Path: senator-bedfellow.mit.edu!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!news.kodak.com!news-nysernet-16.sprintlink.net!news-east1.sprintlink.net!news-peer-europe.sprintlink.net!news.sprintlink.net!netnews.com!newspeer.monmouth.com!intgwpad.nntp.telstra.net!news1.optus.net.au!optus!news.usyd.edu.au!ipso!corona!not-for-mail From: rwc@ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Newsgroups: aus.radio.amateur.misc,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Subject: IPS Daily Report - 15 August 99 Followup-To: aus.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.amateur.misc Date: 15 Aug 1999 23:53:33 -0000 Organization: IPS Radio & Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Lines: 111 Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Distribution: world Message-ID: <7p7jtt$kus@flare.syd.ips.gov.au> NNTP-Posting-Host: flare.syd.ips.gov.au Xref: senator-bedfellow.mit.edu aus.radio.amateur.misc:6584 rec.radio.amateur.misc:189539 rec.radio.info:14350 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 1999 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW ** ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 15 Aug: Low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 131/85 GOES satellite data for 14 Aug Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+05 (normal) X-ray background: B3.7 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 132/86 134/88 136/90 COMMENT: A jump in solar wind speed was observed at around 0948UT, from 300 to 400 km/sec. Solar wind speed is currently mildly elevated at 450km/sec. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet to Active Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K Australian Region 16 2223 4443 Townsville 17 1233 4443 Hobart 14 1223 4433 Learmonth 16 2223 4443 Canberra 17 2323 4443 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 AUG : Townsville 3 Hobart 0 Canberra 36 Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A Fredericksburg 12 Planetary 10 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 5 2112 1222 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 16 Aug 12 Unsettled 17 Aug 9 Unsettled 18 Aug 16 Unsettled to active COMMENT: A impulse was observed in the field around 1048UT, active conditions observed after this time. Recurrence suggests that active periods are probable during interval 19-21 August. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No Proton/PCA Event In progress 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 16 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal 17 Aug Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal 18 Aug Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 15 Aug 83 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Equatorial Australian Region: Enhanced by 20% during local day Near predicted monthly values during local night. Northern Australian Region: 15-20% Depressed to near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian and New Zealand Region: Near predicted monthly values Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base): Near predicted monthly values. Predicted Monthly T index for August: 124 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 16 Aug 90 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 17 Aug 90 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 18 Aug 90 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions may have been experienced during local night hours. -- IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc@ips.gov.au PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9210 8060 .