Subj : Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA To : All From : Sean Dennis Date : Fri Jan 09 2026 19:00:02 411 FXUS64 KMRX 092359 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 659 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026 ....New AVIATION... ..KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 650 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026 - Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through Saturday. - Multiple rounds of showers and a few embedded storms are expected through Saturday. An isolated threat for flooding exists south of I-40 where a Flood Watch was introduced. - Seasonally colder and mostly dry weather will return by Sunday into early next week, though a few snow showers with little to no accumulation will be possible in higher elevations Sunday. && ..DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026 A deep and positively tilted upper level trough is currently in place over much of the central CONUS while an associated surface low has lifted through Michigan's lower peninsula. Strong southwesterly 850mb flow around 40 to 50kts continues to promote anomalous PWAT near 1.3 to 1.5 inches as a precip shield spreads throughout East Tennessee. The strong H85 flow has also contributed to gusty mountain wave winds across the East Tennessee Mountains and adjacent foothills, however, the LLJ will briefly weaken as we continue into the afternoon and the strongest gusts into advisory level criteria will further wane. The Wind Advisory was allowed to expire at 18Z as planned. The main focus with this unsettled pattern through Saturday will be rainfall. Latest 6hr MRMS QPE values suggest this activity was producing between 1-1.5 inches of rain across central Tennessee as well as portions of western and central Alabama, though, a minor decrease in efficiency has been noted over the last hour or two as the LLJ weakens. While positioned just to our south, an additional up tick in 850mb flow between 40 and 50 kts is expected tonight. 12Z HREF suite was in pretty good agreement with an area of 1.5-2.5" across our southern tier of counties, including some localized totals in excess of three inches for storm total amounts. Because of this, have opted to introduced a Flood Watch from Bledsoe to Monroe and down into Cherokee and Clay counties of North Carolina. Because of the recent dry spell low-lying and poor drainage areas are the main concern. Severe threat seems very low as the persistent clouds and showers will hinder the ability to build in surface based instability. The best chance will be near the TN/NC/GA border late Saturday morning into the afternoon. The main concern will be damaging winds, but again this threat is very low. High pressure builds in Sunday into the new work week, with a period of dry and cooler conditions through Tuesday. Some brief snow flurries with little to no accumulation in the higher elevations may occur before moisture totally departs the region Sunday. Downstream from a amplified ridge over the PNW, troughing will deepen across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys mid week. Moisture wrapping around a surface low in the NE CONUS will lead to a return of light precipitation chances, which may lead to light snow accumulations across higher elevations, and seasonally cool temperatures for the latter half of the week. && ..AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026 Brief break in heavier precipitation until the next round approaches from the south tonight. Light to moderate rain at times with predominantly IFR conditions and possible LIFR VSBY and CIG. Precipitation will lighten across the area late morning to early afternoon Saturday. Winds will be light, but conditions will be MVFR at best through the TAF period. && ..PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 64 37 45 / 100 100 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 62 35 41 / 90 100 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 61 34 41 / 90 100 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 61 33 39 / 90 100 50 20 && ..MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Bledsoe-Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...KS --- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64) * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1) .