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Little Expected of Latest Peace Talks Between Thai Govt., Muslim Rebels

Zsombor Peter

   YANGON - The government of Thailand and Muslim separatists in the far
   south of the Buddhist-majority country have begun a new round of peace
   talks, but some analysts say the negotiations have little chance of
   scoring a breakthrough.

   After months of backchannel meetings spanning Asia and Europe, the
   government met with leaders of the largest of the rebel groups, Barisan
   Revolusi Nasional (BRN), for formal talks for the first time in six
   years on Jan. 20 in Malaysia, which is brokering the process. A second
   meeting is expected in early March.

   Having rejected BRN's demands for the inclusion of independent
   observers in the past, the Thai government wooed the rebel group back
   to the negotiating table at least in part by finally relenting, said
   Srisompob Jitpiromsri, who teaches conflict studies at the Prince of
   Songkla University in Pattani.

   For BRN, "this is a very critical condition. They think that talks ...
   without any international observation would be risky for them and it
   will not be a guarantee for sustainable talks," he said.

   Observers from Thailand and Switzerland reportedly joined the Jan. 20
   meeting, but neither side has shared details about their contingents.

   Matthew Wheeler, a Bangkok-based analyst for the International Crisis
   Group, a non-government research organization, said BRN's senior
   leaders may also have been drawn out by a waning faith in military
   victory.

   "I think the reason [for the new talks] is that BRN recognizes, or at
   least some in BRN recognize, that the conflict is not going to end on
   the battlefield for them; it's going to have to end at the negotiating
   table," he said.

   "They've been waging a struggle using violent means for 15 or 16 years
   and don't appear to have very much to show for it. So I think for the
   militant side, for BRN, they've got to be realistic about what their
   ultimate goals are and how they can expect to achieve them."

   Wheeler said there are those in Thailand's politically powerful
   military involved in the talks who also believed that the south cannot
   be settled with force alone.

   Paul Quaglia, a former U.S. intelligence officer who now heads a local
   security and risk consultancy, PSA Asia, said the government -- short
   on accomplishments since winning a tainted March 2019 election after
   five years of military rule -- is also keen to show some results.
   Re-animating a moribund peace process would give it something to boast
   about.

   But with little popular interest in the insurgency except on the rare
   occasions when the violence creeps out of the south, or after an
   especially brutal attack, "there's no political pressure to put a lot
   of capital and emphasis into it right now," Quaglia added.

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