Subj : DAY1 2/5 Risk Area UPDATE To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri Jul 10 2026 12:30:52 ACUS01 KWNS 101632 SWODY1 SPC AC 101630 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ....Southern/Central High Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon in a weak low-level upslope regime. Ample heating due to the void of cloud cover and a high sun angle will facilitate the development of very steep lower tropospheric lapse rates. A cluster or two is forecast to eventually evolve this evening over southeast CO and from the OK-TX Panhandles into far eastern NM. Severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the primary hazard. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores given moderate deep-layer shear. ....Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley... An MCV near the northeast KS/southeast NE border will migrate eastward today and serve as a forcing impetus for thunderstorms this afternoon. Heating in wake of earlier showers/storms will act to destabilize the boundary layer ahead of storms forming in proximity to the MCV. Some modest enhancement of mid-level westerly flow may promote organized storms, including possibly supercells, in addition to organized clusters. Hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards with this activity. ....Tennessee Valley/Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into the southern Appalachians will likely aid additional convective development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and into the Piedmont by late afternoon. Multicells capable of localized damaging gusts (50-60 mph) will be the primary threat with the stronger water-loaded downdrafts. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorm development is also forecast farther north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley where multiple weak mid-level perturbations should develop eastward in generally zonal flow aloft. While mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear will be slightly stronger across this region compared to areas farther south, instability should be weaker. Regardless, occasional strong/damaging winds may occur with any thunderstorm clusters that can develop along/south of a front this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. ....Western Florida Peninsula... A couple of stronger storms may develop along the sea breeze this afternoon. PW near 2 inches will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps wind damage. ....Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/near a weak front from parts of eastern SD and vicinity into western MN. Deep-layer shear will be weak and limit storm organization but steepened lapse rates may support an isolated risk for localized severe gusts or marginally severe hail with the stronger cores. ....Southeast AZ... Forecast soundings later today show 20-kt northeasterly 500-mb flow atop weak low-level westerly flow. This slight enhancement to flow may aid in storm movement and some cold pool organization with the scattered convection that develops. Steep surface to 400-mb lapse rates may enable a few severe gusts with the stronger cores. ...Smith/Chalmers.. 07/10/2026 $$ --- MultiMail/DOS * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10) .