Subj : DAY2 2/5 Risk Area Posted To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Sun Jun 28 2026 09:48:54 ACUS02 KWNS 280602 SWODY2 SPC AC 280600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ....Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will evolve out of the upper trough in the northern Rockies. The timing of this feature remains a bit uncertain. The strongest mid-level ascent will likely occur in eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota after 00Z. A surface low will deepen within the eastern Dakotas and lift north-northeast with time. A very moist airmass will be in place between a cold front in the central Plains and a warm front in the Upper Midwest. Upper level ridging will continue in the Midwest/East with modest breakdown of this ridge expected in the Dakotas/Minnesota. ....Eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota... The forecast remains rather uncertain across these regions. At least weak convection appears probable within parts of the Dakotas into western Minnesota during the morning. How this activity evolves will play a role in where afternoon severe potential will exist. Model agreement has marginally increased with regard to the evolution of the shortwave trough in the northern Plains and the surface low migrating north-northeast near the Red River. Even so, upper-level ridging that will persist through much of the period limits confidence in if and how many storms will develop during the afternoon/early evening. Should sufficient destabilization occur near the surface low, a portion of eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota appear to have the greatest relative potential for severe storms. All severe hazards would be possible given the 50+ kt of effective shear, 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and locally stronger low-level shear. Model solutions for activity near the surface low and areas southward into eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota are highly disparate. The ECMWF would suggest some potential for an MCS to develop near the surface low and track through parts of northern/east-central Minnesota along the buoyancy gradient. This particular scenario has been fairly consistent along with the depiction of a more southern surface low/upper trough. Solutions such as the RRFS would suggest a supercell or two could occur farther south along the South Dakota/Minnesota border. ....Nebraska into southern/central Minnesota... Though the timing of development differs, there has been an increasing convective signal trend in recent guidance along the cold front. There is at least some potential for this to occur during late afternoon with a window for storms to be surface based, but it is more probable that it occurs after dark when the low-level jet increases. Large hail could occur early in the convective cycle, but deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary should mean a quick transition into linear structures. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary concern, though a low-end tornado threat may exist given the stronger low-level jet. ...Wendt.. 06/28/2026 $$ --- MultiMail/DOS * Origin: ILink: Capitol City Online (454:3/107) .