Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Fri Jul 11 2025 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jul 11 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 11-Jul 13 2025 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 11-Jul 13 2025

             Jul 11       Jul 12       Jul 13
00-03UT       1.67         2.33         2.33
03-06UT       1.67         2.00         2.00
06-09UT       1.33         2.33         2.33
09-12UT       1.33         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       1.33         2.33         2.00
15-18UT       1.33         2.67         2.00
18-21UT       1.67         2.33         2.00
21-00UT       1.33         2.33         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 11-Jul 13 2025

              Jul 11  Jul 12  Jul 13
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 11-Jul 13 2025

              Jul 11        Jul 12        Jul 13
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 11-13 Jul, primarily due to the
flare potential of Region 4136.



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