Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Wed Apr 09 2025 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Apr 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 09-Apr 11 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 09-Apr 11 2025

             Apr 09       Apr 10       Apr 11
00-03UT       4.00         3.00         1.67
03-06UT       3.67         3.67         1.67
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         2.00
09-12UT       2.33         2.33         3.00
12-15UT       2.00         2.00         4.00
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         3.33
18-21UT       2.67         2.33         2.00
21-00UT       3.33         3.00         2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected on 09 Apr under
negative polarity CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 09-Apr 11 2025

              Apr 09  Apr 10  Apr 11
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 08 2025 2222 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 09-Apr 11 2025

              Apr 09        Apr 10        Apr 11
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will
persist through 11 Apr primarily due to the flare potential observed in
ARs 4048 and 4054.



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