Subj : Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Sat May 02 2026 07:00:02

385 
FXUS64 KMRX 020519
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
119 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

....New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

..KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

- Portions of the area may see temperatures favorable for frost 
  Sunday morning.

- Cooler temperatures expected through the weekend, with a 
  warming trend early next week.

- Next best chance for widespread showers and storms will be the 
  middle of next week.

&&

..DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Currently, a shortwave is diving through the Ozarks and will 
continue into the southern Appalachians through the day. Regional 
radar paints a precip shield beneath a southern stream jet core atop 
southern portions of the Gulf States. This activity will progress 
eastward through the overnight/day. Latest hi-resolution guidance 
has remained consistent in holding the bulk of this precipitation to 
our south and east. The best chance for minimal light precip is in 
southwest NC and the mountains. 

H5 heights falling to around -2 to -3 standard deviations this 
afternoon into Sunday will translate to below normal sfc 
temperatures. With clouds expected to mostly clear Saturday night, 
Sunday morning temperatures look supportive of frost for portions of 
northeast Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North 
Carolina. Some of highest peaks in the SW VA/TN mtns may see 
isolated temperatures at or just below freezing, but don't believe 
this will be widespread enough to warrant a freeze warning. Portions 
of the Cumberland Plateau may also see some patchy frost, but temps 
seem a tad more borderline at this time. 

Minor H5 height rises and a shift to more amplified southwesterly 
flow in the low-levels will promote a warming trend back into the 
70s early next week. Most will remain dry into the early week as 
well, though slight chance PoPs exist in our far north as a weak 
vort max translates through the southern Ohio Valley Monday.  

A stronger shortwave is expected to reinforce the Great Lakes region 
troughing mid-week, with precip chances ramping up Wednesday/Wed 
Night. Latest NBM probabilities for rain accums 1.0" or greater are 
around 40-60%. Will also be worth keeping an eye on this system for 
strong/severe chances. Strong shear is all but certain, but 
instability may be a limiting factor, especially in the event of a 
nocturnal passage. There will also be potential for some late season 
mtn/foothill gusty winds with a southwesterly LLJ and tightening 
pressure gradient. Cooler and drier conditions end the week post 
FROPA.

&&

..AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Winds will
generally be north and northwest around 10kts or less, and some 
higher gusts can be expected during the day especially CHA.

&&

..PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  44  71  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  43  68  47 /  10  10   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       66  40  69  46 /  10  10   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              62  38  64  42 /  10  10   0  10 

&&

..MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...DGS


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