My biases: a) I tend towards a systems view. It is not
   exclusively a systems view. [ie - mapping is not perfect] b) I
   am contrary to narratives that make too much sense. c) I take
   what's good from fields that are good and I find the areas of
   speculation. d) The areas of speculation, I categorize as
   religious belief. e) I'm slow to accept
   systems-as-true-as-they-stand. Analogy: I see a rope bridge. I
   know the engineer who built it is a good engineer. I know the
   rope they use is strong. I know the wood is a strong wood with a
   long time that's strong. I know the statistics. I know the
   numbers. I know the probabilities. that it will hold me. So, do
   I trust the bridge to cross it? Not yet. I look at the
   environment at present. Today. How is the wind? The wet? Did I
   eat well today? Am I physical capable of crossing the bridge? Is
   it NECESSARY that I cross the rope bridge at all? Is there
   another way across? Is there something better on the other side?
   This and 1000 other possibilities run through my mind. I choose
   VERY cautiously. Very very cautiously. I may never cross the
   bridge. I can see 10 smarter-than-me friends go across. Will I
   go because they went? Not necessarily. Then again, I might. I
   might cross the bridge. But my level of certainty has to be VERY
   high for me to take more than a few steps onto the rope bridge.
   Why? Because of all the factors that could end up with me dead
   at the bottom of a ravine. I have a "certain enough to go
   across" point. But it's different in every case.