Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Tue May 06 2025 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 06-May 08 2025

             May 06       May 07       May 08
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    3.67         2.67
03-06UT       4.33         4.00         2.33
06-09UT       3.67         3.00         2.67
09-12UT       3.00         2.33         2.33
12-15UT       2.67         2.67         2.00
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         2.00
18-21UT       2.67         3.00         2.33
21-00UT       3.00         2.33         2.67

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 06 May, and active levels on 07 May, due to sustained negative
polarity CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 06-May 08 2025

              May 06  May 07  May 08
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 06-May 08 2025

              May 06        May 07        May 08
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity through 08 May.



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