Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri Jun 19 2026 07:57:25 ACUS03 KWNS 190717 SWODY3 SPC AC 190716 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. ....Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. The primary surface low is forecast to remain near the Texas Panhandle during the day Sunday, with a stationary front extending northeastward through southern Kansas, central Missouri, and into Illinois. An additional, perhaps convectively enhanced, surface low may be present across northern Missouri and Illinois during the afternoon/evening. ....Central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across portions of Kansas/western Missouri near the nose of the low-level jet. As this moves east through the day, areas southwest of this cluster, and perhaps immediately in its wake, are expected to destabilize substantially. This will represent a zone where storms are expected to develop along the front amid moderate instability and shear, most likely from northeast Oklahoma to near St. Louis. These storms would pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. A lower probability, but higher potential impact scenario could develop across parts of eastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois Sunday afternoon if a better defined, surface low develops along the front and deepens through the day. This is most notably shown by the NAM, but is also shown to a lesser extent by the ECMWF. This could result in a localized corridor of greater tornado threat on Sunday due to increased low-level shear. However, this scenario will be conditional on both the development of this surface low and the location of the morning MCS. Therefore, greater probabilities have not been added, but this potential scenario will continue to be monitored. ....Central High Plains... Scattered storms are likely to develop in the post-frontal airmass across western Kansas, eastern Colorado, and southwest Nebraska on Sunday afternoon/evening, triggered by a shortwave trough overspreading the region. Strengthening mid-level flow (near 50 knots based on much of the 00Z guidance) atop moderate instability will support supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Bentley.. 06/19/2026 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10) .