Subj : Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA To : All From : Sean Dennis Date : Wed Jan 14 2026 07:00:01 330 FXUS64 KMRX 141139 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 639 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ....New UPDATE, AVIATION... ..KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 629 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 - Significant accumulating snow is expected across the higher elevations with lighter accumulations of a dusting to 1/2 inch for the Plateau and Valley from late this afternoon and evening through early Thursday morning. - Dry and cold weather is expected later on Thursday into Friday. - Another chance for rain or snow showers returns this weekend, especially over the higher elevations. - Cold and dry conditions will return Sunday into early next week. && ..UPDATE... Issued at 629 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Updated the precipitation chances for Thursday, both the HRRR and the RRFS depict scattered snow showers forming underneath the deep trough, with saturated sounding profiles in the DGZ supportive of snow in the cold environment during the day on Thursday. There's been some indications that these showers will have a moisture connection back to Lake Michigan, helping provide moisture in an otherwise drier environment. Sharp reductions in visibility and quick accumulations on roads is possible under these snow showers, though they are brief. Additional snow amounts of a half inch or so possible should these snow showers materialize during the day on Thursday. Activity will wane as Thursday afternoon progresses as the upper trough axis moves out. && ..DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Currently, troughing is to our northwest and will dig southeastward due to an upstream jet in excess of 160 kts. Downstream of this trough is a weaker jet, around 110 to 120 kts. A surface cold front is also near the Ohio River Valley, which will move into the area during the day. Also during this time, the downstream jet will approach with our region being in the right-entrance region. Direct ageostrophic vertical jet circulations will lead to increasing upper divergence and enhancing frontogenesis. This will help to increase coverage and intensity of precipitation that moves into the region throughout the day. Outside of the mountains, precipitation will begin as rain with transitions to snow before and near sunset. Based on the latest data, much of the mountains will already be cold enough for all snow when precipitation starts mid to late afternoon. For portions of southwest Virginia and the Cumberland Plateau, this occurs soon after with moisture exiting the Plateau earlier tonight. Latest soundings suggest saturation well into the dendritic growth zone during the evening hours, especially in the eastern half of the area. Based on these considerations, snow totals have increased for the mountains with an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for places in and near the Smokies. Moisture will largely exit by the early morning with 20 to 25 kts of northwest flow taking shape. This will continue some snow showers over the higher terrain, but additional accumulations for the mountains will be pretty limited. Throughout the day on Thursday, troughing will be centered to our east with high pressure expanding from the south. Some lingering flurries will continue, but increasing subsidence will lead to clearing conditions later in the day. With 850mb temperatures approaching -12 to -14 Celsius, highs will likely remain at or below freezing for most. A much colder night is also expected due to the subsidence and recent CAA. By Friday night into Saturday morning, another trough will dive down from the northwest, bringing additional precipitation chances. Models do still differ on precip amounts and the vertical profile. Temperatures around 850mb look to be well below freezing but with warmer temperatures below, meaning mixed precipitation is possible. This is less true for places further north and east, which are the more likely locations to see accumulating snowfall. Regardless, this system will be the main focus, following the one in the near-term. Afterwards, persistent troughing and an Arctic High will keep cold and dry conditions in the region. Highs on Sunday will likely remain near or below freezing with some moderation of temperatures early next week. && ..AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Sharp cold front to bring rain and gusty winds. CIGs will continue to deteriorate, and periods of IFR are possible amongst a predominate MVFR deck of clouds, especially during the passage of the cold front with the rain. Gusty winds will continue into tonight, and it's not out of the question for snow showers to impact KTRI tonight. Ceilings will remain low. && ..PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 23 36 21 / 80 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 20 31 18 / 90 60 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 20 32 18 / 90 50 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 19 27 13 / 80 80 40 0 && ..MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Thursday for Johnson-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene- Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains- Sevier Smoky Mountains. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Thursday for Russell-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wellington AVIATION...Wellington --- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64) * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1) .