Subj : Heavy Rain/Flooding FL To : All From : Dumas Walker Date : Wed Sep 04 2024 09:49 am AWUS01 KWNH 041108 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-041707- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0973 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 708 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Areas affected...northeastern Florida Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 041107Z - 041707Z Summary...A few rounds of locally heavy rainfall are expected in northeastern Florida near the Jacksonville Metro area. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible through at least 17Z/1p EDT today. Discussion...Latest radar mosaic imagery depicts a band of convection extending from near Jacksonville, FL east-northeastward to open Gulf Stream waters near 31.3N, -79.6W. This band of convection was collocated with a surface front very near the region, with focused convergence, appreciable instability (1500 J/kg MLCAPE), and high PW/moisture content (2.3 inch PW) supporting deep convection with appreciable rainfall rates. Steering flow aloft was weak, allowing cells to migrate slowly west/west-southwestward amid 20-kt easterly 850mb flow. This regime was promoting slow movement and training of cells into the Jacksonville Metro area, where MRMS and gauge estimates of 1-5 inch rainfall totals have been noted in a few spots over the past 12 hours. The ongoing regime is expected to continue most of the day today, with Gulf Stream convection migrating west-southwestward toward northeastern Florida. Given the rates and potential for persistence of rainfall/multiple rounds of cells, a few spots of 3-5 inch rainfall totals cannot completely be ruled out through 17Z. Some of this rainfall could occur over Jacksonville Metro and pose at least localized issues with excessive runoff/flash flooding. Cook ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 30858155 30618094 30128066 29728067 29358096 29338181 29678273 30348265 30708214 --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175) .