Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Wed Mar 19 2025 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 19-Mar 21 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 19-Mar 21 2025

             Mar 19       Mar 20       Mar 21
00-03UT       3.67         3.00         4.00
03-06UT       3.67         2.67         3.00
06-09UT       2.33         2.33         2.67
09-12UT       1.67         2.00         2.33
12-15UT       2.00         2.00         2.00
15-18UT       2.33         2.33         2.00
18-21UT       2.67         3.33         2.33
21-00UT       2.67         3.67         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2025

              Mar 19  Mar 20  Mar 21
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2025

              Mar 19        Mar 20        Mar 21
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: A high chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and
a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3, Strong), will persist
through 21 Mar.



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