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How COVID-19 Jail Releases is Impacting US Crime Rate

Masood Farivar

   WASHINGTON - Many large U.S. cities that kept people out of jail at the
   apex of the COVID-19 outbreak did so without seeing a spike in crime,
   according to a new study that looks at the relationship between crime
   and efforts to reduce jail populations during the pandemic.

   The report, released Monday by the [1]American Civil Liberties Union,
   examined data on jail population and crime in 29 of the largest cities
   in the United States. The study found that in all but one city --
   Denver, Colorado -- crime rates fell even as fewer arrests were made
   and jail numbers were reduced.

   "Over this time period, we found that the reduction in jail population
   was functionally unrelated to crime trends in the following months,"
   the report says. "In fact, in nearly every city explored, fewer crimes
   occurred between March and May in 2020 compared to the same time period
   in 2019, regardless of the magnitude of the difference in jail
   population."

   Although other factors such as mandatory stay-at-home orders kept the
   U.S. crime rate down this spring, the report is likely to add to a
   growing national push to cut the U.S. prison population, which stands
   at about 2.2 million. While that number is lower than a decade ago, the
   U.S. remains the world leader in incarceration, thanks in large measure
   to tough drug laws.

   "It was important to look at the data because of skepticism and
   misinformation about releasing people during the pandemic," said
   Cynthia Roseberry, deputy director of policy at the ACLU's justice
   division. "This should reassure skeptics who cling to mass
   incarceration as a noble solution for crime."

   Marc Levin of the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a conservative think
   tank that advocates criminal justice reform, said while there is a need
   to keep some people in prison, "decarceration" can be effective.

   "In Texas, we've had, over the last 15 years or so, a 40% drop in our
   incarceration rate and we've had a 30% drop in crime," Levin said.

   U.S. crime rates dropped precipitously this spring as many people
   sheltered at home to stem the spread of the coronavirus. With
   overcrowded jails and prisons turning into dangerous infection
   hotspots, local and state authorities sought to thin their ranks by
   cutting back on arrests, eliminating bail payment in some cases and
   taking the extraordinary step of releasing prisoners by the tens of
   thousands, many of them sick and elderly.

   Still, since the start of the pandemic, more than 50,000 prisoners have
   tested positive for the coronavirus, and more than 600 have died,
   according to the Marshall Project.

References

   1. https://www.aclu.org/

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