Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Sat Mar 22 2025 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Mar 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 22-Mar 24 2025 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 22-Mar 24 2025

             Mar 22       Mar 23       Mar 24
00-03UT       5.33 (G1)    3.67         2.67
03-06UT       5.33 (G1)    3.33         2.00
06-09UT       4.00         2.67         2.00
09-12UT       2.67         2.67         1.67
12-15UT       2.67         2.00         2.00
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         2.00
18-21UT       2.00         2.33         2.67
21-00UT       2.33         2.67         2.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected early
on 22 Mar due to lingering CME effects. No significant transient or
recurrent solar wind features are forecast on 23-24 March.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 22-Mar 24 2025

              Mar 22  Mar 23  Mar 24
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 21 2025 1558 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 22-Mar 24 2025

              Mar 22        Mar 23        Mar 24
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to
M-class flares will persist through 24 Mar.



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