Subj : War is coming?
To   : metalhead
From : tenser
Date : Mon Oct 09 2017 10:15:31

On 10/08/17, metalhead said the following...
 
 me>  te> Yup.  The ICBMs they've got probably have range to get as far as New
 me>  te> York. Whether they've got the payload miniaturized to the point that
 me> 
 me> I don't think of Kim as the lunatic that others make him out to be. He's
 me> on a mission, and when it comes down to it, other rogue, or
 me> untrustworthy regimes will back him up, making things extra difficult
 me> for our military & diplomats.

I'm not sure what those regimes would be.  Right now, he's getting some cover
from China who, let's be frank, is only doing so because they view having a
semi-puppet fail-state along their border as the better part of a bad thing
vs. dealing with the grief of a refugee crises that a reunified Korea would
get them, not to mention having a Western-aligned state buddy-close.  North
Korea is basically a buffer for China right now.

But if Kim's really stupid enough to lob a nuke at Guam, then China
understands that the gloves come off of the US response and there's little
they could do about it internationally.  Thus, they're doing a bit of a
tight-rope dance to keep him moderately in check.

I suspect that it's not so much that Kim is crazy as it is that Kim thinks
he's playing a bigger game than he's got the shoes for.  But that said, it's
simply not normal behavior to feed your uncle to starving dogs because he
didn't clap loudly enough for you.

 me>  te> If it pops off nuclear between Cheetolini and Fatty Kim, ain't nothin
 me>  te> going to survive.  The odds of China staying out of it are basically
 me>  te> zero, and then we're all screwed.
 me> 
 me> How do you think China will react to a US attempt to overthrow Kim? And
 me> Why?

How will they react?  Badly.  It's the buffer-zone thing; since the
cease-fire went into effect in the Korean war, they've had a state that's
essentially friendly to them blocking American influence.  Similarly with
Russia (Khasan to Najin is what, 50 miles?).  So the US coming in and
pre-emptively changing regimes isn't going to go over well and would probably
bring in Chinese military involvement.

That's one of the things that makes it such a shit-sandwich.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A35 (Windows/32)
 * Origin: ACiD Telnet HQ / blackflag.acid.org (9:91/17)

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