Subj : Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Mon Jan 19 2026 07:00:02

498 
FXUS64 KMRX 191110 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
610 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

....New AVIATION...

..KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

- It will be cold and dry through Tuesday night, with the coldest
  conditions Monday night into Tuesday when below zero wind 
  chills will be possible in the higher elevations.

- A low chance for light rain and snow showers arrives for
  Wednesday night into Thursday. 

- A higher chance for precipitation returns for Friday into the
  weekend, with a mixed bag of precipitation types possible. 

&&

..DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

We start the period dry and cold as we remain under a broad upper
level eastern CONUS trough. A reinforcing shot of cold air will 
push in behind a dry cold front Monday, and Monday night will be 
the coldest of the week with valley lows ranging from around 10 
degrees through the teens, and single digits common in the 
mountains. Enough wind looks to persist over the mountains for 
some below zero wind chill values at times Monday night into early
Tuesday. For Tuesday, high temperatures will be around 10 to 15 
degrees below seasonal normals. 

The center of the cold surface high will slide off to our east by 
Wednesday, providing another dry day but with moderating 
temperatures. 

Models generally agree that a weak short wave and front will bring a 
low chance for some light rain and snow showers in the Wednesday 
night into Thursday time frame, although this system looks to have 
very limited moisture to work with.  

Models have been very inconsistent and uncertainty is high for the 
latter periods, but there is general agreement that a system will 
bring more precipitation to the area sometime in the 
Friday/Saturday/Sunday time frame. Right now models suggest a mixed 
bag of precip types, with both rain and snow possible, but given how 
far out it still is as well as the poor model agreement and 
consistency, we will need to monitor and wait for more clarity on 
the details as we get closer. 

&&

..AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Winds will be the main aviation impact this period, becoming gusty
later this morning as winds aloft mix down to the surface, likely
in the 20-25 kt range at TYS and TRI. Can't rule out a brief gust
of 15-20 kt at CHA, but this should be rare. Winds will diminish
late in the afternoon.

&&

..PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             43  19  42  23 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  39  14  37  20 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       37  14  36  20 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              35   9  31  16 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

..MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS


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