Subj : DAY1 2/5 Risk Area Posted To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri Jan 09 2026 10:11:18 ACUS01 KWNS 091202 SWODY1 SPC AC 091201 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states. ....MS/AL This morning... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of MS. This activity is in a moist surface air mass with dewpoints in the mid 60s, and MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. VAD profiles suggest sufficient low-level shear for some concern for a tornado or two this morning as activity tracks northeastward into western AL. However, model forecast soundings suggest a warm layer in the 600-700mb layer that is likely limiting updraft strength and the overall severe risk. ....TX/LA This Afternoon... Strong, broad southwesterly flow aloft will be present across much of the southeastern United States today, with several small perturbations embedded within the flow. A quasi-stationary front is currently positioned from south TX into southern AR. The air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorm development. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ....LA/MS This Afternoon/Evening... By late afternoon, ample daytime heating/destabilization will lead to scattered thunderstorms over LA, spreading northeastward into MS. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but slowly strengthening low-level winds and shear will pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ....Southern MS/AL Overnight... The consensus of CAM solutions suggest that storms will become focused along a surface baroclinic zone late tonight from southeast MS into southern AL. During this period, most models suggest significant strengthening of the southerly low-level jet, with forecast hodographs becoming increasingly favorable for supercells and a few tornadoes - despite marginal thermodynamic support. ...Hart/Kerr.. 01/09/2026 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1) .