Subj : Flood Potential KS/NE/OK To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue Jun 23 2026 08:32:26 AWUS01 KWNH 231224 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-231822- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0505 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 822 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026 Areas affected...Western KS, NE and OK Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 231222Z - 231822Z Summary...Convection exhibiting backbuilding characteristics will maintain an isolated flash flood threat across the High Plains through the morning hours. Discussion...Regional radar and IR imagery show an area of robust convection persisting across portions of the High Plains. This activity is being sustained by strong low-level moisture transport and persistent low-level convergence situated to the east of a surface low centered over northeast Colorado. This axis of low-level ascent and moisture convergence is expected to persist through the morning hours. Recent mesoanalysis indicates moderate MUCAPE values currently ranging from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. A notable increase in low level moisture and a destabilization trend early this morning, with MUCAPE having increased by roughly 400 to 600 J/kg, likely produced this convective uptick. Steep mid-level lapse rates support some hail production, but hourly rainfall of 1-2" is still probable in any storms that briefly train. The setup is favorable for some training and backbuilding convection. While the mean cloud-layer flow is westerly, Corfidi vectors are oriented from the north-northwest. This is allowing new convective cores to periodically backbuild westward into the better instability pool. Recent IR satellite trends corroborate this updraft maintenance, displaying steady to actively cooling cloud tops over the region. Given the persistent low-level convergence and backbuilding potential, this convection is expected to maintain its intensity and coverage over the next several hours. It does seem increasingly likely that the convection over western NE will grow upscale into a small MCS and drop southward across southwest NE into western KS. While this activity should be primarily forward-propagating, it may overrun downstream convection, resulting in potential training and a locally increased flash flood risk. Where repeated tracking of heavy convective cores over the same areas occurs, at least an isolated flash flood risk will exist through the morning. Hourly rainfall should generally stay in the 1?2" range, although it could locally exceed 2" where training is maximized. Storm total rainfall through 18Z will likely exceed 3" locally across the region. Chenard ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...OUN... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 41110029 39779993 36999941 35839938 36100036 36940112 38380136 40920155 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10) .