Subj : DAY2 2/5 Risk Area Poste To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Tue Jun 30 2026 13:59:00 ACUS02 KWNS 300608 SWODY2 SPC AC 300607 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will again be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns. ....Mid-Missouri Valley into central Wisconsin... Models are in general agreement that a cluster/MCS will be ongoing in the eastern South Dakota/southern Minnesota vicinity early Wednesday morning. There is at least some potential for damaging surface gusts with this activity. Further intensification could also occur as the airmass destabilizes in parts of Wisconsin into the afternoon. However the early day activity evolves, an outflow boundary from this activity will serve as a focus for additional afternoon thunderstorms. 70+ F dewpoints to the south of the boundary will again promote strong to locally extreme buoyancy. Moderate to strong mid-level winds on the southern flank of the upper trough in Canada will allow for 40-55 kt of effective shear near the surface boundary. Initial supercells will be capable of large to isolated very large (around 2-2.5 in.) hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Given the instability, strong downdrafts will likely lead to upscale growth relatively quickly. The risk for severe/damaging winds will become the primary hazard with time, particularly if an MCS can develop. A Slight Risk has been added to cover both potential scenarios. ....Northeast... The forecast continues to be uncertain given the nebulous forcing for ascent. Nonetheless, substantial buoyancy will be in place across the region (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Effective shear of 35-40 kt will promote some storm organization. Model guidance shows variable solutions from more isolated cellular activity to a cluster moving southeastward out of Canada. Given the low confidence in placing more organized activity, a Marginal Risk will be maintained for now. Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible. ....Central High Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected within the lee trough during the afternoon. A deeply-mixed boundary layer will promote potential for severe winds especially if any clustering can occur. Shear will be modest and severe coverage is expected to be isolated. ....Southeast... Strong buoyancy will be in place during the afternoon given rich moisture (70+ F dewpoints). Shear will be quite weak with some minor enhancement in the lower Mississippi Valley. Models do show some potential for clustering, but the location is quite variable. Lack of even subtle features to focus convection keeps confidence in a more organized damaging wind threat low. ...Wendt.. 06/30/2026 $$ --- Scorpio BBS * Origin: (618:250/10) .