Subj : Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Thu Jan 01 2026 07:00:02

877 
FXUS64 KMRX 011123
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
623 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

....New AVIATION...

..KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

- After morning light snow in southwest Virginia, clearing and 
  seasonal temperatures are expected.
 
- A weak system will bring rain to the region Friday into
  Saturday, with greatest rain totals near 1 inch in southern
  portions of the area.

- Another warming trend is expected into next week. 

&&

..DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Currently, the region is in a northwesterly flow pattern with 
troughing well off to the northeast and ridging ejecting out of the 
Rockies. A 110 to 120 kt jet streak is approaching from the west 
with a plume of moisture progressing from the Great Lakes. This 
pattern has continued chances for flurries/light snow through the
morning in southwest Virginia, which is already being observed to
our north. This moisture will gradually lift out of the area on 
New Year's Day, leading to clearing and a continuation of the 
recent warming trend. By Friday, troughing will lift even further 
way from the area with ridging to our west expanding and 
increasing height rises. Increasing warming will occur with 
temperatures rising above normal. A weak system will also eject 
out of the southern Plains and track just to our south. This will 
keep the better focus for rain in southern portions of the area 
Friday into Saturday, which does need rainfall as D2/Severe 
Drought has been declared for some. 

By Sunday, this system will be well to the east of our area with 
broad ridging and high pressure keeping the region dry. CAA behind 
this system will keep temperatures moderated close to normal. By 
early next week, however, even more notable height rises are 
expected, which will push temperatures above normal. By Wednesday, 
another system is expected to track far to our north with its 
associated front approaching the region. This will bring another 
chance for rain with even milder temperatures ahead of the front.

&&

..AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Cigs will likely dip to MVFR levels at times early in the period 
at TRI, and MVFR cigs may at least briefly affect TYS as well but 
the probability there looks to be below 30% at this time so just 
a scattered layer will be included at TYS for now. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected. Winds will generally be less than 10kts 
from the west and southwest. Winds at 2kft will increase late in 
the period, and it looks borderline for LLWS mainly TRI for a 
period overnight. Will not include LLWS yet, but this will bear 
watching as we get closer.

&&

..PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             58  37  58  47 /   0   0  30  90 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  52  36  56  44 /   0   0  10  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       51  34  54  42 /   0   0  10  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              44  30  51  40 /   0   0   0  50 

&&

..MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...99


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