Subj : Flood Threat SoCent AL
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Jun 17 2026 10:42:34

AWUS01 KWNH 171334
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-171932-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0435
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
933 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...in and near South-Central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171332Z - 171932Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are growing in coverage as
they enter an area of partially saturated soils.  Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A shortwave is moving through portions of AL, MS, and
AL presently, enhancing difluence aloft near southern AL.  This
appears to be leading to a convective uptick in this area, with
thunderstorms moving northeast at 15-20 kts appearing to be
focused along an incoming coastal front/gulf warmth and moisture
surge.  Precipitable water values are 1.9-2.2" per GPS data.  ML
CAPE of is ~1500 J/kg, which is increasing and migrating north as
of late.  Effective bulk shear of 25 kts could organize storms.

Flash flood guidance is modest across central AL at the present
time.  The available ingredients support hourly rain amounts to
2.5" which would breach the 3 hourly flash flood guidance on an
isolated to widely scattered basis and be a problem for urban
areas.  Flash flooding is possible into this afternoon.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   33218747 33028549 32728511 31678520 30888667 
            31268907 32228931 33018857 

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