Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Jul 09 2026 08:47:48

ACUS02 KWNS 090458
SWODY2
SPC AC 090456

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind
gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the
south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday
afternoon and evening.

....Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little general change from prior runs.
To the southeast of a vigorous short wave trough digging offshore of
the southern British Columbia coast, it appears that an increasingly
prominent mid/upper-level high will begin to form across portions of
the Colorado Valley/Plateau through southern Rockies vicinity late
Friday through Friday night.  Ridging to the north of the high is
also forecast to continue building along an axis across the northern
U.S. Great Plains into eastern Canadian Prairies, while downstream
positively tilted larger-scale troughing gradually shifts into and
across the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

The evolution of remnant weak troughing across the central Great
Plains into lower Missouri Valley remains much more unclear, based
on continuing varied model solutions  However, a belt of westerlies
to its south may remain convectively augmented in lower/mid-levels,
though perhaps weaker than Thursday.

The potential for at least moderate destabilization remains most
certain along the southern periphery of this regime, aided by a
corridor of steeper lower through mid-tropospheric lapse rates
associated with elevated mixed-layer air (probably based closer to
850 mb than 700 mb), above a seasonably moist boundary-layer.  The
latitude at which this will become focused remains a bit uncertain,
and by late Friday afternoon will largely depend on where outflow
from prior convection ends up and the extent to which it modifies.
However, corridors of stronger differential heating and developing
low-level warm advection might contribute to an environment
conducive to the evolution of at least small organizing clusters
with potential to produce severe wind and hail across eastern
portions of the central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley
through Friday evening.

In the wake of the eastward migrating weak mid-level trough,
convection-allowing guidance suggests that easterly low-level flow
into portions of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity will be sufficiently moist and unstable,
in the presence of steep lapse rates, to support scattered strong
thunderstorm development.  Some of these may become capable of
producing severe hail and wind.

...Kerr.. 07/09/2026

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