Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Sun Mar 29 2026 08:18:16 ACUS01 KWNS 291228 SWODY1 SPC AC 291226 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south Florida. ....Synopsis... Surface ridging currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic and covering much of the eastern CONUS is forecast to shift northeastward into the western Atlantic today as mid-level flow trends more westerly and surface pressure lowers over the Plains. Strengthening pressure gradient between the Plains troughing and the western Atlantic ridge will support moderate southerly low-level flow and modest moisture advection across the central and southern Plains. By early tomorrow (Monday), mid 50s dewpoints will likely extend from south-central OK into the Mid-South, with 60s dewpoints extending from central TX through the Lower MS Valley. Despite this increasing low-level moisture, warm temperatures aloft and negligible large-scale ascent will preclude thunderstorm development. Only thunderstorm chances across the CONUS today will be across central/southern AZ, south FL, and a small part the southeast LA Coast. Across south FL a weakening front and associated low-level convergence will combine with warm and moist conditions to support isolated thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms are also possible over the southeast LA coast in the confluent low-level southeasterly flow rounding the base of the surface ridging. Predominantly dry thunderstorms are anticipated across central/southern AZ where strong heating and deep mixing will occur beneath modest mid-level moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific. Given the high LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates, strong downbursts are possible. However, limited updraft strength and persistence should temper the overall severe potential. ...Mosier/Marsh.. 03/29/2026 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10) .