Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue Jul 14 2026 09:10:18 ACUS02 KWNS 140544 SWODY2 SPC AC 140542 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe storms continues to appear low on Wednesday. .... Synopsis ... A broad mid-level ridge across the central United States will take on an increasingly negative tilt on Wednesday, with the elongated highest heights within the ridge found from the eastern Dakotas southeast into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This will occur in large part due to an eastern Pacific closed low building the ridge axis northward into western Canada, a strong shortwave trough impinging upon the northeast periphery of the ridge, and a closed mid-level low undercutting southern portions of the ridge as it begins to be drawn northwestward toward the main belt of westerlies. At the surface, generally hot conditions will be maintained across most of the CONUS -- the exception largely being northern New England. A moist airmass will remain entrenched across much of the eastern US, with a southward advancing surface boundary across the Northeast serving to delineate the warm, moist airmass to the south from the cooler, drier airmass to the north. .... Northern New Jersey north/east into far southern New England ... An unstable airmass will be in place along and south of the aforementioned surface front where MUCAPE values should increase to between 500-1500 J/kg during the afternoon. The front will be on the southern fringe of the greater mid-level flow, contributing to effective-layer shear on the order of 45 knots. Modest height falls may overspread the frontal boundary during the afternoon in association with an approaching mid-level speed maximum. This may provide enough forcing for widely scattered thunderstorm development in the region from the lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic and far southern New England. The best signal for initiation is along the coastal areas of southern New England/New York, which will limit their potential to produce severe weather before moving offshore. Should thunderstorm initiation occur earlier in the day (and thus farther inland) or thunderstorm coverage is greater than currently expected, a marginal threat for large hail and damaging winds may be realized and severe probabilities would need to be introduced in a later outlook. .... Western Montana ... Thunderstorms will once again be possible on Wednesday, thanks in large part to the continued presence of mid-level moisture and modest diurnal heating. Model guidance suggests that widespread cloud cover may limit afternoon heating, which would impact overall instability and resulting thunderstorm intensity. Should robust convection develop, the region remains beneath enhanced mid-level flow that may be transported down to the surface as strong thunderstorm winds/outflow. However, confidence in this occurring is too low to warrant unconditional severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Marsh.. 07/14/2026 $$ --- MultiMail/DOS * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10) .