Norway, or because there are tall pine trees
                      that shade your property most of the day, and you can't
                      put the panels up on the trees.  So maybe in some sense
                      one watt of peak heater output is worth 2.3 watts of peak
                      solar panel output.  Or maybe it's the other way around,
                      where your house only needs active heating during a few
                      hours at night, so one watt of peak heater output is only
                      worth 0.43 watts of peak solar panel output.
                      
                      • The prices are in different countries.  Solar panels
                      are more expensive in the US, even wholesale.
                      
                      • US$2700 is the retail price of the heat pump,
                      including installation and warranty, and 6.5¢/Wp is the
                      wholesale price of low-cost solar panels with no warranty
                      ("Minderleistungs-Solarmodule, B-Ware, Insolvenzware,
                      Gebrauchtmodule, PV-Module mit eingeschränkter oder ohne
                      Garantie, die in der Regel auch keine Bankability
                      besitzen.")  Even in Europe the retail price of solar
                      panels is three or four times this.
                      
                      • Driving a resistive heating element from solar panels
                      is considerably easier than driving a heat pump from
                      solar panels; adapting a heating element to run on lower
                      voltage is just a matter of connecting more wires to the
                      middle of it, while adapting a heat pump to run on lower
                      voltage may involve redesigning the whole power supply
                      board or even rewinding the motor.  Which is in a
                      hermetically sealed refrigerant circuit, by the way,
                      which you'd have to reseal.  In practice, you'd just buy
                      an inverter, but a 3000-watt inverter is expensive.
                      
                      • As you said, for sensible-heat thermal storage, the
                      heat pump craps out at about 50° or 60°, while any
                      garden-variety resistive heating element (plus a lot of
                      crappy improvised ones) will be just fine at 600° or
                      700°.    That means you need ten times as much thermal
                      mass for the same amount of storage.  Sand is dirt cheap,
                      but once you get into the tens of tonnes, even dirt isn't
                      really cheap.
                      
                      Despite such complications, I still think that pair of
                      numbers is a useful summary of the situation: the heat
                      pump costs 39¢ per watt saved, while the solar panel
                      costs 6.5¢ per watt produced.
                      
  HTML                [1]: https://www.solarserver.de/photovoltaik-preis-pv...
       
                    bluGill wrote 12 hours 26 min ago:
                    Depends - the problem with heat pumps is when you need them
                    the most they don't work. If it never gets below -10c
                    (exact temperature needs more study, could be as low as
                    -25) where you live they are fine - but that implies you
                    live in an area where you don't get many cold days and so
                    the expense isn't worth it (it also implies you live where
                    it gets hot in sumner so you want ac anyway and the
                    marginal additional cost makes it worth it again). If you
                    live in an area where it gets colder you need additonal
                    backup heat that can cover those really cold days and so
                    you may as well run that system only.
       
                      pfdietz wrote 3 hours 43 min ago:
                      I think unless you're in an area dominated by cooling
                      needs, an optimally sized heat pump system will not cover
                      100% of heating needs.    It would make sense to make it
                      smaller and use a backup resistive heater for rare very
                      cold events.
       
                        bluGill wrote 2 hours 48 min ago:
                        cooling is more important but not by much. however the
                        real problem is temperature delta: 100f-70f is 30
                        degrees, 70f-10f is 60 degrees. If you size a system
                        for cooling it can't make up.
                        
                        of course things arenot actually linear on temperature
                        but as a rough estimate it gets the point across.
       
                  maxerickson wrote 1 day ago:
                  What's the proposed system design? For example, in January, I
                  get about 9 hours of sunlight and have an average daily high
                  of 25 F. I'm gonna need to store heat somehow or another.
       
                    kragen wrote 23 hours 31 min ago:
                    I haven't seen pfdietz's proposed system design, but a
                    so-called "sand battery," consisting of a box of sand with
                    a heating element running through it, should work fine. 
                    You can PWM the heating element with a power MOSFET to keep
                    it from overheating; you can measure its temperature with
                    its own resistance, but also want additional thermocouple
                    probes for the sand and to measure the surface of the box. 
                    A fan can blow air over or through the sand to control the
                    output power within limits.
                    
                    I'll work out some rough figures.
                    
                    Let's say your house is pretty big and badly insulated, so
                    we want an average of 5000 watts of heating around the
                    clock with a time constant on the order of 10 hours, and we
                    don't want our heating element to go over 700°. 
                    (Honest-to-God degrees, not those pathetic little
                    Fahrenheit ones.)  That way we don't have to deal with the
                    ridiculous engineering issues Standard Thermal is battling.
                     There's a thermal gradient through the sand down to room
                    temperature (20°) at the surface.  Suppose the sand is in
                    the form of a flat slab with the heating element just
                    heating the center of it, which is kind of a worst case for
                    amount of sand needed but is clearly feasible.    Then, when
                    the element is running at a 100% duty cycle, the average
                    sand temperature is 360°.  Let's say we need to store
                    about 40 hours of our 5000W.  Quartz (cheap construction
                    sand) is 0.73J/g/K, so our 720MJ at ΔT averaging 340K is
                    2900kg, a bit over a cubic meter of sand.  This costs about
                    US$100 depending mostly on delivery costs.
                    
                    The time constant is mostly determined by the thickness of
                    the sand (relative to its thermal diffusivity), although
                    you can vary it with the fan.  The heating element needs to
                    be closely enough spaced that it can heat up the sand in
                    the few hours that it's powered.  In practice I am guessing
                    that this will be about 100mm, so 1.5 cubic meters of sand
                    can be in a box that's 200mm × 2.7m × 2.7m.  You can
                    probably build the box mostly out of 15m² of ceramic
                    tiles, deducting their thermal mass from the sand required.
                     In theory thin drywall should be fine instead of ceramic
                    if your fan never breaks, but a fan failure could let the
                    surface get hot enough to damage drywall.  Or portland
                    cement, although lime or calcium aluminate cement should be
                    fine.  You can use the cement to support the ceramic tiles
                    on an angle iron frame and grout between them if necessary.
                    
                    7.5m² of central plane with wires 100mm apart requires
                    roughly 27 2.7m wires, 75m, probably dozens of broken hair
                    dryers if you want to recycle nichrome, though I suspect
                    that at 700° you could just use baling wire, especially if
                    you mix in a little charcoal with the sand to maintain a
                    reducing atmosphere in the sand pore spaces.  (But then if
                    it gets wet you could get carbon monoxide until you dry it
                    out.)  We're going to be dumping the whole 720MJ thermal
                    charge in in under 9 hours, say 5 hours when the sunshine
                    is at its peak, so we're talking about maybe 40kW peak
                    power here.  This is 533 watts per meter of wire, which is
                    an extremely reasonable number for a wire heating element,
                    even a fairly fine wire in air without forced-air cooling.
                    
                    If we believe [1] the thermal conductivity of dry sand
                    ranges from 0.18 W/m/K to 0.34 W/m/K.  So if we have a
                    linear thermal gradient from our peak design temperature of
                    700° to 20° over 100mm, which is 6800K/m, we should get a
                    heat flux of 1200–2300W/m² over our 15m² of ceramic
                    tiles, so at least 18kW, which is more than we need, but
                    only about 3×, so 200mm thickness is in the ballpark even
                    without air blowing through the sand itself.  (As the core
                    temperature falls, the heat gradient also falls, and so
                    does the heat flux.  720MJ/18kW I think gives us our time
                    constant, and that works out to 11 hours, but it isn't
                    exactly an exponential decay.)    Maybe 350mm would be
                    better, with corresponding increases in heating-element
                    spacing and decreases in wire length and box surface area
                    and footprint.
                    
                    To limit heat loss when the fan is off, instead of a single
                    humongous wall, you can split the beast into 3–6 parallel
                    walls with a little airspace between them, so they're
                    radiating their heat at each other instead of you, and
                    cement some aluminum foil on the outside surfaces to reduce
                    infrared emissivity.  The amount of air the fan blows
                    between the walls can then regulate the heat output over at
                    least an order of magnitude.  (In the summer you'll
                    probably want to leave the heating element off.)
                    
                    The sand, baling wire, aluminum foil, lime cement, angle
                    irons, charcoal, thermocouples, power MOSFETs,
                    microcontroller, fans, and ceramic tiles all together might
                    work out to US$500.  But the 40kW of solar panels required
                    are about US$4000 wholesale, before you screw them to your
                    siding or whatever.  At US prices they'd apparently be
                    US$10k.
                    
                    720MJ is 200kWh in cursed units, so this is about
                    US$2.50/kWh.  Batteries are about US$80/kWh on the Shanghai
                    Metals Market.
                    
                    What do you think?
                    
  HTML              [1]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-93054-w...
       
                      formerly_proven wrote 18 hours 59 min ago:
                      Did you just reinvent electric night storage heaters?
       
                        kragen wrote 18 hours 46 min ago:
                        I would instead say that, familiar with many designs
                        from millennia of history of using thermal mass for
                        indoor climate control, I outlined a design of an
                        electric night storage heater that is especially cheap
                        and convenient.  Or an "electric day storage heater", I
                        guess, since the day is when it stores heat.
       
                      kragen wrote 20 hours 47 min ago:
                      A thing I forgot to calculate: with 75m of wire
                      dissipating 533 watts per meter, how thick should the
                      wire be?  Suppose we divide it into three 25m circuits so
                      that we still have most of our heat if a wire burns out,
                      and suppose we're using 48Vdc.    So E²/R = 13.3kW, R =
                      E²/13.3kW = 0.173Ω, and each of those elements is
                      carrying an astonishing 277 amps.  So we want 7 milliohms
                      per meter.  It turns out that that's about 12-gauge
                      copper wire, nominally 5 milliohms per meter.  2
                      millimeters across.  A higher-resistivity metal like iron
                      or nichrome would have to be even thicker.
                      
                      Better idea: put 9 2.7-meter wires in parallel on each of
                      the three circuits, so each wire can have 9×0.173Ω =
                      1.56 Ω = 0.58Ω/m.  That's 32-gauge copper magnet wire,
                      0.2mm diameter, 0.54Ω/m; or its thicker equivalent in
                      other metals.  Iron's resistivity is 5.7 times copper's,
                      so you need a 5.7 times thicker wire: 0.5mm, 24-gauge. 
                      Nichrome is 11 times the resistivity of iron, so you'd
                      need 1.6-mm-diameter nichrome.
                      
                      I don't know, I think the copper would probably melt
                      faster than the sand could conduct the heat away from it,
                      and the nichrome would definitely be fine, but too
                      expensive.  But you can extrapolate from this how to
                      solve the problem: by shortening the distance along the
                      heating wires to low-resistance busbars (possibly made of
                      rebar or leftover angle iron) and thus increasing the
                      number of parallel paths, you allow the use of
                      higher-resistance-per-unit-length and thus cheaper and
                      more workable heating elements; the limit of this
                      lightweighting is that the wires' surface area in contact
                      with the sand must cool them enough to prevent melting. 
                      By this method you can use a small amount of a conductor
                      of any resistivity at all, limited mainly by the
                      temperature.
                      
                      All these metals are fine at 700°, or for that matter
                      1000°.  Copper will have less of a tendency to oxidize
                      than iron, which would require a reducing atmosphere, and
                      nichrome will oxidize but remain protected by its
                      oxidation.  (A reducing atmosphere will destroy
                      nichrome.)  But, at a lower temperature still, like
                      600°, you could use 10μm thick household aluminum foil,
                      which is much easier to work with than any kind of 20μm
                      wire, but has a similar ratio of surface area to volume. 
                      It has 54% more resistivity than copper, so a 10μm ×
                      1mm strip is 2.7 ohms per meter.  Our previous objective
                      of 0.58Ω/m is a 4.6mm-wide-strip, which transfers heat
                      to the sand along its 9.2mm perimeter, like a 10-gauge
                      wire.  75m × 4.6mm is the size of about 5 or 6 pages of
                      A4 paper cut into strips.
       
                        sandy234590 wrote 15 hours 48 min ago:
                        Maybe stainless steel for the heating elements and
                        busbars?
                        
                        Cheaper than nichrome and copper. I feel like mild
                        steel would not last long in practice.
                        
                        Copper plated MIG welding wire might be good enough?
                        
                        Probably want to think about thermal expansion also,
                        especially configured as "walls", and with skins
                        considerably colder than cores.
       
                          pfdietz wrote 13 hours 52 min ago:
                          Austin Vernon claims they have a very cheap resistor
                          material for Standard Thermal but hasn't said what it
                          is.  I look forward to hearing that detail when it
                          leaks out.  A good chunk of their work while in
                          stealth was on the resistors, I understand.
       
                            kragen wrote 9 hours 29 min ago:
                            I think I've shown above that you can make the
                            resistor material itself almost arbitrarily cheap,
                            calculating for example how you can get 40
                            kilowatts out of 9.3 grams of aluminum foil, and
                            showing that with more busbars you can use even
                            less resistor material than that.  Aluminum itself
                            wouldn't work for Standard Thermal's target
                            temperatures, but you can make an arbitrarily thin
                            foil out of any metal, supporting it as a thin film
                            on an insulating ceramic such as porcelain if
                            necessary.  Copper, gold, silver, mild steel,
                            nickel, nichrome, other stainless, titanium,
                            platinum, and platinum/iridium, could all be made
                            to work, and in no case would the material cost be
                            significant.  Metal film resistors supported on
                            ceramic are being used to convert electrical energy
                            into heat in probably every electronic device in
                            your house.
                            
                            And the old standby for resistive heating of giant
                            piles of dirt, for example to bake it into
                            carborundum, isn't a metal at all—it's plain old
                            carbon, which you can if necessary bake in situ. 
                            Carborundum itself can also work, though it's not
                            malleable, and controlling its resistivity can be
                            tricky.
                            
                            MIG welding wire is an interesting possibility.
                            
                            The main potential obstacle, I think, is the
                            manufacturing cost, and as sandy234590 was saying,
                            potentially durability in use.    Vernon said
                            resistor durability had been one of their major
                            problems; I'd think that sand would impose less
                            stress on the resistors than generic dirt, but,
                            with quartz in particular, you could greatly reduce
                            the risk by not crossing the quartz dunting
                            temperature at 573°: [1] That obviously isn't an
                            option for Standard Thermal, but it would be
                            completely viable for household climate control,
                            just requiring somewhat more sand.
                            
                            Sandy points out, implicitly, that mild steel such
                            as the baling wire I suggested typically does not
                            last long at high temperatures.  But that's because
                            it oxidizes.  The same vulnerability is present in
                            most metals, though not silver, gold, platinum, and
                            platinum/iridium alloys, and only to a limited
                            extent for nickel, nichrome, and other stainlesses.
                             That oxidation can only happen in an oxidizing
                            atmosphere; the thin iron ballast wires in Nernst
                            lamps last indefinitely because they're sealed in a
                            reducing (hydrogen) atmosphere.  As I said, I think
                            you can maintain a reducing atmosphere in the sand
                            pore space by just including a little charcoal,
                            which will scavenge any oxygen that gets close to
                            the heating elements when they're hot, and may even
                            be able to reduce any oxide that does form, at the
                            cost of carbon monoxide emission.
                            
                            If the atmosphere inside the sand is oxidizing,
                            you'd probably want to either use something that
                            won't be damaged by oxidization, such as gold or
                            nichrome, or use a very thick heating element such
                            as carbon so that it will have an adequate service
                            life despite the oxidation.  Most stainless steels
                            will start to oxidize at a few hundred degrees,
                            even though they're fine at room temperature.
                            
                            (The main heating element in Nernst lamps, cubic
                            zirconia, was also immune to oxidation, but it had
                            some other drawbacks; for example, it needed to be
                            preheated into its conductive range with a platinum
                            preheat wire, and its rather aggressive negative
                            temperature coefficient of resistance made it prone
                            to thermal runaway when operated on a
                            constant-voltage source—thus the iron ballast
                            wire.)
                            
  HTML                      [1]: https://digitalfire.com/glossary/quartz+in...
       
                      pfdietz wrote 23 hours 25 min ago:
                      Sand batteries have a much higher cost per unit of energy
                      storage capacity, so they are in more direct competition
                      with batteries for shorter term storage.  It's hard to
                      compete with a storage material you just dig out of a
                      local hole.  The economics pushes toward crude and very
                      cheap.
                      
                      Having said that: a good design for sand batteries would
                      use insulated silos, pushing/dropping sand into a
                      fluidized bed heat exchanger where some heat transfer gas
                      is intimately mixed with it.  This is the NREL concept
                      that Babcock and Wilcox was (still is?) exploring for
                      grid storage, with a round trip efficiency back to
                      electricity of 54% (estimated) using a gas turbine. 
                      Having a separate heat exchanger means the silos don't
                      have to be plumbed for the heat exchange fluid or have to
                      contain its pressure.
                      
                      Getting the sand back to the top (where it will be heated
                      and dropping into silos) is a problem that could be
                      solved with Olds Elevators, which were only recently
                      invented (amazingly).
                      
  HTML                [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fu03F-Iah8
       
                        kragen wrote 22 hours 23 min ago:
                        (I completed my parent comment since you wrote your
                        response, which may make it confusing to read your
                        response; sorry about that.)
                        
                        I agree that local dirt is much cheaper than trucked-in
                        construction sand, but I think my design sketch above
                        shows that a "sand battery" whose only moving parts are
                        fans will be about 30× cheaper than a real battery at
                        household scale, even though the sand is still most of
                        the estimated cost.  A "sand battery" designed to power
                        a steam turbine is a much more difficult problem to
                        solve, but in this case the stated problem is just that
                        it's 24°F (-3°) outside, so I think much cheaper
                        solutions are fine, with no pressure vessels, stainless
                        steel, insulated silos, sand conveyors, or heat
                        transfer fluids other than garden-variety air.
                        
                        Do you have a good handle on the pressure (and
                        therefore power) requirements for getting air to flow
                        upward through sand?  I feel like you ought to be able
                        to get a pretty decent amount of thermal power out of
                        half a tonne of sand with a really minimal amount of
                        pumping, but that's only a gut feeling.  Definitely as
                        you go to graded-granulometry gravel the required head
                        drops off to almost nothing.
                        
                        Thanks for the link to the Olds device!  That's utterly
                        astounding.  Archimedes could have used it for raising
                        sand, although making a sturdy enough tube out of wood
                        might have been a bit of a chore.
       
                    pfdietz wrote 1 day ago:
                    The place I saw this most clearly described was in Standard
                    Thermal's concept, which will store the heat in huge piles
                    of dirt heated to 600 C.  The thermal time constant of such
                    piles can be many years. [1] [2]
                    
  HTML              [1]: https://www.orcasciences.com/articles/standard-the...
  HTML              [2]: https://austinvernon.substack.com/p/building-ultra...
  HTML              [3]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45012942
       
                      cyberax wrote 22 hours 35 min ago:
                      I ran the numbers on that, and it just doesn't work.
                      Stone has rather lousy specific heat capacity (less than
                      1kJ/kg/K, compared to 4.2kJ for water).
                      
                      A typical house in Midwest needs around 22,000kWh
                      (7.913×10^10 J) over the winter (75 million BTU - [1] ).
                      
                      If we assume the delta of 550 degrees (600 down to 50),
                      you'll need: 7.913×10^10 J / (550K * 1000Jkg^-1K^-1) =
                      143,872,727 kg of material in your pile. This is a
                      ridiculously stupid number. And I don't see any obvious
                      mistakes?
                      
  HTML                [1]: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=...
       
                        pfdietz wrote 14 hours 38 min ago:
                        Your decimal point slipped three places in that last
                        calculation; the result is too high by a factor of
                        1000.
                        
                        A more worthy criticism is that the pile for just a
                        single house is too small and would cool off too
                        quickly.
       
                          cyberax wrote 9 hours 32 min ago:
                          I don't believe it did? Delta of 550 degrees Kelvin
                          multiplied by 1000J per kg per Kelvin.
       
                            maxerickson wrote 7 hours 59 min ago:
                            You have 8*10^10 in the numerator and 5*10^5 in the
                            denominator, so the result should be roughly
                            8/5*10^5.
                            
                            Still big number.
       
                            pfdietz wrote 8 hours 47 min ago:
                            7.913e10 / ( 5.5e2 * 1.0e3 ) = 1.438e5, not 1.438e8
                            
                            When doing calculations like this I just fire up a
                            lisp and enter the thing to be calculated as lisp
                            form.
       
                              kragen wrote 4 hours 38 min ago:
                              I use units(1), which also helps me avoid
                              dimensional errors (dividing when I should have
                              multiplied, etc.):
                              
                                 You have: 7.913e10 J / 550K / (1J/g/K)
                                 You want: kg
                                   * 143872.73
                                   / 6.9505876e-06
                              
                              maxerickson says, "Still big number," and 144
                              tonnes would typically be an unwieldy quantity of
                              material if you had to buy it.    But Standard
                              Thermal's intention is not to buy dirt, just pile
                              up already-on-site dirt with a bulldozer or
                              excavator.  If we assume 1.3 tonnes/m³, that's
                              110m³, or, in medieval units, 144 cubic yards.
                              [1] tells us:
                              
                              > An excavator could be used to dig anywhere from
                              350 to 1,000 cubic yards per day, depending on a
                              number of factors including bucket capacity, type
                              of ground, operator skill and efficiency level,
                              and more. (...)
                              
                              > One of the biggest factors that impact how much
                              an excavator can dig in one day is the unit’s
                              bucket size, which typically ranges from 0.5 to
                              1.5 cubic yards of bucket capacity. Most common
                              regular-size excavators have a 1 cubic yard
                              bucket capacity, and mini excavators are closer
                              to the 0.5 cubic yard capacity.
                              
                              So, with this number, we're talking about a few
                              hours of work for a "mini excavator". [2] tells
                              us that a "4,000 lb. mini excavator" rents for
                              US$197 per day.  So the expense of moving the
                              dirt is not really significant, compared to other
                              household projects such as replacing the roof,
                              insulating the walls, or repainting the exterior.
                              
                              Standard Thermal mentions that they are in effect
                              firing the clay in the ground, that they've had
                              significant trouble with resistance-heater
                              reliability, and that their objective is to power
                              steam-turbine power stations with the stored
                              heat.  These three facts lead me to believe that
                              they're targeting a temperature closer to 1000°
                              than to 600°.
                              
  HTML                        [1]: https://www.eaglepowerandequipment.com/b...
  HTML                        [2]: https://www.bigrentz.com/rental-location...
       
                                pfdietz wrote 3 hours 46 min ago:
                                600 C is about what a coal fired power plant
                                would use.   And 600 C is around the maximum
                                that you want if you're using cheap steel for
                                the pipes.  Much beyond that and creep becomes
                                a problem.   So I don't think 1000 C is their
                                target.
       
                                  kragen wrote 3 hours 44 min ago:
                                  Hmm!  Interesting!  I would have thought that
                                  600° would be close to the minimum for
                                  producing supercritical steam, so any energy
                                  stored up to 600° would be "overhead" that
                                  couldn't be effectively recovered—only the
                                  heating above that.  And I assumed they would
                                  have to use cheap ceramic for the pipes,
                                  because oxidation is usually a problem for
                                  cheap steel even below 600°.
       
                                    pfdietz wrote 3 hours 41 min ago:
                                    The critical temperature of water is 374 C.
       
                                      kragen wrote 3 hours 31 min ago:
                                      You're right; I wonder why they operate
                                      supercritical steam turbines at 600°
                                      instead? [1] [2] [3] Oh, apparently
                                      because of "dramatic improvements in
                                      power plant performance":
                                      
                                      > Starting with the
                                      traditional 2400 psi / 1000 F (165 bar /
                                      538 C)
                                      single-reheat cycle, dramatic
                                      improvements in
                                      power plant performance can be achieved
                                      by
                                      raising inlet steam conditions to levels
                                      up to
                                      4500 psi/310 bar and temperatures to
                                      levels in
                                      excess of 1112 F/600 C. It has become
                                      industry
                                      practice to refer to such steam
                                      conditions, and
                                      in fact any supercritical conditions
                                      where the
                                      throttle and/or reheat steam temperatures
                                      exceed 1050 F/566 C, as
                                      “ultrasupercritical”. [4] Anyway,
                                      those are the plants that Standard
                                      Thermal wants to sell their
                                      product/service to.  And once the hot
                                      dirt falls below 600°, it can no longer
                                      heat the water to 600°.  So I think they
                                      have to be aiming far above that
                                      temperature, which is also why heating
                                      element reliability is a challenge and
                                      why the clays in the soil are firing (a
                                      phenomenon which only happens at 600°
                                      for the lowest-firing terra-cotta clays,
                                      more typically requiring
                                      1000°–1400°).
                                      
  HTML                                [1]: https://direns.minesparis.psl.eu...
  HTML                                [2]: https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7264/5...
  HTML                                [3]: https://www.modernpowersystems.c...
  HTML                                [4]: https://www.gevernova.com/conten...
       
                                        pfdietz wrote 1 hour 8 min ago:
                                        Most coal plants in the US aren't
                                        ultrasupercritical.  The first one only
                                        went operational in 2013, in Arkansas
                                        (the John W. Turk, Jr. Power Plant).
       
                                          kragen wrote 40 min ago:
                                          Oh, really?  What temperatures do US
                                          power plants operate their steam at?
       
                      mjevans wrote 1 day ago:
                      I'm going to want that pile hot enough to kill all the
                      bugs and pets that want to get near it.
       
                        pfdietz wrote 23 hours 46 min ago:
                        The surface will always be only slightly hot.  Heat
                        will be stored inside, insulated by overlying dirt. 
                        Dirt isn't the best insulator by thickness, but it's a
                        very good insulator by $.
       
              jeffbee wrote 1 day ago:
              I think they were referring to the fact that the chief reason
              there is not large-scale PV panel recycling is that very few
              panels have ever been retired. It turns out that short of
              physical destruction by hail etc a PV panel does not degrade
              beyond economic usefulness simply by being out in the sun. In
              fact some panels actually get more powerful. The
              surprising-to-some conclusion of NREL's PV Lifetime Project is
              that the economic lifetime of a PV panel is basically forever.
       
          jeffbee wrote 1 day ago:
          There is one constant to all these conversations and that is Silicon
          Valley tech dudes are grossly misinformed about the lifecycle of
          things. Solar panels don't wear out, batteries don't wear out as fast
          as they used to. This is evidenced both by undertaking weird dead-end
          startup ideas, and being susceptible to propaganda about the supposed
          downsides of solar energy and batteries.
       
       
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