Subj : Flood Risk AZ
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Jul 18 2026 14:52:00

AWUS01 KWNH 181125
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-181723-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0763
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
724 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181123Z - 181723Z

Summary...Showers are slowly increasing in coverage across central
AZ.  Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to
flash flooding.

Discussion...Satellite imagery shows a batch of warm topped
cloudiness across portions of AZ at the present time.  Radar
imagery is showing an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
within the cloudiness as of late.  This is occurring to the
southwest of an apparent shortwave in the Four Corners which is
nudging/digging southwest.  Precipitable water values are ~2" in
the desert and just over 1" in the Mogollon Rim.  MU CAPE in the
region is 500-3000 J/kg.  Effective bulk shear is under 25 kts.

The available ingredients support hourly rain amounts up to 2.5",
with both the 06z HREF and 00z REFS indicating should be most
possible after 12z.  This would occur wherever any random cell
training or cell mergers occur.  This degree of rainfall would be
most problematic from a flash flooding perspective in urban areas,
burn scars, box canyons, and dry washes/arroyos.  Flash flooding
occurrences are expected to be widely scattered.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36461523 36411189 33580941 31510902 31101049 
            31841221 34031420 

$$

--- Scorpio BBS
 * Origin: capitolcityonlinet.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

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