Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu May 28 2026 08:16:20

AWUS01 KWNH 281047
FFGMPD
FLZ000-281446-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0264
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas affected...urban southeastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281046Z - 281446Z

Summary...Slow-moving downpours could cause urbanized flash flood
concerns this morning.

Discussion...A small cluster of thunderstorms was located near
Homestead.  These storms were located along a subtle confluence
zone parallel to the southeastern Florida coast, which was
supporting strong updrafts amid minimal convective inhibition,
abundant moisture (1.8 inch PW values), and ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Weak southerly steering flow was noted per objective analyses,
which should aid in slow northward migration of ongoing cells
through Miami/Ft. Lauderdale Metropolitan. Additionally, spots of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates were noted/estimated per MRMS, and should
these cells persist in intensity while drifting northward through
Miami, urban flash flood potential will increase.  Models/CAMs
suggest that this isolated potential will persist for at least a
few hours this morning (through 14Z/10a eastern).

Cook

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   26818034 26817986 25328020 25348062 26288055

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