Subj : Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Mon Jan 12 2026 07:00:02

529 
FXUS64 KMRX 121141
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
641 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

....New AVIATION...

..KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Accumulating snow is becoming more likely for much of the area
  Wednesday night and Thursday, especially across the higher elevations
  of far east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Significant snow 
  accumulations possible especially across the higher terrain.

- Another wintry mix possible this weekend. Confidence is low on
  the development of this system.

&&

..DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

For Monday and Tuesday, surface ridging will build into the 
Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians with dry northwest flow 
aloft. Low afternoon relative humidity is expected for Monday.

For Wednesday through Thursday, ensemble cluster and latest 
deterministic models show a series of upper jets carving out a deep 
northern stream upper trough into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and the 
central and southern Appalachians. A baroclinic leaf will develop 
over the Tennessee valley ahead of the upper trough as the strong 
300mb jet dynamics enhances the incoming cold front/fronto-genetic 
forcing. An area of rain will move into the region Wednesday 
afternoon/evening.

For Wednesday night and Thursday, deepening upper trough will cold 
air aloft will move into the Appalachians with a quasi-stationary/ 
slow moving frontal front enhances the fronto-genetic forcing along 
with the cold air aloft steepening the low-level lapse rates for 
widespread precipitation. Vertical temperature profile becomes cold 
enough for rain to change to snow most locations by early Thursday 
morning. Freezing rain is not expected with this event. Thursday 
morning commute may be a problem for parts of the area.

For Thursday, upper trough axis will move east across the region 
with boundary layer flow becoming more northwesterly enhancing 
orographic lift. Cold air aloft squeezing available moisture and 
northwest flow orographic lift will continue snowfall over much of 
the area during the day, except for the southern Tennessee valley.

LREF probabilities of 1 inch or more are quite high for the Plateau, 
mountains, southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Significant 
snow accumulations are becoming more likely for the far east 
Tennessee mountains and mountains of southwest Virginia. 

For Thursday night, snow showers are likely to continue across the 
favored northwest flow snow locations of far east Tennessee and 
mountains of southwest Virginia. Light snow showers or flurries are 
possible in the evening for areas north of interstate 40.

For Friday, upper trough lifts northeast with dry conditions and 
moderation of temperatures.

For next weekend, ensemble clusters and latest deterministic models 
show a great deal of variability with another system moving into the 
Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians.

&&

..AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions with light winds and dry weather.

&&

..PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             50  29  57  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  46  28  55  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       46  27  53  36 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              43  21  52  33 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

..MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

.