Subj : Flood Risk FL W Coast
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Jul 19 2026 09:01:44

AWUS01 KWNH 191146
FFGMPD
FLZ000-191744-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0779
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of the FL West Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191144Z - 191744Z

Summary...Periods of banding around the east side of a tropical
disturbance have the potential for hourly rain amounts to 3",
which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Bands of showers and thunderstorms have occasionally
organized near the West Coast of FL within a region of confluent
850 hPa flow south of Tampa Bay around the east side of a
developing tropical disturbance, which has been growing in size
over the past couple of days while edging west-northwest. 
Precipitable water values of 2-2.25" lie here.  Effective bulk
shear of 30 kts exists, higher than yesterday, which is leading to
the banding.  An ML CAPE gradient exists along the coast, with
2000-3000 J/kg offshore.

The guidance indicates an increasing signal for heavy rainfall in
this area with time, extending to at least 18z.  Any banding that
persists for an hour or so would be capable of 3" an hour totals
in this environment.  There is concern that the west-northwest
drift could counter the tendancy for rainbands to extend farther
from the center of the warm core system, and that bands could get
stuck at times.  Given the heavy rain potential, there could be
flash flooding, particularly in urban areas.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   28098240 26958186 25838122 25578132 25658165 
            25948188 26568234 27228265 27938289 

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