Subj : Severe Potential SW TX Wa
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu May 07 2026 08:49:22

ACUS11 KWNS 071234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071234 
TXZ000-071430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071234Z - 071430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms with isolated hail potential may increase through
mid morning.

DISCUSSION...An isolated storm has recently developed east of Del
Rio, with other developing showers noted across parts of Edwards and
Val Verde Counties. While the region is post-frontal, rich moisture
in the 850-700 mb layer beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse
rates (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding) is resulting in moderate
to locally strong elevated buoyancy. Strong effective shear and
elongated mid/upper-level hodographs (also noted on the 12Z DRT
sounding) are conditionally favorable for elevated supercell
development with large hail potential. 

With large-scale ascent expected to remain subtle at best, cell
maturation and storm coverage within this conditionally favorable
environment remain uncertain. This in turn results in uncertainty
regarding the need for a watch. Regardless of watch issuance, storms
with isolated large hail potential may increase through mid morning.

...Dean/Mosier.. 05/07/2026

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29730187 30680145 30800041 30720005 30509969 29789938
            29029943 28599984 28480030 28740083 29010093 29730187 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

.