Subj : DAY3 2/5 Risk Area Posted
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Jun 18 2026 07:39:13

ACUS03 KWNS 180620
SWODY3
SPC AC 180619

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central
Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

....Central Plains...

An upper ridge will initially be centered over the High Plains on
Saturday. An upper shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin
will develop eastward, emerging over the central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains by 00z, and breaking down upper ridging. As
this occurs, mid/upper level flow will increase and a lee low will
deepen in the vicinity of eastern CO. A surface trough/dryline will
extend southward near the CO/KS border and along the NM/TX border.
Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport rich
boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) northward across
KS, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints possible across much of NE.
Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the moistening boundary layer will
result in a moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) across
the central High Plains and portions of central/eastern NE/KS.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within
upslope flow along the surface trough from far southeast WY into
eastern CO. As storms develop east/southeast with time, an
increasing southerly low-level jet may foster upscale development
into one or more bowing segments. Overall, supercell wind profiles
suggest large hail and perhaps tornadoes will be possible. If storms
grow upscale, damaging wind potential will increase during the evening.

...Leitman.. 06/18/2026

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