Subj : Flood Potential KY/WV
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Jun 18 2026 07:39:13

AWUS01 KWNH 180907
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-181400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0445
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...central KY/WV northward to OH River

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180900Z - 181400Z

SUMMARY...Training and a few areas of flash flooding are likely to
continue from near the OH River, southward into central KY/WV
through 14Z. Hourly rainfall is expected to range from 1 to 3 inches.

DISCUSSION...0830Z radar imagery showed that a west-east axis of
thunderstorms continued to exhibit areas of training from southern
IN into northern KY and across southern OH. A bookend vortex was
noted to be tracking east across northern KY, just south of
Cincinnati, with a concerning west-east axis of training in its
wake setting up into the Louisville metro. Observed hourly
rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches have been reported within this
axis since 07Z, to the northwest of Louisville. The axis of
thunderstorms was preceded by an elongated outflow boundary with
~500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE in place (highest over western KY, lowest
over WV) according to 08Z SPC mesoanalysis data. PWs were also
near 2 inches along the OH River, supportive of high rain rates.

The outflow boundary and axis of thunderstorms is expected to
advance gradually south over the next 3-4 hours but
slowing/stalling over central and western KY is anticipated. This
will be with strong 40-60 kt of southwesterly to
west-southwesterly flow at 850 mb through at least 12Z, although
weakening of the low level winds is forecast between 12-15Z via
RAP guidance. Continued advection of higher low level moisture
downstream should act to increase MLCAPE locally above 1000 J/kg
for western/central WV through 15Z, increasing the likelihood of
higher intensity rainfall.

West to east training of thunderstorms will continue over the next
3-6 hours across the OH Valley, with hourly rainfall of 1 to 3
inches expected. Additional peak rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches
are expected in a few locations through 14Z with a few areas of
flash flooding likely.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...PAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39448088 39318030 38837983 38138034 37578105 
            37268206 36998377 36888564 36828785 36698942 
            37488954 37978803 38388645 38948439 39148305 
            
$$
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