Subj : Flood Risk IL/IN/KY/OH
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Jul 11 2026 10:34:52

AWUS01 KWNH 111314
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-111800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0671
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
913 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Areas affected...eastern IL through central OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111312Z - 111800Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible from eastern IL into central IN and western/central OH
over the next 3-5 hours. Slow movement of heavy rain will support
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and potential for 2 to 4+ inch
total rainfall through 18Z.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery through 1245Z showed a few slow
moving areas of heavy rain extending across the central IL/IN
border and in west-central OH. These regions of heavy rain were
partially driven by embedded low to mid-level vorticity maxima or
remnant MCVs scattered throughout the OH and TN Valleys. Back
west, a larger scale mid to upper level vorticity max was seen in
water vapor imagery over western IL, advancing slowly to the east.
MLCAPE from eastern IL into OH was weak at 500-1000 J/kg as seen
on the 12Z SPC mesoanalysis and in 12Z soundings from ILX and ILN
but with high PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches. Locations from central IL
into central OH contained very weak 0-6 km mean winds of less than
10 kt, east of the main upper shortwave to the west, resulting in
slow movement of heavy rain cores.

The weak embedded impulses over the OH Valley are expected to
gradually drift toward the east over the next few hours with
regional flareups of heavy showers/thunderstorms containing hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches. Lift across the OH Valley will also be
aided by ascent within the right entrance region of an eastward
tracking upper level jet max located from northern IN into OH. The
axes of heavy rain are expected to align from roughly west to east
but also remain somewhat transient. Therefore, the flash flood
threat appears that it will remain isolated to widely scattered in
nature, but there are some scattered locations within the MPD
threat area that have lower FFG of about 2 inches or less in 3
hours. Through 18Z, peak total rainfall is expected to range from
2 to 4 inches, although locally higher totals cannot be completely ruled out.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41038505 40948355 40468193 39798149 39138184 
            38948408 38808593 38888791 39358865 40008863 
            40318835 40398781 40498718 40788678 40978630 
            
$$
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