Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Sun Mar 16 2025 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 16-Mar 18 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 16-Mar 18 2025

             Mar 16       Mar 17       Mar 18
00-03UT       1.67         3.67         3.67
03-06UT       2.33         3.00         3.33
06-09UT       3.00         2.67         3.00
09-12UT       3.00         2.00         2.00
12-15UT       3.33         2.00         2.00
15-18UT       3.33         2.33         3.00
18-21UT       3.33         2.67         3.33
21-00UT       3.67         3.00         3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 16-Mar 18 2025

              Mar 16  Mar 17  Mar 18
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 16-Mar 18 2025

              Mar 16        Mar 17        Mar 18
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)
and a slight chance for X-class flares through 17 Mar.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.0 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

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