Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Wed Jul 01 2026 00:19:01

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 01-Jul 03 2026

             Jul 01       Jul 02       Jul 03
00-03UT       4.00         3.33         1.67     
03-06UT       5.00 (G1)    4.00         1.67     
06-09UT       3.67         3.00         1.67     
09-12UT       3.00         2.67         1.33     
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         1.33     
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         1.33     
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         1.33     
21-00UT       4.33         1.67         1.33     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are early 01 Jul in response to
ongoing influences from the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 26
Jun. Analysis is ongoing to evaluate potential Earth impacts from the 30
June X1.1 CME, with preliminary tracking suggesting an arrival over
03-04 Jul.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026

              Jul 01  Jul 02  Jul 03
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: The probability for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms increases beginning 03 Jul as Regions 4478 and 4479 continue to
develop and move westward into a more favorable position to connect with
Earth.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 30 2026 2050 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026

              Jul 01        Jul 02        Jul 03
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: Isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events primarily due to
the potential of Regions 4478 and 4479.


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