Subj : Severe Potential TX Watch
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed May 06 2026 08:37:08

ACUS11 KWNS 061319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061319 
TXZ000-061415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Areas affected...The Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061319Z - 061415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells will pose a large hail and wind
damage threat for the next couple of hours.  A small severe
thunderstorm watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection developed earlier this morning along a
surface front across the Edwards Plateau, and the storms have shown
supercell structures.  The 12z DRT sounding revealed strong buoyancy
immediately south-southwest of these storms, and the storms may
continue eastward along the immediate cool side of the front for the
next couple of hours before weakening by mid-late morning.  In the
interim, the storms will remain capable of producing occasional
large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) and severe outflow gusts (60-70
mph).  The need for a small severe thunderstorm watch is being
discussed with the central TX NWS offices.

...Thompson/Smith.. 05/06/2026

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30509786 30269829 30219926 30269976 30559988 30809965
            30919912 30969853 31029816 30929793 30509786 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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