Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Thu May 15 2025 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 15-May 17 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 15-May 17 2025

             May 15       May 16       May 17
00-03UT       2.33         2.33         3.33
03-06UT       2.33         2.33         2.00
06-09UT       2.67         2.33         2.00
09-12UT       2.67         1.67         3.00
12-15UT       2.00         2.33         3.00
15-18UT       2.67         2.33         3.67
18-21UT       3.67         2.00         3.33
21-00UT       3.00         2.33         3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 15-May 17 2025

              May 15  May 16  May 17
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 14 2025 0825 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 15-May 17 2025

              May 15        May 16        May 17
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           30%

Rationale: Given the magnetic complexity of Region 4087, theres a 75%
chance that M-Class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) level flare activity will
occur through 17 May with a 30% chance for X-Class (R3-Strong) levels
during the same time.



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