Subj : Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA To : All From : Sean Dennis Date : Tue May 26 2026 19:00:01 635 FXUS64 KMRX 261756 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 156 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026 ....New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... ..KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 154 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026 - Another day of showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the evening with isolated coverage. - Storm chances will not go away over the next several days, but the trend is to see longer and longer periods of dry weather and smaller windows of storms as we head into the back half of the week. - Temperatures remain moderate all week, but will feel muggy with dew points in the 60's to 70's through the weekend. && ..DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026 Another afternoon of expected showers and eventually some thunderstorms can be expected today as the overall synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged with high pressure over the Atlantic and a meandering trough/low across the southern plains. As of this writing the afternoon storms have been sluggish to fire off, likely due to the increased cloud coverage. Still expect storms to develop and increase in coverage, but many more people should stay fairly dry today compared to the last few afternoon/evenings. Tomorrow expect a similar story with a mostly dry morning and increasing storm activity in the afternoon/evening. Due to the more isolated coverage of the storms the flooding risk should be lower than it was over the weekend. Still could see a slow moving storm develop over a urban area causing quick flooding, but most locations should be able to handle the isolated storms over the next several days. Pattern stays fairly moist and moderately active with regards to storms through much of the week. Coverage might decrease even further Friday into Saturday as the stalled frontal boundary looks to get a shove to the south as we head into the weekend and we could be sitting on the drier northern side of the boundary. However if the front doesn't move far enough south then we could see an uptick in rain coverage over the weekend. Omega block pattern looks to try and break down over the weekend, but deterministic models are doing a poor job trying to handle what happens on the eastern side of the block. We could see a trough/low dive down through the southeast, but that's pretty atypical synoptically this time of year so am not quite ready to bite off on that solution yet. Higher confidence in the temperature aspect of the forecast as highs are expected to be within 5 degrees of seasonal normals most days for the rest of the week. Dew point values will remain elevated, likely in the 60's to low 70's meaning that even with the moderate temperatures it will feel muggy outside, especially in the afternoons. && ..AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026 Another day of afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across the eastern Tennessee Valley. Coverage will be isolated to scattered with 30-60 minutes of storms over an airport possible this afternoon into the overnight hours. All storm activity will begin to decrease in coverage after the sun sets this evening. && ..PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 82 66 84 / 50 60 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 82 65 82 / 50 80 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 65 81 64 82 / 50 80 60 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 80 62 81 / 50 70 90 60 && ..MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99 --- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64) * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1) .