Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Sat Jul 04 2026 00:19:01

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 04-Jul 06 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 04-Jul 06 2026

             Jul 04       Jul 05       Jul 06
00-03UT       5.67 (G2)    2.67         3.00     
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         4.00     
06-09UT       4.33         2.33         3.33     
09-12UT       4.33         2.33         3.33     
12-15UT       3.67         2.33         3.00     
15-18UT       3.67         2.33         3.00     
18-21UT       3.33         4.67 (G1)    2.00     
21-00UT       2.33         5.00 (G1)    2.00     

Rationale: CME arrival from the event on 30 June is likely to bring G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions, with a chance for G2 (Moderate)
levels early on 04 Jul. Further CME activity from 01-02 Jul, combined
with possible influences from +CH72, are likely to bring active to
additional G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 05 Jul, with isolated periods
of G2 (Moderate) levels possible.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 04-Jul 06 2026

              Jul 04  Jul 05  Jul 06
S1 or greater   20%     20%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms through 06 Jul due to the more geoeffective locations
of the complex regions on the solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 03 2026 1811 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 04-Jul 06 2026

              Jul 04        Jul 05        Jul 06
R1-R2           70%           70%           55%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, through 06 Jul.


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