Subj : Flood Threat GA/SC/NC
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Jun 09 2026 08:11:24

AWUS01 KWNH 091201
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-091730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0371
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 AM EDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Georgia...Upstate South
Carolina...Portions of Western North Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091200Z - 091730Z

SUMMARY...Near stationary, very efficient rainfall producing
showers capable of 2"+/hr may result in quick 2-3" totals and
localized flash flooding potential this morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV depicts a weak shear axis with vorticity
center at the 700-500mb confluence zone from return stream off the
Sargasso Sea across SE GA and the influence from the northern
stream at a small weakness in the overall ridging across the Deep
South.  Coincidentally, low to middle-level moisture is maximized
with Total PWats over 2-2.1" along the confluence axis through
depth.  While deep layer profile is fairly moist adiabatic, there
is some departure that even minimal low level heating quickly adds
to the limited instability, as noted by initial peaks of sunlight
and on Visible imagery new convective cores have already been developing.

While there is some convergence, the winds are very light though
depth limiting flux but also steering.  This is allowing for near
zero cell motions to increase residency time for the deep warm
cloud/efficient rainfall production processes.  Rates of 2"/hr are
probable for up to 1-2 hours with limited cold pool development. 
As such, scattered incidents of 2-3" totals along the eastern side
of shortwave/confluence axis may result in localized rapid
inundation/flash flooding conditions, especially given proximity
to any urban center or along steeper terrain slopes/narrower upper
reaches of narrow watersheds.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   35698212 35188149 34608180 34128263 32888339 
            32958412 33668457 34558413 34988346 35658278 
            
$$
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